It was very sporting of the Americans to put on a mile-and-a-half race on the grass when they founded the Breeders’ Cup meeting back in 1984 and the Europeans have responded to this transatlantic show of generosity by dominating the Breeders’ Cup Turf ever since.
Alain de Royer-Dupre’s Lashkari won the inaugural running and since then horses stabled in Europe have won a further 22 editions.
Dermot Weld’s Tarnawa added her name to the roll of honour with her spectacular stretch surge at Keeneland 12 months ago and she lines up as the heavy favourite to land the double.
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Watch every race of the Breeders' Cup from Del Mar live on Sky Sports Racing, November 5-6
1 – Rockemperor (Jockey: Javier Castellano; Trainer: Chad Brown)
Rockemperor is coming to the boil nicely after victory in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic at Belmont last month. The stronger gallop that day certainly seemed to suit him more than the tactically run Sword Dancer at Saratoga the time before. Does he have the early speed to take full advantage of the rail post position, though?
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2 – Channel Maker (J Velazquez; R Mandella)
He finished third in the race last year but got a rather easy lead, something that is not assured here by any means with the likes of Acclimate in the field.
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His usual frontrunning style has not been as effective in races like the Sword Dancer and the Joe Hirsch Classic of late and he has plenty of speed under him on Saturday. A major shock if he is good enough to win.
3 – Bolshoi Ballet (R Moore; A O’Brien)
Looked the top European middle-distance three-year-old when he thrashed his rivals in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial at Leopardstown in May, however he flopped when sent off the 11/8 favourite in the Derby at Epsom.
Although his transatlantic revitalisation spawned a victory in the Belmont Derby Invitational, the level of his subsequent form has been a touch disappointing. One of three Aidan O’Brien runners in the race.
Image: Aidan O'Brien's Bolshoi Ballet got into the race as first reserve
4 – Astronaut (V Espinoza; J Shirreffs)
Probably had the race run to suit when winning the Grade Two Del Mar Handicap over 11 furlongs last time out. Prior to that he had been second in a Grade Three over one-mile-and-six-furlongs at Saratoga. He will probably get the race run to suit and he definitely stays but will he be good enough in this company?
5 – Tribhuvan (J Ortiz; C Brown)
An important runner as he will be one of a few who will almost certainly keep things honest from a pace perspective. He is a Grade One winner, having scored at that level at Monmouth two starts ago but was reeled in by Domestic Spending in the Manhattan Stakes.
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Champion Irish flat jockey Colin Keane says he is happy to give Tarnawa time to come late from a wide draw as she bids to defend her Breeders’ Cup crown.
6 – Acclimate (R Gonzalez; P D’Amato)
A confirmed front-runner who finished fourth in the Hollywood Turf Cup at this track and distance almost 12 months ago.
He would be a dangerous outsider if not roughed-up on the sharp end, but it looks as though he may have plenty of pace competition from the likes of Tribhuvan and Broome. I therefore suspect he will find a few too good.
7 – Walton Street (J Doyle; C Appleby)
A fascinating contender who will run a big race. His Torquator Tasso form from Germany has aged like a fine wine and he obliterated the field up at Woodbine in the Canadian International.
This is obviously a deeper race, but there are no trip concerns and from gate seven I expect him to take a pretty prominent position not too far off the rail.
William Buick’s decision to ride Yibir gives you an idea of the Godolphin pecking order, but James Doyle is a more than able deputy and I am very keen on his chances.
Image: Walton Street wins at Newmarket last year under James Doyle
8 – Broome (F Dettori; A O’Brien)
Another likely front-runner with some solid European group race form from earlier in the season. Most of his best efforts have been with a bit of give in the ground, though, and the firm surface at the time of writing looks unlikely to be ideal.
His run in the Arc was also rather underwhelming to say the least. Dettori an interesting booking, but not for me.
9 – Sisfahan (C Demuro; H Grewe)
Torquator Tasso’s victory at ParisLongchamp got everyone belatedly thumbing through their German formbooks and there are one or two efforts from this fellow that tie in nicely with the Arc winner.
As we saw in Paris, they are formlines that need to be taken seriously, but Sisfahan often gets back in the run and I’m not certain that run style, allied to the fast ground, will be an ideal mix.
10 – Yibir (W Buick; C Appleby)
Pushed and cajoled along early, Charlie Appleby’s three-year-old never looked like winning the Jockey Club Derby until he did with a devastating surge to the line under a persistent Jamie Spencer at Belmont. In fairness, it wasn’t vastly different to his performance at York when he came from a long way back to win the Great Voltigeur.
He is clearly a high quality performer, but I think the Knavesmire and “Big Sandy” suited him much better than the tight turns will at Del Mar and I am not desperately enthusiastic about his chance at the prices.
Image: Yibir and James Doyle on their way to winning the Bahrain Trophy Stakes at Newmarket
11 – Gufo (J Rosario; C Clement)
A stalwart of middle-distance turf races in America, he was triumphant in a somewhat fiddly Sword Dancer Stakes at Saratoga. He’ll run a good race, but others would have to underperform for him to win.
12 – Teona (D Egan; R Varian)
A filly that has made lovely progress this season from the Listed August Stakes at Windsor straight to the Group One Prix Vermeille. Granted, that was a somewhat unsatisfactory race but it still took a good performance to win it. Her tendency to race freely might not be ideal, as indeed is the wide draw.
13 – Tarnawa (C Keane; D Weld)
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Weld says it will be very tough for Tarnawa to defend her Breeders’ Cup crown from an unfavourable draw in stall 13.
Won this race last year in the manner of a very good horse. Towards the rear in a race that was run at a very pedestrian gallop, she did incredibly well to pass the vast majority of her quickening rivals in the two-furlong run to the line.
Dermot Weld has been keen to preserve her for an autumn campaign and her efforts in the Irish Champion Stakes and the Prix De l’Arc de Triomphe, while not resulting in victory, are still the best pieces of form on show here.
There have been a few rumblings from the stable about the potential state of the ground at Del Mar, but she is versatile enough to cope with it and a wide barrier doesn’t concern me much if she can slot in and get some cover. The one they all have to beat.
14 – Japan (R Moore; A O’Brien)
Still occasionally scales the kind of heights he hit in the earlier parts of his career but, after a decent effort in the Sword Dancer at Saratoga, was very disappointing subsequently at Belmont. It would not be a huge surprise to see him revitalised at the weekend, but it is hard to be confident about his chances.
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Verdict
The late defections of Domestic Spending and United – both of whom entered the race in great form and were Del Mar specialists – has served to weaken the race and smooth the path for TARNAWA to land her second successive renewal of this race.
Granted, her draw is bad and some of the Weld stable vibes about the ground have not been desperately encouraging, but her win here 12 months ago was spectacularly good and her form from Leopardstown and ParisLongchamp is very strong. She’ll get out, slot in and pounce late.
WALTON STREET would not be a particularly sexy winner, but he ran a big number in Toronto and if he can get to a prominent position and attack off the home bend he will be tough to reel in.
Watch the Breeders’ Cup Turf on Saturday, November 6 live on Sky Sports Racing at 11.40pm.
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