Let our tipster Jones Knows guide your through a busy Premier League weekend with his array of insight, analysis, tips and predictions.
How many winners last week for Jones Knows?
- Southampton most corners vs Aston Villa 11/10
- Chelsea to win to nil 6/5
- Liverpool to win to nil 6/5
- Norwich to have 13 or more shots 5/4
- Harry Kane to score once (6/5) & twice (11/2)
Brighton vs Liverpool, Saturday 12.30pm
When plotting their way through the run-in, Liverpool fans will have had a circle around this fixture as a potential hiccup.
Even though they have won just three of their last 23 matches (90 minutes only) and head into this one on the back of four straight defeats, Brighton are a fiddly team for the big boys to negotiate their way past.
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In their last 26 games against teams that finished in the top nine of the Premier League last season, Brighton have only lost four games by more than one goal. Included in that run is a 1-0 win at Anfield, a 1-1 draw with Klopp’s men at the Amex last season and the 2-2 draw from earlier this campaign. They should be able to land the odds with a +2 handicap.
Brighton’s shots line is also worth a look. In five fixtures against Liverpool, Brighton have posted shot totals that read: 11, 13, 12, 12 and nine. Potter’s men play through the lines quickly when given the chance and despite Liverpool having a very solid defensive record, space is afforded to the opposition as exploited by West Ham last weekend. They had 13 at Anfield and I’ll be surprised if Brighton don’t get into double figures.
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And why not throw in some Brighton offsides for good measure? Liverpool’s offside trap is a thing of beauty and although the markets have aligned their algorithms to the amount of opposition offsides in recent weeks, the 8/15 on Brighton to be caught offside three or more times should land when looking at the averages. Klopp’s men have caught teams offside 3.9 times per 90 minutes this season while Brighton were caught out five times in the reverse fixture.
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My advice is to combine all three angles into a tasty same-game multi that involves Brighton to win, draw or lose by one, to have three or more offsides and 11 or more shots. The 4/1 with Sky Bet looks pretty tidy to me.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | BETTING ANGLE: Brighton to be caught offside four or more times (11/10 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Brighton +2 handicap, to have three or more offsides and 11 or more shots (4/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Back the Jones Knows 6/1 treble!
20 or more Brentford booking points vs Burnley, Aston Villa double chance vs West Ham & Under 2.5 goals in Leeds vs Norwich
Brentford vs Burnley, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £250,000!
The tough fixture list is relenting for Brentford. After a run of nine straight games against teams in the top 10, fixtures with those around them in the table have sparked them back into life. I want to back them here.
Apart from against Manchester City, on all occasions this season when they have not won the match at home, Thomas Frank’s side have won the expected-goals battle – even in the 3-3 draw with Liverpool and the 1-0 defeat to Chelsea.
It is a process which is actually the sixth-best home record in the Premier League when it comes to expected goals. The 11/10 for a home win does look juicy.
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With the fussy Paul Tierney in charge, a bet in the cards market has taken my fancy.
No referee has dished out more cards than Tierney this season (82) at a per-90 minute average of 4.2. Hopefully, he’ll be busy booking Brentford players in this one.
- Over 200,000 Super 6 players are predicting a narrow 2-1 win for Burnley in what is a huge game in the context of Premier League survival, while just a shorter amount of Super 6 entrants are sitting on the fence with a 1-1 draw.
Frank’s side played with much more intensity and aggression in their 3-1 win at Norwich, making 18 fouls – a season high for them – and picked up five yellow cards. That desire to press higher, rather than sit off, has been a common theme in their fixtures against teams in the bottom eight. They have averaged 32.5 booking points in those 10 fixtures this season and nine of those fixtures have seen them pick up 20 or more booking points. You can get 6/5 with Sky Bet on that happening again in this fixture with a referee that loves a card. That’s a bet for me.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0 | BETTING ANGLE: 20 or more Brentford booking points (6/5 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Manchester United vs Tottenham, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports
I’m having trust issues with both of these teams.
Having confidence when making informed betting decisions is absolutely crucial to coming out in front, so this is a tough one. I’ve decided it’s a case of which defence can I trust the most when it comes to making an outright call on the match. On that basis, Spurs just come out in front.
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The reason for that could be Eric Dier.
Antonio Conte has heralded Dier as “world class” and his importance to this Tottenham side looks clear to see. In 12 games where Dier has started in the Premier League as the central defender in a back three, Spurs have lost just once (W8, D3) and have conceded just seven goals, keeping seven clean sheets.
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However, instead of backing Spurs, I’d much rather invest in Harry Kane being a decisive factor in this fixture such is his current ruthless touch in front of goal. In his last 12 Premier League appearances, the England forward has put aside his early season struggles and has netted nine times, posting a very impressive conversion rate of 17 per cent. He has also scored in four of Tottenham’s last five Premier League away wins. I’m going to rinse and repeat our successful angle of last week in the win over Everton by backing Kane to score once (17/10), twice (11/1) and to net a hat-trick (66/1).
