Leicester to draw with Manchester City? Has Jones Knows lost the plot? Read why he thinks a title twist is coming as he takes aim at all 10 Premier League encounters.
- Stream the Premier League with NOW | Get Sky Sports
Aston Villa vs Newcastle, Saturday 12.30pm
Aston Villa’s hot form of late should come with a warning.
Yes, they’ve won six of their last seven, conceding just two goals in that period but Unai Emery’s men haven’t played anyone in the top 10 in a very favourable run of fixtures. There has been a huge overperformance in terms of their defensive process, too. Those two goals conceded have come with a backdrop of 8.35 worth of expected goals against, pointing towards a six-goal defiance of the data. An away win at 21/20 with Sky Bet is a tempter for ultra-consistent Newcastle but backing them to profit from set pieces is a sharper angle in.
- Win £250,000 with Super 6!
- Bet with Sky Bet | Download the Sky Sports App
- Premier League live table
Newcastle lead the metrics for shots (156) and expected goals (15.5) created from set pieces this season in the Premier League yet have only scored nine goals via that method – six teams have scored more. I’d expect that goals record to become more aligned with the expected goals data over the next few weeks, and Villa are quite forthcoming at shipping chances from corners and free-kicks.
Only Bournemouth (17) have shipped more goals via that method than Villa’s tally of 12 this season and in their last nine games they have allowed 4.19 worth of expected goals on their goal from set pieces – the third worst return in the Premier League over that time. That makes Sven Botman (50/1 with Sky Bet), Dan Burn (50/1) and Fabian Schar (33/1) all runners in the first goalscorer market.
Trending
- Premier League Darts: Night 11 LIVE!
- Hatzidakis apologises to Robertson over elbow | FA to take no action
- Bayern suspend and fine Mane for punching team-mate Sane
- Transfer Centre LIVE! Spurs, Palace & West Ham keen on Feyenoord boss Slot
- PL Predictions: Title twist! Leicester to nick draw at Man City
- Smith apologises for homophobic remarks to Eubank Jr
- Liverpool target Rice, Caicedo as Bellingham alternatives
- Mane to apologise to Bayern team-mates for Sane punch | Could Mane leave?
- Papers: Tottenham make Kompany top target to replace Conte
- Edwards not fighting at UFC London | Covington in October next?
- Video
- Latest News
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Any winners for Jones Knows at the weekend?
- Liverpool 2-2 Arsenal – 22/1
- West Ham to win to nil – 7/2
- Bournemouth to win vs Leicester – 3/1
- Forest +3 offsides vs Villa – 11/10
- Marc Roca 2+ fouls vs Palace – 11/10
- Aston Villa 2-0 Nottingham Forest – 11/1
- Fulham 0-1 West Ham – 8/1
Chelsea vs Brighton, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Chelsea have won just once this season from 14 games against current top-half teams – and that victory vs Aston Villa in October was a fortunate one as Kepa Arrizabalaga had the game of his life. It’s therefore little surprise to see Brighton rated as the better side by the markets for this trip to the Bridge – this is of course despite Chelsea paying them £21.5m for their entire coaching staff and then forking out another reported £13m to fire Graham Potter and his merry men.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
When prompted by a question from a young fan, Brighton manager Roberto De Zerbi hinted that Kaoru Mitoma will still be at the club next season.
Despite not scoring for over six hours of football, during which they have had 61 shots, I’m nervous about being too dismissive of Chelsea as the talent and quality is there for them to turn the taps on at any time. Brighton proved last weekend at Tottenham that their bid for a Champions League spot is built on plenty of substance, but somehow they lost. I’m happy to leave them alone here at 13/8 with Sky Bet and head to the shots market.
Also See:
Joao Felix has posted two or more shots on target in four of his last seven starts for Chelsea and Frank Lampard seems keen to play him front and centre. I’d expect him to be the main source of inspiration again for the Blues and the 5/2 with Sky Bet for him to hit the target at least twice does look a little chunky.
Image: Joao Felix is 5/2 to register two shots on target vs Brighton
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Everton vs Fulham, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Fulham are a great example for geeky people like to me showcase just how important performance metrics, like expected goals data, can help to help rate true performance level. Marco Silva’s team had been defying some woeful expected goals figures – the worst in the division when it comes to defensive process – to be challenging for Europe. But that type of form was always going to be unsustainable and we’ve managed to get on the right side of their decline which is now five straight losses. That should become six here at Goodison Park which is now a devilishly difficult place for visiting teams to perform.
- Premier League relegation fight: Who’s in trouble?
