Back in mid-August, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine wanted to pass a bill on virtual assets in the first reading, which would partially legalize cryptocurrency and tax it. In fact, parliamentarians were able to do this 3 weeks later, on September 3, but it may happen that they were too late.
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According to the People's Deputy of Ukraine Danylo Hetmantsev , who was one of the authors of the document, the parliament adopted the document in the first reading. This document forms the legal framework for the development of the modern market and digital economy.
As another MP, Yaroslav Zheleznyak , emphasized, taxes will be 18% personal income tax and 5% military tax on profits, but in the first year of the project there will be a preferential rate of 5% + 5% military tax on profits. But who will regulate the virtual assets market — the NBU or the National Securities and Stock Market Commission — is still unknown. At the same time, this option will still be significantly changed before the second reading.
As economic expert Danilo Monin explained to “FACTS”, there is a possibility of a sharp collapse of the cryptocurrency market in the world, especially since the main digital currency, Bitcoin, fell for 18 consecutive days until September 1. However, it has recently stabilized, and the fall was recorded immediately after a new record of $124,000 on August 13.
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The expert emphasized that for now the most likely outcome is a decline in the exchange rate of various small coins, but there is another danger associated with a possible collapse of the stock market in the US. Thus, according to experts, the latter is at its peak, which already happened in 1929, 1965 and 1999 and ended with financial crises.
Danilo Monin explained that cryptocurrency is very sensitive to changes in the stock market and a collapse in the latter will inevitably cause cryptocurrency prices to plummet. At the same time, a sharp collapse in the US stock market is extremely unlikely, since:
- the US national debt has grown sharply, which is offset by printing money, and the latter is spent on the stock market;
- With the advent of online trading services, the whole world is investing in the American stock market, and the number of traders has increased to 500 million people;
- This year, there was already a very large Covid-type collapse in February-March, when the market fell by 22−30%, but it recovered quite quickly.
– The deflation of technology company bubbles is possible, but only after the feeling that the topic related to artificial intelligence, which is raising the shares of some companies, will pass and there will be an understanding that this does not have that effect. But this is unlikely to be 2025 or even 2026. Especially since Trump's efforts are forming support for investment in the US economy, which is positive compared to expectations, – says the expert.
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At the same time, Danilo Monin emphasizes that in this case there will be a gradual decline in the stock market, which will not greatly affect the cryptocurrency rate. The interlocutor of “FACTS” associates the sharp collapse with something global. For example, if it comes to the understanding that China has won the competition, or a new global financial crisis occurs. At the same time, the financial crisis is now being “poured” with money, and the stock market is starting to grow again on it, but it is precisely such a collapse that can bring down the cryptocurrency until the stock market grows again in the USA.
Meanwhile, cryptocurrency is becoming popular not only among law-abiding citizens, but also among criminals.