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | BETTING ANGLE: Harry Kane to score (7/4 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Chelsea vs Newcastle, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
Newcastle are unbeaten in their last nine Premier League games, winning six of those. And with the off-the-field issues at Chelsea, a few may be tempted to take the 9/1 with Sky Bet on offer for an away win. Not me though.
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Thomas Tuchel and his players are unlikely to be too badly affected by the Roman Abramovich saga in the short term. Plus, Newcastle are meeting a fully tuned and authoritative Chelsea that have won their last four games. I would be very surprised if they can’t beat Eddie Howe’s men – but their price of 3/10 with Sky Bet does tell you that.
Tuchel, like the astute manager he is, has managed to fix the Romelu Lukaku issue through the middle of Chelsea’s attack by shoehorning the excellent Kai Havertz into that central role. It’s not always obvious how much Havertz affects a game as his style is quite relaxed and he’s not exactly blessed with electric pace. But what a graceful and intelligent player he is – and one that has a significant eye for a goal that will only get deadlier over the next few years the more experience he gets.
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He has five goals in his last six appearances for Chelsea in all competitions and he’ll be popular in the goalscoring markets here, although the 10/3 to fire first and 6/5 anytime do look a little skinny against such an improved defence like Newcastle’s.
I’ve stuck my rod in then to go fishing for a bigger price and have caught the 14/1 with Sky Bet for Havertz to score a header – something he has done three times already this season. That works out at a headed goal nearly every four games, so those odds are worth a small play.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0 | BETTING ANGLE: Kai Havertz to score a header (14/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Everton vs Wolves, Sunday 2pm
A huge game for Everton. Home wins are a must if they are to scramble away from danger.
However, from what we’ve seen so far this is going to be a relegation season for the club based on the vital statistics. They have the fewest points (22), most defeats (15) and most goals conceded (46) after 25 games of any of their Premier League campaigns. Frank Lampard must get them believing they are as good as their CVs suggest they are. I can’t back them here, though, against such a hardened team like Wolves.
The big difference between the two teams is the way they defend their box. Everton crack under the smallest of pressure while Wolves can withstand plenty of force – as shown by their defensive record on the road, conceding just 11 away goals – only Man City and Chelsea have conceded fewer. I’d expect Wolves to put pressure on the Toffees from every set-piece situation.
Romain Saiss is a player possessing a good attacking instinct in and around the box – and he has averaged 0.52 shots per 90 minutes this season which ranks him as one of the more dangerous centre-backs in the Premier League when it comes to attacking threat.
Image: Romain Saiss celebrates after giving Wolves the lead at Brighton
With Everton’s inability to defend their box – Max Kilman opened the scoring for Wolves with a header in the reverse fixture – I like Saiss’ odds of 10/11 with Sky Bet to register a shot.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | BETTING ANGLE: Romain Saiss to have a shot (10/11 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Leeds vs Norwich, Sunday 2pm
Leeds have gone from ‘Bielsa ball’ to ‘boring ball’ in the space of two weeks.
The simply woeful performance against Aston Villa would have made Leeds fans hold their Bielsa bear that little tighter at bedtime.
Even I miss him so I can’t imagine how those season-ticket holders are feeling. Thursday’s showing was stomach turning. I’d go as far to say the worst performance I’ve seen all season by a team. That is mirrored by the fact it was the second-lowest expected goals output produced by a home team in the Premier League this season (0.17).
And, this wasn’t Manchester City or Liverpool they were playing. It was Aston Villa.
Jesse Marsch will be hoping it was just one of those nights. And while making sweeping conclusions about a team on one performance isn’t a shrewd betting tactic, the lack of quality, rhythm in their attacking play and complete downward trajectory of Raphinha’s form makes them so easy to swerve at 1/2 with Sky Bet here.
Leeds have also failed to score in their last four games, it’s their worst run without a goal since 2010. Confidence isn’t exactly raging through the Norwich squad either. They are the lowest scorers in English football with just 17 goals scored and have found the net just seven times on the road – the lowest tally of any side in the top four leagues.
With such a tense, cagey game in prospect where a ‘win at any cost’ mantra will be employed by both teams, the goal line set by the markets does seem high with under 2.5 goals trading at odds against. Perhaps the algorithms have factored in too much of the goal-crazy Bielsa era. That 6/5 with Sky Bet looks best-bet-of-the-weekend material.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-0 | BETTING ANGLE: Under 2.5 goals (6/5 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Southampton vs Watford, Sunday 2pm
The corner-winning machine that is Southampton, who we have profited from on multiple occasions this season, including last weekend, is at the top of my punting list again this weekend. Adding a further 12 corners to their tally in midweek against Newcastle means they are now third in the corners table this season, rising above Chelsea on 174.
Ralph Hasenhuttl’s men have won the corner race in 15 of their last 20 Premier League games and deep-defending Watford could be in for a proper thrashing when it comes to the corner count here.
