The run-in starts here. Tipster Jones Knows casts his eye over a thrilling set of Premier League fixtures and hunts out the value in the betting markets.
- Stream the Premier League with NOW | Get Sky Sports
Arsenal vs Leeds, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Arsenal are giving off signs that their defence is becoming a little exposed – which can be seen through their defensive metrics before and after the World Cup break. Their expected goals against figure has risen from 0.85 per-90 to 1.1 per-90 while their shots on target faced numbers have also increased from 2.6 per-90 to 3.85 per-90. Teams are finding it easier to create quality chances against the Gunners, who have only kept six clean sheets in their last 18 fixtures across all competitions.
In the last Super 6 round, two six goal thrillers thwarted jackpot chances. Only 69 Super 6 players predicted Southampton 3-3 Tottenham, while just one more correctly predicted Wolves 2-4 Leeds. Another £250,000 jackpot is on the line come Saturday afternoon.
It may not matter in terms of the title race as their attack is capable of scoring two or more goals every game, but this slight downturn in defensive numbers is potentially an area to exploit when it comes to opposition players and their shots and goal prices, especially with William Saliba missing through injury.
Image: Another Saturday, another chance to win £250,000 with Super 6. Play for free, entries by 3pm
Jack Harrison has scored in his last two Premier League games for Leeds – as many as he had in his previous 29 appearances – but the markets haven’t quite caught up with his influence under the new boss Javi Gracia.
Trending
- Klopp: Lucky it was only four | ‘I have nothing good to say’
- FREE STREAM: Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund Tactical Cam
- Transfer Centre LIVE! Klopp says Liverpool will spend in summer
- Hamilton and Russell hunting Melbourne win after ‘dream’ Saturday
- Verstappen beats Russell, Hamilton to Australian GP pole
- Premier League table as it stands
- Alonso, Sainz accuse Mercedes of exaggerating struggles
- Djokovic to return to world No 1 as Alcaraz loses in Miami semis
- ‘One of the best champions we’ll ever see’: Boxing great Buchanan dies
- PL Predictions: Aston Villa to turn up heat on Potter
- Video
- Latest News
Harrison has played all but nine minutes of the four games since Gracia took charge, posting a healthy average of 2.75 touches in the box per-90 and registering six shots. My maths make him a lot shorter than 5/2 with Sky Bet to have a shot on target at The Emirates and his 25/1 first goalscorer price with Sky Bet also makes appeal.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Handball or not? A look back at some of the most controversial handball decisions involving VAR in the Premier League this season
Bournemouth vs Fulham, Saturday 3pm
Bournemouth are all the rage in the markets at 6/4 with Sky Bet to make a mockery of league positions and beat ninth-placed Fulham, who have taken 15 more points than the Cherries this season. Much of that market support is based on Willian and Aleksandar Mitrovic serving suspensions for their respective red cards at Manchester United but I wouldn’t be too down on Fulham’s chances for this one.
Also See:
Importantly, Joao Palhinha is back, a player who to my eye is fast becoming the best midfielder in the Premier League outside the top-seven teams.
As always, Fulham will be tough to beat with him patrolling things as showcased by their record of losing just twice this season from 19 fixtures against teams outside the top five in the Premier League. The west Londoners are Evens with Sky Bet in the ‘draw no bet’ market meaning stakes are refunded if the match ends as a draw.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Brighton vs Brentford, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Brighton and Brentford might be locked together on 42 points with eyes on a European adventure but only one of those teams are serious players according to the markets. Brighton are 4/6 with Sky Bet for victory as the money continues to pile on them every single week, driving their price to a figure we usually see associated with a top-four chasing side. And in truth, that’s exactly what they are with odds of just 4/1 available on them finishing in the Champions League spots and 4/6 on them for a top-six finish. This club is going places, fast.
With no betting opportunities in the outright prices in what should be a routine home win, heading to the player shots market could prove to be the answer. Brighton rarely offer up too many moments of attacking promise to the opposition at home but it’s hard to get away from Brentford left-back Rico Henry’s prices.