Brentford, Leeds and Arsenal were all beaten to nil by Sean Dyche’s team and Fulham’s recent problems in attack may send them packing in the same way. Their expected goals per-90 average of 0.7 over their last six Premier League games is the worst of any team in the league as their problems run deeper than just missing the suspended Aleksandar Mitrovic.
Everton to win and under 2.5 goals at 3/1 with Sky Bet is worth some serious consideration.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0
Southampton vs Crystal Palace, Saturday 3pm
Crystal Palace fans might be hoping this winning run and goals, goals, goals under Roy Hodgson slows down. Do they want Hodgson – a safe yet uninspiring manager – given a two-year deal? Unless being 11th in the Premier League is the ceiling of what the club can aspire to.
Aston Villa, Brentford and Brighton are proof that teams can punch with the big boys if shrewd decisions are made off the pitch. Palace aren’t far away. Let the fans dream.
Image: Roy Hodgson has overseen two wins in his two games
-
Transfer Centre LIVE! Spurs, Palace & West Ham keen on Feyenoord boss Slot
With Palace no longer in relegation trouble, the absolute need for points rests with Southampton for this one. That plays a big part at this time of the season. There isn’t much evidence to showcase that Ruben Selles has found a formula capable of catapulting Saints out of grave danger but they are playing with more tactical maturity which has led to eight points being taken from their last eight games. All six of their Premier League wins this season have been by one goal. It’s 100/30 with Sky Bet for another.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Tottenham vs Bournemouth, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Tottenham are basically still managed by Antonio Conte. The tactics remain the same. Spurs rely on playing in key moments in a match, with focus on their strikers being clinical while inviting the opposition to have plenty of territory. Bournemouth, who have won three of their last five, will have nothing to fear.
And there are some fancy prices knocking around on striker Dominic Solanke.
Since November, Solanke’s attacking metrics in front of goal in terms of expected goals – the quality of chances dropping his way – have him ranked as eighth in the entire league with a per-90 return of 0.42. That’s 0.03 more than Harry Kane.
Image: Dominic Solanke is 200/1 to score a hat-trick vs Tottenham
However, Solanke has only found the net twice in that period, underperforming according to the metrics by nearly four goals. To label him a wasteful finisher, though, is way off the mark as to score 29 goals in a Championship season tells me he has the minerals to finish big chances. I’m hoping the floodgates open.
And whilst Bournemouth remain in flowing mood in the final third, Solanke’s goalscorer prices are soaked in value. You can get 12/1 with Sky Bet on him opening the scoring and 4/1 on him scoring in the match. I’d even go as far to say that the 40/1 for a brace and the 200/1 for a hat-trick are also wildly overpriced.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
Wolves vs Brentford, Saturday 3pm
We shouldn’t underestimate what a shrewd move it was by Wolves to get Julen Lopeteugi – they were bottom when the Premier League resumed after the World Cup. Every team in that position after 15 games has been relegated in the last seven Premier League seasons so for him to oversee a 21-point haul and guide them to 13th showcases what an impressive operator he is.
Wolves haven’t drawn any of their last 13 Premier League home games but a low scoring one could be on the cards with draw kings Brentford in town. Thomas Frank’s men have been involved in 13 stalemates this season – the most of any team – and might just be venturing towards ‘nothing to play for’ territory now which makes them hard to fancy for win purposes. The draw is the biggest price of the three match outcomes so at 12/5 with Sky Bet it makes sense to go down that avenue.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Manchester City vs Leicester, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
- Get Sky Sports | Download the Sky Sports App
- Get NOW to stream big moments
I am very edgy about Manchester City after they have played a Champions League knockout match, especially one in which they expend so much emotional energy. Even Pep Guardiola said he was “emotionally destroyed” after their win over Bayern Munich.
There is a pattern emerging of them being vulnerable. After 18 knockout games where the tie was realistically in the balance, they have lost on seven occasions in the next domestic match – to Leeds (1-2), Chelsea (0-1), Chelsea (1-2), Wigan (0-1), Manchester United (2-3), Tottenham (2-3) and Liverpool (2-3). They have conceded a goal in 13 of those 18 encounters, too. Of course, the sample size is small but there does seem a drop in levels after a big midweek effort in Europe. It’s enough for me to swerve City at 1/7 with Sky Bet.
- How Stones is flourishing in new hybrid role at Man City
- CL hits and misses: Pep delight at Silva | Kimmich deserved better
The main problem here is the opposition. Leicester have taken just one point from their last eight Premier League games, and the appointment of a new manager in Dean Smith also makes life difficult from a prediction perspective.