Watford have won the same amount of corners (12) in their last four games as Saints did against the Toon in midweek.
Roy Hodgson’s boys have also lost the corner race in their last six Premier League fixtures. The markets are across this angle by offering just 4/11 with Sky Bet on Saints winning this race but the Evens on them with a -2.0 corner handicap still is worth a follow. For it to land Saints need to win the race by three or more corners.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0 | BETTING ANGLE: Southampton -2.0 corners (Evens with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
West Ham vs Aston Villa, Sunday 2pm
I may sound like a broken record when it comes to West Ham but they are very easy to oppose here for a variety of reasons. Much of the negativity surrounding their chances of winning this match at 6/5 with Sky Bet is due to what is to come next. The Hammers have arguably the biggest fixture in the club’s modern history to look forward to against Sevilla on Thursday.
David Moyes just doesn’t have the squad to fight on both fronts so the likes of Michail Antonio, so important to the way West Ham play, will surely be given this weekend off to reset for Thursday night. The same could be said for Declan Rice and Kurt Zouma while Jarrod Bowen has already been ruled out.
Another reason to take the Hammers on is the opposition they are facing. The balance and shape of Aston Villa looks excellent once again under Steven Gerrard as they’ve put together three straight victories without conceding. The defensive process has backed up those clean sheets with an expected goals against figure of just 1.83 shipped in those fixtures against Brighton, Southampton and Leeds.
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David Moyes says his side will feel Jarrod Bowen’s absence following his injury, but insists his team are able to cope without him
You certainly have to earn your goals against this Villa team in this mood and I’ll be amazed if an undercooked West Ham can find a way through. Another win to nil for Gerrard’s boys it is. The 5/1 with Sky Bet looks a cracker.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1 | BETTING ANGLE: Aston Villa to win to nil (5/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Arsenal vs Leicester, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Leicester aren’t fooling me with their back-to-back clean sheets. They have shipped an expected goals figure equating to 2.7 goals in those two matches, pointing to a big overperformance and the eyes told you that against Leeds, who somehow failed to score in the 1-0 defeat last weekend.
I’d be stunned if they can keep this flowing Arsenal attack at bay. The Gunners already have more points at home than in all of last season and are unbeaten vs sides outside the top three, winning nine of those 11 Premier League games. Home win.
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How Odegaard is inspiring Arsenal and helping Saka
I’m fully expecting Bukayo Saka to make more noise in front of the Super Sunday cameras. His performance in the win at Watford only further enhanced my view that he’s the best young player in world football. Just watch him. When he’s tasked with making the right final pass, he makes it. His intelligence is off the scale and he has the ability to go with it.
He now has 13 goal involvements this season – the most for Arsenal and also the most by any Premier League player under 21 this season. I’m happy to back him here to score first at 9/2 with Sky Bet.
The regard in which I hold him has triggered a significant interest in his price to win PFA Young Player of the Year, too. Phil Foden currently leads that market at 8/11 with Sky Bet which completely underrates the chances of his England team-mate Saka, who can be backed at a colossal 6/1.
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SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1 | BETTING ANGLE: Bukayo Saka to score first (9/2 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Crystal Palace vs Manchester City, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Selhurst Park on a Monday night is never an ideal scenario for an away team – even one as special as Manchester City.
And then you throw into the mix that Palace are the last team to keep a Premier League clean sheet against City, who have scored in all 18 league games since that 2-0 win for Patrick Vieira’s team at the Etihad Stadium, then this could be a tricky evening for the league leaders.
However, City are unbeaten in their last 13 Premier League away games, winning 11 of those. They could equal a club Premier League record of 14 successive away games unbeaten here. I wouldn’t want to be lashing into the 2/7 for an away win but those looking to get City on side should maybe take a look at the 5/2 with Sky Bet on Pep Guardiola’s side winning by one goal.
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That winning goal just might come from a set-piece. Palace have conceded 10 of their 38 Premier League goals this season from corners. Plus, an opposition centre-back has managed a shot on goal against Palace in seven of their last eight fixtures with two goals conceded from corners in that period.
City play silky football but they are among the best at creating opportunities from set-pieces. Only Liverpool (20) have scored more from that method this season than City (19).
It all adds up to Aymeric Laporte being a great angle to attack across a variety of markets, the standout being him to have a header on target at 10/1 with Sky Bet. Only Shane Duffy averages more shots on goal when it comes to centre-backs to have played 500 minutes or more than Laporte (1.34) this season. Considering 10 of those efforts have been headers, his odds are too big to register a header on target.
Image: Aymeric Laporte celebrates scoring vs Leicester
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1 | BETTING ANGLE: Aymeric Laporte to have one or more headers on target (10/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Jones Knows Best Bets…
- P+L = +73.5
1pt on: Brighton +2 handicap, to have three or more offsides and 11 or more shots (4/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
1pt on: 20 or more Brentford booking points vs Burnley, Aston Villa double chance vs West Ham & Under 2.5 goals in Leeds vs Norwich (6/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
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