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Tetyana Yermolenko
Correspondent
Will electric cars replace gasoline cars by 2030?
Every year, there are more and more electric cars, both around the world and in Ukraine in particular. At the same time, gasoline cars still dominate, by inertia, due to convenience or habit. But the trend is changing, and quite quickly. Can electric cars really replace cars with internal combustion engines by 2030? The Delo.ua editorial team found out what factors are pushing this transition and what can slow it down.
Global context: the electric surge is gaining momentum
The global automotive market is undergoing a real revolution. According to estimates by the analytical company BloombergNEF, the share of electric cars in global sales could reach 40% by 2030, and over 70% by 2040. These figures are supported by large-scale investments by auto giants: in 2023 alone, Tesla, BYD, Volkswagen Group and General Motors invested over $180 billion in the development of electric lines, gradually abandoning the production of gasoline models.
Amid the investment frenzy, regulatory pressure is also intensifying. The European Union has decided to ban the sale of new cars with gasoline and diesel engines from 2035. Norway plans to do so in 2025, the Netherlands in 2030. The United Kingdom has set a deadline of 2035, and a number of American states, including California and New York, are preparing similar bans.
China has a massive program of subsidies and charging infrastructure development that has already made it the largest electric vehicle market in the world. In 2023, the Chinese purchased 8.1 million electric cars – 60% of global sales.
Technological breakthrough: batteries are getting cheaper, mileage is increasing
A key factor in the success of electric vehicles is the rapid decline in the cost of lithium-ion batteries. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), their cost has fallen by 85% over the past 10 years and continues to decline. Modern electric cars can travel 400-500 km on a single charge, which has practically brought them on par with their gasoline counterparts.
In parallel, fast charging is developing: new 350 kW stations allow you to recharge the battery to 80% in 15-20 minutes. Companies such as ChargePoint, Ionity and Tesla Supercharger are deploying thousands of such points around the world.
Ukrainian realities: demand is growing, but barriers remain
Electric cars in Ukraine currently account for only 2-3% of the total car fleet. According to Ukravtoprom, in 2024 Ukrainians purchased over 17 thousand electric cars, which is 57% more than a year earlier. The most popular models are the Nissan Leaf (42% of the market), Tesla Model 3 (18%) and Volkswagen ID.4 (12%).
However, the main barriers remain serious. High initial cost, because the average price of a new electric car in Ukraine is $35-40 thousand, which is twice as expensive as an equivalent gasoline car. Let's not forget about the problem of a shortage of charging stations. At the end of 2024, about 17,000 public charging stations were operating in Ukraine, servicing more than 120,000 electric vehicles. While a mass transition requires at least 35 thousand.
The market is also hampered by the lack of large-scale government incentives. Unlike European countries, where buyers receive subsidies of up to €9,000, Ukraine only has exemptions from import duties and taxes upon first registration. And then, from 2026, these benefits are planned to be abolished, which could lead to an increase in the cost of electric cars by several thousand euros.
Economy and environment: mathematics in favor of electricity
According to the International Energy Agency, electric cars are already more economical to operate. The cost of “refueling” with electricity is 4-5 times lower: 100 km of run costs $2-3 versus $12-15 for a gasoline car. Maintenance is also simpler and cheaper, as the electric motor has only 20 moving parts versus 2,000 in an internal combustion engine.
According to McKinsey & Company experts, by 2027 the total cost of owning an electric car will be equal to that of a gasoline car, and after 2030 it will become significantly lower.
The environmental factor is also critically important. According to the EcoFactorTech platform, electric vehicles generate 40-60% less CO₂ emissions over the entire life cycle than their gasoline counterparts. Given the increasing share of renewable energy in the global energy mix, this gap will only increase.
Challenges of the transition period
Despite optimistic forecasts, the electrification of vehicles faces serious challenges. The power systems of most countries are not ready for a mass transition. The problem is that the additional load from millions of electric cars could lead to power outages.
There also remains the issue of disposing of used batteries and the shortage of lithium, cobalt, and other rare metals needed for their production.
Forecast for 2030: critical mass without complete displacement
Analysts agree on one thing: electric cars will not be able to completely replace gasoline cars by 2030, but they will reach critical mass. Consulting company PwC predicts that electric vehicles will occupy 30-40% of the global new car market by the end of the decade.
Gasoline cars will remain on the secondary market and in specific segments for a long time. Especially, such sectors as heavy transport, agriculture, remote regions with poor infrastructure. But there are forecasts that by 2030 every third new car in Ukraine will be electric.
For this transformation to happen faster and more effectively, countries need to not only stimulate demand through subsidies and benefits, but also systematically prepare energy grids, develop charging infrastructure, and adapt the legislative framework. After all, the electric future involves not so much replacing gas stations with sockets, but a comprehensive restructuring of the entire transport ecosystem.