So, what is the bet then? I have toyed with plenty of angles but have come down on Leicester goals. Incredibly, Leicester have scored eight goals in their last two visits to the Etihad, while they have found the net in 18 of their last 21 away games – including a 15-game streak at one stage. There is talent in this side.
Both teams to score it is then at Evens with Sky Bet. And I’ll play the 1-1 correct score at 14/1.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
West Ham vs Arsenal, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
- Get Sky Sports | Download the Sky Sports App
- Get NOW to stream big moments
I am going to roll out a staple bet on West Ham home games regarding their slow-starting nature, especially when the atmosphere is flat and after a European night.
Opposition teams have managed to post two or more shots on target in 11 of the last 13 first halves of Premier League games at the London Stadium. The only two that failed to manage that were Everton in Frank Lampard’s last game and Southampton.
I’d fully expect Arsenal to cover their shots on target in the first half line of three or more at 10/11, but I’d go further than that with confident expectations around them starting fast. With no other fixtures to contend with, the Gunners are flying out of the traps despite the pressure of this title race. They’ve gone in at half-time in front in all four of their last four fixtures, including dominating Liverpool in the opening knockings last weekend.
So, a way of getting an Arsenal positive result on your side at a respectable price rather than simply backing the away win at 8/15 would be to back Arsenal to win the first half at 11/10 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-3
Nottingham Forest vs Manchester United, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
- Get Sky Sports | Download the Sky Sports App
- Get NOW to stream big moments
Manchester United should be in businesslike mood. No time for thrills. Just a ‘job done’ mentality.
United’s demanding schedule of playing four games in 11 days – against the backdrop of having played more games (50) than any other team in Europe – is bound to prevent them from being at full throttle. Does that make them vulnerable here at odds-on? Not when looking at their record against teams currently 10th or lower in the table as every single one of United’s away Premier League points have come in those matches, taking 20 from a possible 24.
With the return of Casemiro an added boost, it’s hard to see how a confidence-stricken Forest can truly hurt Erik ten Hag’s men in a game of this nature: United have only conceded four goals in those eight away games against bottom-half teams.
Image: Casemiro's return should make it tough for Forest to score
Marcus Rashford’s absence will be felt, though, considering he’s scored 20 goals in 28 appearances since the World Cup and has bagged four goal involvements vs Nottingham Forest in three games across all competitions this season.
A Manchester United win and under 3.5 goals at 11/8 with Sky Bet did tempt me but I’d like the added security of Forest grinding something out at the City Ground, like they have done vs Liverpool, Man City and Chelsea this season. That makes the under 2.5 goals line at Evens look a great way to get plenty of likely correct scores on your side.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1
Leeds vs Liverpool, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
- Get Sky Sports | Download the Sky Sports App
- Get NOW to stream big moments
Come on, own up, who is seriously punting Liverpool here at 4/6 with Sky Bet?
It’s up there with one of most staggeringly short prices of the season. And we must take advantage.
A clear way to diagnose a team with serious mentality and confidence issues is by looking at their away form. Liverpool have lost 12 of 22 away games in all competitions this season – and their record at teams lower than them in the current table is remarkable for a side that came close to winning every single trophy last season.
In eight games, they are winless and have failed to score in six of those matches, including defeats at Wolves, Nottingham Forest, Bournemouth and Brentford.
- Is Van Dijk out of form or on the decline?
- Liverpool target Rice, Caicedo as Bellingham alternatives
The overall aggregate score in those matches is 10-3 to the opposition. Astonishing.
Leeds most certainly have the aggression, organisation and raucous stadium required to follow in many of their relegation rivals footsteps and beat Liverpool at home.
Yes, a 5-1 defeat at home to Palace is bound to send huge warning signals out that relegation to the Championship is a strong possibility but – I’ve said it before – when a team is on the end of a bit of a hiding, there is a theory that their next game will be all about being defensively secure. West Ham were spanked 5-1 at home by Newcastle but that result is now a distant memory having followed it up with a gritty but decisive 1-0 win at Fulham.
Image: Javi Gracia can inspire Leeds to a result at Elland Road
This will be backs-to-the-wall-type football – but that is enough to beat this Liverpool side away from the comfort blanket of Anfield.
The 5/2 with Sky Bet for Leeds in the ‘draw no bet’ market, meaning we’ll get stakes refunded if it’s a draw and a 5/2 winner if Leeds win, is simply outstanding. Or keep it simple and back the 6/5 for Leeds to win or draw.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0
Win £250,000 with Super 6!
Another Saturday, another chance to win £250,000 with Super 6. Play for free, entries by 3pm.
Sourse: skysports.com
