In the race to replace speaker of the house Paul Ryan started.
Ryan, who announced Wednesday that he will not run for re-election in November of this year, said it plans to maintain its leadership, until he retires in January, but top Republicans are already trying to position themselves as his heir.
There are two leaders in this race for the post of speaker: majority leader Kevin McCarthy, a California Republican who has cultivated close relations with President Donald trump and ambitions for work in the past; and majority whip Steve Scalise, a conservative Republican from Louisiana, who received national attention after he was shot in the congressional baseball practice in the summer of last year and is the only one in the southern Congress members of management.
Also might be throwing his hat into the ring a house of freedom of Assembly, co-founder Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Oh), a controversial leader of the conservatives. Jordan told some Republican colleagues he is “strongly considering” running for speaker, the Washington post Mike DeBonis reported on Friday morning. Jordan will have little chance to win if it didn’t work, but that would complicate things for Scalise and McCarthy.
Ryan supported McCarthy, he said in an interview that will air this weekend on meet the press host Chuck Todd. There used to be signs Ryan wanted his majority leader, as his successor; on Thursday he said he was “encouraged” that Scalise said McCarthy should take on. Scalise has said publicly that he will not run against McCarthy, but as it was asking for.
But the preferences Ryan can seal the deal.
Whoever wins the post of speaker by a simple majority of the votes of the entire house — 218 votes. Assuming that the Democrats will unite against anyone the Republicans nominate any of the Republican faction, with about two dozen votes can stop a possible candidate in his or her tracks — and of Assembly, freedom and 40 members.
“If we control enough votes to veto who the next speaker will be, do you think it will be someone who deals less with the forum for freedom?” Chair mark meadows (R-NC) asked a rhetorical question, when the opportunity presented itself more moderate Republican leader.
But at the heart of this struggle is the tacit understanding, than in November, Republicans can’t elect a speaker at all. If the Republicans lose the majority, they will only have to choose the leader of the minority — a very different job that requires a very different skill set and needs only majority support in the framework of the conference.
The race is on.
The two leading candidates are preparing for a seven-month campaign for the position of speaker
If Ryan decides to leave the post of speaker between now and November, Republicans prepare for the seven months of fighting for the first place of leadership.
It’s too early to start campaigning openly; as McCarthy and Scalise who the leadership of Ryan, say they are simply aimed at preserving the Republican majority in the House of representatives in 2019. But behind the scenes the staff will tell you the two legislators are already trying to build coalitions. Members of Republicans say they are already “eyeing” McCarthy and Scalise as possible replacements for Ryan, according to politico.
McCarthy, a California Republican who was majority leader in the House of representatives in 2014, with Ryan in the leadership and close ally of President Donald trump. Unlike Ryan McCarthy has never been known as the man who will lead the political debate, but he is known as a popular and skillful political tactician — and certainly had ambitions for the post of speaker.
He died in his campaign to succeed John Boehner, it was torn apart by rumors of an extramarital affair and the revolt of the members of the house of Assembly, the freedom, who McCarthy said will be too close in style to Boehner.
Scalise, meanwhile, has always been considered the more conservative ideology of the policy compared to McCarthy. He’s from the South, some conservative members of the conference for all the pros and cons that brings. And after shooting last summer that left Scalise in critical condition for several months, his triumphant recovery presented the return of history the Republicans can get behind, when you take their next leader.
And, of course, there’s always a chance for a dark horse candidate who can work through the ranks. Rumor has it that Rep. Mark Walker (R-NC), which is much more conservative primary meeting of the Republican study Committee, is thinking about throwing his name in the ring. He denied that he is actively looking for work, but did not rule out in an interview with VOX.
Meadows also floated Utah Rep. Rob Bishop, a rank-and-file Republican who has said he plans to leave Congress after one more term. Meadows himself has said that he has no claim to the post of speaker, but it’s not lost on the fact that his group would like to see him throw his hat in the ring.
Now, it seems as though many rally around McCarthy. But he has a history with some of the more conservative Republicans in conference to fear, to let someone from the leadership of Ryan in the office of the speaker.
Mark meadows factor hangs over this race
The speaker race ultimately comes down to simple math.
There are currently 237 Republicans. Without any major changes in the next seven months, Republicans need between 215 and 218 votes to confirm speaker. In other words, meadows — who leads a cohort of approximately 40 men that make the house the most conservative faction and the most ardent supporters of the trump — has great power.
The liberty Caucus has enough votes to stop any President in its path, and meadows, which, as you know, almost daily, personal conversations with trump, has a direct line with the President if things don’t go your way.
These levers he’s not afraid to use it.
Only three years ago, meadows filed a petition to remove Boehner from his seat as speaker, catalyst to retire Boehner. In 2015 the freedom Caucus refused to support McCarthy in his bid for the post of speaker, saying that he was too close to the leadership team Boehner. The rebellion ultimately gave rise to the leadership of Ryan.
In colic with McCarthy not necessarily personal. Collection of Freedom is simply anti-status quo. They are in the business of moving policy far to the right, even if it tanks everything. And McCarthy, who was majority leader at the time, was just considered as a next in line system to create a fundamentally Caucus, freedom denied.
But much has changed in 2015. Meadows, told reporters that McCarthy “was stretching, trying to keep its promises on the number of members a member of the house of representatives of freedom, which will well serve him, regardless of race, should he throw his hat in the ring”.
And it’s not lost on anyone that a close relationship with McCarthy trump plays a role. The collection of freedom does not break often with aces, and while the President has to weigh in, McCarthy has long been seen as the closest ally of the leadership of the President.
The faction of freedom not prepared to answer, some of them still holding fears that McCarthy is too close to the establishment.
“I don’t care no one in the current leadership team,” said Rep. Paul Gosar (R-AZ), which is the Caucus of freedom.
This may not be a race for speaker at all
At the heart of this inner-party struggle is an understanding among Republicans that come with January 2019, may not be a Republican speaker of the house altogether.
“We must ensure that we maintain our majority and this should be the focus of our attention until November, and let’s not get ahead of ourselves,” Rep. Chris Collins (Republican, new York) said.
The timing of retirement, Ryan was not accidental. Trump remains extremely unpopular, and special elections throughout the country indicate democratic voters are extremely eager to kick the Republicans out of office — the reality of Ryan’s pension reflects. The Democrats need to win 24 seats in 2018 to take control of the house, which looks more and more possible.
The minority leader and speaker are two completely different jobs. Minority leaders have less political impact. As we saw with the leader of the democratic minority Nancy Pelosi, the task of keeping the members in line for a clear party message. It is more offensive work.
For the post of speaker, however, must protect the legislative agenda of his party. There is a valid argument that candidate, Scalise, McCarthy, or anyone else — will better serve each role.
Sourse: vox.com
