Premier League betting: Back the 6/1 weekend treble and Brighton offsides and shots vs Liverpool

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Our tipster Jones Knows, who is 73.5 points in profit for the season, has his two best bets to attack this weekend across an exciting batch of Premier League fixtures.

How did our bets do last time?

A losing weekend in terms of stakes – but one to look back on with heads held high.

Antonio Rudiger (1pt at 12/1 to score a header vs Burnley) was perhaps the worst bet of the three advised plays. He did manage three shots in the game, one on target, but Chelsea won only two corners in the entire match – this after me making such a big deal out of the lack of corners being won by Thomas Tuchel’s side only just a week ago. This game can bite you.

The Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal treble for all three to win to nil at 12/1 gave us a much better run with the two Saturday results leaving it up to Arsenal to deliver a clean sheet victory. They were victorious but their sheets were dirty, winning 3-2 against Watford. Cucho Hernandez had a nice day though.

Martin Odegaard was also on our radar for that game as we took the 20/1 on him to score, assist and have two shots at goal. His opener after seven minutes excited me greatly and despite him creating five further chances for his team-mates in another fantastic performance, the assist evaded him – as did the second shot somehow.

That boy loves a pass.

P+L = +73.5

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1pt on: Brighton +2 handicap, to have three or more offsides and 11 or more shots (4/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

One of my go-to strategies for punting paradise is to take a positive view on Brighton’s performance levels when they face an elite team. In their last 26 games against teams that finished in the top nine of the Premier League last season, Brighton have only lost four games by more than one goal. Included in that run is a 1-0 win at Anfield, a 1-1 draw with Jurgen Klopp’s men at the Amex last season and the 2-2 draw from earlier this campaign.

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Brighton’s shots lines are also worth following in such fixtures. In five fixtures against Liverpool, Brighton have posted shot totals that read: 11, 13, 12, 12 and nine. Graham Potter’s men play through the lines quickly when given the chance and despite Liverpool having a very solid defensive record, space is afforded to the opposition as exploited by West Ham last weekend. They had 13 at Anfield and I’ll be surprised if Brighton don’t get into double figures here.

And why not throw in some Brighton offsides for good measure? Liverpool’s offside trap is a thing of beauty and although the markets have aligned their algorithms to the amount of opposition offsides in recent weeks, the 8/15 on Brighton to be caught offside three or more times should land when looking at the averages. Jurgen Klopp’s men have caught teams offside 3.9 times per 90 minutes this season while Brighton were caught out five times in the reverse fixture.

My advice is to combine all three angles into a tasty same-game multi that involves Brighton to win, draw or lose by one, to have three or more offsides and 11 or more shots. The 4/1 with Sky Bet looks pretty tidy to me.

1pt on: 20 or more Brentford booking points vs Burnley, Aston Villa double chance vs West Ham & Under 2.5 goals in Leeds vs Norwich (6/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)

Not much else truly jumped out at me for a best bet across the weekend so I’ve combined my three strongest plays from the predictions column into a treble that should stand a decent chance of landing.

With the fussy Paul Tierney in charge, a bet in the cards market has taken my fancy in the Brentford vs Burnley game.

Thomas Frank’s side played with much more intensity and aggression in their 3-1 win at Norwich, making 18 fouls – a season high for them – and picked up five yellow cards. That desire to press higher, rather than sit off, has been a common theme in their fixtures against teams in the bottom eight. They have averaged 32.5 booking points in those 10 fixtures this season and nine of those fixtures have seen them pick up 20 or more booking points. You can get 6/5 with Sky Bet on that happening again in this fixture with a referee that loves a card.

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I’m convinced the market has the goal line completely wrong in Leeds vs Norwich. This is a Leeds team that has failed to score in their last four games, it’s their worst run without a goal since 2010. Confidence isn’t exactly raging through the Norwich squad either. They are the lowest scorers in English football with just 17 goals scored and have just found the net seven times on the road – the lowest tally of any side in the top four leagues.

With such a tense, cagey game in prospect where a ‘win-at-any-cost’ mantra will be employed by both teams, the goal line set by the markets does seem high with under 2.5 goals trading at odds against. Perhaps the algorithms have factored in too much of the Bielsa era. That 6/5 with Sky Bet looks best-bet-of-the-weekend material.

Finish the treble off with Aston Villa to avoid defeat at West Ham, who will have eyes on that massive midweek fixture with Sevilla and don’t have the squad depth to outplay such a well-oiled machine like Aston Villa are at the moment.

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