In his last eight starts, Henry has become a big outlet for the Bees with an average of 1.5 touches in the opposition box per-90 to go along with a 1.13 shots per-90 average that has equated to an expected goals tally of 0.89. He is 7/4 with Sky Bet to register just one shot at The Amex – he’s had five in his last two starts – and a player with that kind of expected goals return shouldn’t be 66/1 to score first.
- Over 330,000 entrants are backing a 2-1 win for Brighton, as two of the surprise packages of the season face off at the Amex. Brighton could move to fifth if they win their games in hand, and the majority are expecting three points for Roberto De Zerbi’s side on Saturday.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Crystal Palace vs Leicester, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Crystal Palace have spent the last 88 days in 12th place – and if they want to stay there, they’ve appointed the perfect man. Roy Hodgson led Palace to 11th, 12th, 14th, and 14th place finishes during his first spell in charge.
Isn’t football just riveting sometimes?
Hodgson will no doubt be the safe pair of hands Steve Parish was looking for and this team are more than capable of winning games as eight of their 10 remaining games are against bottom-half teams – plus, they play five of the current bottom six at home during the run-in. It’s the easiest run-in of any team in the relegation picture.
I wouldn’t be banging down the door to take the 6/4 with Sky Bet for a home win here, though. Leicester can turn it on and off like a tap and have the individuals to take a game away from a team in a short spell in a match. Hodgson also has never beaten a Brendan Rodgers-managed team in seven attempts. A dour draw it is then, with Palace maintaining their impressive stranglehold on 12th.
Image: Super 6 are proud to be teaming up with Prostate FC, taking on the most common cancer in men, Prostate Cancer
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Nottingham Forest vs Wolves, Saturday 3pm
“Wolves wasn’t the club for me. I said a nice farewell and they were giving me stick. It’s only right to give it back. You want to prove a point.”
Morgan Gibbs-White is a serious talent. And also a serious talker – as the quotes above showcase. Since leaving Wolves, the club he had called home since the age of eight, he has been happy to speak openly and let his emotions run wild on the pitch when it comes to his former club.
Both Wolves and Forest were charged by the FA for a melee which broke out at the end of their Carabao Cup tie, with Wolves boss Julen Lopetegui criticised after confronting Gibbs-White, who celebrated in front of the Wolves fans with his fingers in his ears.
Image: Morgan Gibbs-White faces old club Wolves on Saturday – he is 33/1 to score and be carded
When you throw in a huge amount of relegation tension to the melting pot, this game has all the ingredients to spill over at a ground that has seen an average of 4.5 cards shown per-90 this season with 60 or more booking points landing in five of those 11 matches. The 11/10 with Sky Bet for 50 or more booking points should go close.
But I’m getting greedy and will be focusing on Gibbs-White to play a huge role in sparking the game into life. He averages two shots per-90 in home matches this season, scoring twice to a backdrop of 3.12 worth of expected goals showcasing an underperformance according to quality of chance created.
Also, with Brennan Johnson struggling for fitness, Gibbs-White will surely be grabbing the ball at any penalty-taking opportunities. The 14/1 with Sky Bet for him to score first looks very tasty but I’ll be playing the 33/1 on him scoring and receiving a card as there has to be a chance of an over-the-top celebration that may involve a shirt removal or a run towards the away end.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Morgan Gibbs-White to score & to be carded (33/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Chelsea vs Aston Villa, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
- Get Sky Sports | Download the Sky Sports App
- Get NOW to stream big moments
Chelsea are ripe to be taken on here at 4/6 with Sky Bet. Only Arsenal (38), Man City (29) and Man Utd (27) have won more points than Aston Villa since Unai Emery was appointed with his pragmatic yet dangerous countering style certainly suiting them away from home where they have only lost one of their six games under his stewardship – and that was at Manchester City.
Graham Potter has certainly found a more secure formula in recent weeks but their remains a lack of ruthlessness in both boxes that continues to make Chelsea vulnerable.
