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Tetyana Yermolenko
Correspondent
What will happen to car prices in the fall of 2025 – expert forecasts
The Ukrainian automotive market in 2025 continues to demonstrate resilience and adaptability to war and economic instability, despite difficult geopolitical circumstances and energy challenges. Experts note dramatic changes in consumer preferences and structural transformation of the market. What trends determine the demand for cars and how the market structure is changing – read on the business portal Delo.ua.
Maintaining demand for used cars
The demand for used cars remains high due to the limited purchasing power of the population and the instability of incomes. According to the Institute for Automotive Market Research, in the first quarter of 2025, Ukrainians purchased 14.3 thousand new passenger cars, which is 16.5% less than in the same period in 2024 (17.1 thousand units). At the same time, the number of used car registrations is approximately 85-90% of the total number of registrations, which is 4-5 times higher than sales of new cars and indicates high demand for budget options for vehicles.
The average age of cars registered in Ukraine is 12-15 years, with the largest share being cars manufactured between 2008 and 2015. Cars with an engine capacity of 1.4-2.0 liters, mainly German, Japanese and Korean, remain popular.
Sales leaders: crossovers and electric vehicles
Crossovers are clearly the leader among new cars, reflecting the global trend of moving from sedans to SUVs. The Renault Duster and Toyota RAV4 lead the sales rankings, with 972 and 694 units respectively in the first quarter of 2025. Other popular models include the Toyota Land Cruiser Prado (587 units), BYD Song Plus (521 units), Skoda Kodiaq (445 units) and Hyundai Tucson (398 units).
The advantage of crossovers is explained by their versatility, increased cross-country ability (important in conditions of damaged infrastructure) and psychological sense of security. The share of crossovers in the structure of new car sales reaches 65-70%.
The electric vehicle segment is experiencing exponential growth, which is radically changing the structure of the Ukrainian car fleet. In July 2025, a record 9,716 electric cars were registered in Ukraine, which is 180% more than in July 2024 (3,470 units). Of these, 53% are used cars from abroad (mainly the USA, Germany, the Netherlands), 31% are domestic resales, and 16% are new electric cars. In 7 months of 2025, about 55 thousand electric cars have already been registered, which is almost equal to the entire 2024.
Economic factors and infrastructure
The growth in demand for electric vehicles does not stop even against the background of an increase in electricity tariffs from UAH 4.32 to UAH 7.96 per kWh for household consumers. According to expert calculations, the average cost of “refueling” an electric vehicle at home is UAH 150-200 per 100 km of mileage, while a gasoline car requires UAH 350-450 for the same distance. According to expert forecasts, even at a cost of UAH 15-16 per kWh at high-speed charging stations (versus the current UAH 12-14), electric vehicles remain economically advantageous compared to gasoline (UAH 55-60/l) or gas (UAH 35-40/l) cars.
The charging infrastructure network is actively developing: as of August 2025, there are over 6,500 public charging points operating in Ukraine (compared to 4,200 at the end of 2024), of which about 1,800 are high-speed DC charging. The highest concentration of stations is observed in Kyiv, Lviv, Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv regions.
However, from January 1, 2026, it is planned to abolish preferential customs clearance for electric vehicles (current rate of 0% duty versus standard 10% + VAT 20%), which may lead to an increase in prices for imported electric cars by 25-35%. Therefore, a significant increase in demand for electric vehicles is expected in the second half of 2025, with peak sales in October-December, when Ukrainians will try to take advantage of the benefits.
Forecasts for 2025
According to conservative estimates by the Institute for Automotive Market Research, in 2025 the total volume of the new and used car market in Ukraine will remain at the level of 2024 and will amount to 280-300 thousand registrations. It is expected that the total replenishment of the electric car fleet will amount to about 70-75 thousand units (compared to 45 thousand in 2024), in particular due to the activation of imports from the USA (40% of total imports), Germany (25%), China (15%) and other countries.
The share of electric vehicles in the overall fleet is projected to grow from the current 2.1% to 3.5-4% by the end of 2025. At the same time, the most popular will remain Tesla Model 3 and Model Y, Nissan Leaf, BMW i3, Volkswagen ID.4, and Chinese brands BYD and MG.
