The prevailing belief among surveyed decision-makers is that Poland's economic situation will gradually improve over the next decade – according to the report “The technological future of Poland in the imagination of decision-makers”, prepared by the Polish Economic Institute.
The report states that sociotechnical imaginaries are a relatively new concept that is gaining popularity in social sciences. The term refers to collective ideas about the future that influence the development of technology, politics, and society. It is indicated that a partial goal of the report is to introduce this concept to Polish readers and show how it can be applied in the analysis of digitalization processes and public administration research.
“In recent years, digital policy has become one of the most important areas of state governance. Both at the national and European level, digital transformation is not only a technical undertaking, but also a space in which visions of the future are shaped. At the center of these processes are strategic documents such as the European Union program 'The Road to a Digital Decade' and the Polish 'National Digitalization Strategy',” it was written.
It was pointed out that respondents expressed concerns about the possibility of overregulation of the technology sector.
“Excessive regulation, especially in comparison with more liberal assumptions of technology policy outside the EU, would lead to a decrease in the competitiveness of the Polish and European economies. Too restrictive regulations may hinder the operation of domestic technology companies, as well as deter foreign investors who are looking for more flexible conditions for development,” it was written.
In the eyes of decision-makers, technological regulations are associated with both opportunities and threats. On the one hand, they enable the protection of society from threats resulting from uncontrolled technological development, but on the other hand, they require an appropriate balance so as not to stifle the potential for innovation and not to hinder the development of the Polish technology sector.
It was reported that in the context of shaping regulations and implementing the vision of an active state, two important actors appear in the visions of decision-makers: technology corporations and the European Union.
From the perspective of the sociotechnical imaginaries of dominant state institutions, technology corporations – especially the largest companies in the big tech sector – are treated as both a resource and a challenge. On the one hand, decision-makers see them as a source of advanced knowledge and tools that can support digital transformation by providing proven solutions.
On the other hand, large technology corporations pose a challenge to the state – primarily due to their enormous resources and influence on citizen consumers. In this imaginary, big tech appears as an entity whose presence goes beyond national regulatory frameworks, which challenges states to find effective mechanisms of control and cooperation.
It was pointed out that the European Union plays an important role here as an entity that, thanks to its scale and political integration, can act as an equal partner in relations with global technology giants. Decision-makers emphasize that the EU, thanks to its size and structure, gives member states greater subjectivity in negotiations with big tech.
Common regulations and the EU legal framework strengthen the position of member states, making them more influential in relation to corporations that often monopolize the digital market. In addition, representatives of Polish institutions see that the EU plays a strong, mostly positive role in shaping national digital policies, creating a coherent foundation for the development of digitalization throughout Europe.
At the same time, decision-makers point out that Poland's relationship with the European Union is not one-sided – member states also have an influence on shaping EU regulations. Although people dealing with relations with the EU point to the asymmetry of this influence, where the influence of EU institutions on Poland is usually stronger than Poland's influence on the EU.
“The priorities for Poland, which emerge from our discussions, for the next decade are the digitalization of companies, the digitalization of public administration, increasing cybersecurity, developing digital infrastructure and combating digital exclusion. The digitalization of companies remains one of the greatest challenges. Decision-makers indicate that many companies do not implement modern technologies because they do not see the benefits of such action,” it was written.
It was stated that the digitalization of companies and increasing their competitiveness, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, is an important task of the state.
“In this perspective, the development of digital competences is also an important thread, because Polish society is dominated by a low level of digital skills. Decision-makers consider the development of digital competences to be a necessity, pointing to the need for broad-based educational programs that will raise the level of digital knowledge and skills among company employees. The digitization of public administration is also among the most important priorities,” it was written.
“Digitalized public administration not only streamlines official processes, but also increases citizens' access to public services and shortens the time it takes to process a given official matter. These activities are also related to reducing digital barriers, especially in rural and peripheral areas, where the lack of infrastructure and weaker digital skills contribute to deepening digital exclusion,” it added.
Another priority was cybersecurity, which has become increasingly important after Russia's aggression against Ukraine. Given the uncertainty on the eastern border, decision-makers emphasize the need to build infrastructure that will increase Poland's resilience to cyberattacks.
“The development of digital infrastructure, especially in the implementation of 5G technology, and in the longer term 6G, is also an important element of the digitalization strategy. Connectivity is the foundation for further digital transformation and enables the use of technologies such as the Internet of Things (IoT) or autonomous industrial systems, and also creates new opportunities for the development of artificial intelligence. Key technologies from the point of view of decision-makers are artificial intelligence, 5G and 6G, quantum computers and renewable energy sources,” it was written.
Another clear theme is investing in sectors where Poland already has solid foundations and the potential to build competitive advantages, such as biotechnology. Decision-makers emphasize that the development of innovation in areas where Poland is able to gain a leading position can contribute to the sustainable development of an economy based on knowledge and high technology.
It was reported that the dominant belief among the surveyed decision-makers is that Poland's economic situation will gradually improve over the next decade. In the dominant imagination, the future of the Polish economy and society combines elements of unpredictability with hope for gradual, stable development. Respondents do not expect groundbreaking changes, but rather gradual improvement in the area of work automation and the related increase in the productivity of the economy.
First, there is a consensus that technologies such as artificial intelligence will play a key role, both in the economy and in public administration. Changes are mainly expected in software and process automation, not in hardware changes.
Secondly, the future is perceived as non-linear and difficult to predict. This is associated with concerns about processes that are not technological in nature, such as climate catastrophe or demographic crisis. Thirdly, respondents see the need to build social technological awareness and the need to develop a system for the fair distribution of benefits resulting from technological development. So that the negative consequences of non-technological and technology-related threats do not outweigh the potential benefits.
Among the respondents' answers to the question about the tasks on the way to achieving the desired version of the future, the main theme turned out to be the problem of centralizing the country's digitalization agenda.
“However, different and contradictory visions are emerging within the administration regarding the issue of centralizing the digitalization agenda. On the one hand, there are voices about the need to centralize the country's digitalization process through a unit designated for this very task. The purpose of such a unit could be to create policies that would be implemented by the public administration,” it was written.
Another emerging issue is the establishment of a unit that will not so much set the direction of digitalization, but rather coordinate the activities of individual ministries. In this vision, digitalization affects all areas of state activity, which is why most entities are forced to implement activities in the area of digitalization. The dispersion of activities without a coordinating entity can lead to the waste of public funds, for example, by performing the same activities by public entities that do not see each other.
However, the statements also included an opposing position expressing negative sentiment towards the centralization of the digitalization agenda. According to some respondents, the horizontal nature of the country's digitalization process suggests that there is no need for a separate specialist institution dealing with digitalization, because this leads to a failure to develop appropriate competences within other public institutions.
“Automation, understood as both an opportunity and a threat to the country's future, dominates the imagination of Polish digital policy. Of all technological processes, the growth of automation is estimated as the scenario with the highest probability of occurrence. At the same time, the importance of actions that must take place as soon as possible is emphasized in order to reduce the potential negative effects of automation on the social fabric,” it was written.
“On the other hand, automation potentially offers a chance and hope for solving the upcoming demographic crisis. The development of technology is able to increase the productivity of the economy to such an extent that the demographic gap will not threaten the standard of living in Poland,” it added.
It was reported that the dominant imaginary also includes concerns about the future, especially cybersecurity and disinformation, as well as citizens' mental health and privacy. Along with the planned development of digital technologies, a scenario is strongly anticipated in which trust in public institutions decreases as a result of disinformation campaigns, for example in the context of Poland's geopolitical situation and Russian aggression against Ukraine.
It was indicated that a clear trend in the respondents' statements was technological optimism, according to which technological progress ultimately leads to an improvement in the quality of life and an increase in social well-being. Technological optimists viewed technology as a tool that enables the implementation of progressive changes and development, seeing it as a driver of economic growth and a factor improving the quality of life. This type of thinking was characterized by a positive assessment of the potential effects of digitization.
The study was conducted with the participation of people who can actually shape digital policies and strategies in Poland, i.e. people in management positions in public administration, including ministers, deputy ministers, presidents, directors and deputy directors in regulatory offices, ministries, the Chancellery of the Prime Minister and public research institutes (see the methodological annex). As part of the study, 13 in-depth research interviews were conducted. (PAP Biznes)
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