So far in October, the exchange rate in Ukraine remains quite stable, but due to the seasonal factor, the situation may change slightly from October 20 to 26. The reason for this is the traditional increase in demand for currency from importers.
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This is warned by Taras Lesovy, director of the financial markets and investment department of Globus Bank . According to him, next week the foreign exchange market may experience the traditional October revival of demand from importers.
– Usually during this period, demand exceeds supply by 10-15% and this year no exceptions are expected. Thanks to the “managed flexibility” regime, the National Bank will promptly absorb excess demand through currency interventions, the expected weekly volume of which will not exceed $800 million, which will allow maintaining exchange rate stability, – the expert emphasizes.
Also, on October 23, at the next meeting of the NBU Monetary Committee, a conservative decision will probably be made and, most likely, the discount rate will remain at 15.5%. And other monetary instruments will most likely not be adjusted either. That is, the monetary strategy will be aimed at stable exchange rates and a strong hryvnia.
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Although military and external risks may create additional pressure, they are unlikely to provoke an increase in demand. The euro exchange rate will continue to depend on world dollar quotes, and the dollar/euro ratio will remain within 1.15−1.18. That is, in Ukraine the euro exchange rate, as before, will be traded in the range of 48−49 UAH.
The dollar exchange rate from October 20 to 26 is expected to be in the range between UAH 41.25 and UAH 41.65, with changes during the week of up to 60 kopecks per dollar.
Thus, the expert predicts that the October situation of dollar stability will generally remain, except for a small risk of its growth due to importer demand, but this will most likely be neutralized by the NBU.
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Previously, “FACTS” wrote about which dollars you should not buy and what to pay attention to when exchanging.