Whenever Villa are fancied to grab a result on the road, backing Emiliano Martinez to be carded is certainly a savvy way of nicking a fantastic price. He is 9/1 for a card at Stamford Bridge and has been booked five times in the Premier League this season for timewasting antics – no goalkeeper has been sanctioned more times for that offence this season.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
West Ham vs Southampton, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
- Get Sky Sports | Download the Sky Sports App
- Get NOW to stream big moments
When assessing all the teams in the relegation shake-up, West Ham may just have the best manager for negotiating a way to survival. David Moyes has already shown in two huge home six-pointer matches – vs Everton and Nottingham Forest – that he has the experience and knowhow to get results when the pressure cooker is at its hottest. It counts for a lot when the margins are so fine. And I see no reason to oppose the Hammers at odds-on here.
Are they a bet? No.
The value lies in the goalscorer markets where I’m expecting West Ham to create opportunities from set-pieces. West Ham have only scored four goals from such situations this season but their expected goals from set-pieces is double that figure – it’s only a matter of time before they find a way through as the basis of a successful Moyes team revolves around their supremacy at scoring from corners and free-kicks. There should be plenty of corners coming their way too considering they’ve won 24 in their last two home games.
Southampton are notoriously very unorganised defending set-pieces, conceding 11 goals via that avenue this season – only Bournemouth have conceded more. And the appointment of Ruben Selles hasn’t helped matters in that regard either, as since he took the job Saints have conceded twice from corners to a backdrop of 2.56 worth of expected goals – the worst record of any team in that period. With that in mind, Tomas Soucek (16/1 with Sky Bet) and Nayef Aguerd (28/1 with Sky Bet) are both runners in the first goalscorer market.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Newcastle vs Manchester United, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
- Get Sky Sports | Download the Sky Sports App
- Get NOW to stream big moments
The goal expectancy for this encounter looks too high, meaning the play has to be oppose goals with under 1.5 at 5/2 with Sky Bet certainly worth consideration.
We’re amid a period during the season where it pays to be an under goals backer as games tend to be tighter with teams playing with a lack of freedom with so much on the line. This season for instance has seen a downtrend in terms of goals per game since the World Cup. Pre-Qatar there were 2.87 goals per game but in January to March there has been a big drop to 2.49 goals per game across all matches in the Premier League.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Ahead of the clash between Newcastle and Manchester United live on Sky Sports, a look back at some of the best Premier League goals between the sides, featuring strikes from Wayne Rooney, Alan Shearer, Eric Cantona and more!
In 10 games against the traditional ‘big six’ and Brighton this season, Newcastle’s games have averaged just 1.9 total goals per-90 with seven of those falling under the 2.5 goals line and three of those matches ending 0-0. With Manchester United missing key man Casemiro, to get out of St James’ Park with a point will surely be seen as a great result by Erik ten Hag, so a cautious approach from Manchester United is predicted. Newcastle can edge a low scoring clash.
- Could it be a repeat of the Carabao Cup final? Only 5.6 per cent of entrants are backing a 2-0 win for Erik Ten Hag’s Man Utd at St James’ Park, although a win for Eddie Howe’s Newcastle would take them above their opponents on goal difference.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0
Everton vs Tottenham, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
- Get Sky Sports | Download the Sky Sports App
- Get NOW to stream big moments
Everton at 12/5 with Sky Bet playing at Goodison Park on a Monday night under the lights? Yes please.
There is a unique atmosphere for a night game at the great old ground that certainly is a factor to consider when weighing up probabilities for a match outcome. In the last 13 games played on a Monday night at Goodison Park, Everton are unbeaten in 12 of those – the only defeat coming in a 1-0 reverse to Liverpool when Sadio Mane nicked the points in the last minute. Of those 13 results, Everton won eight of those matches, including when underdogs against Manchester United in 2012 and Arsenal in 2021.
The Goodison Park factor is a strong enough case anyway but when you throw in the current crisis at Tottenham, it really does make the pro-Everton view a very strong one to consider at the prices. The ‘draw no bet’ selection at 11/8 with Sky Bet, meaning stakes are refunded if the game is a draw looks a cracking way to oppose Spurs and get Sean Dyche’s improving side in the book.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0
Win £250,000 with Super 6!
Another Saturday, another chance to win £250,000 with Super 6. Play for free, entries by 3pm.
Sourse: skysports.com
