Fresh from tipping Harry Maguire to score a header at 20/1, Jones Knows is back with an array of insight, predictions and best bets for a busy weekend.
Winners for Jones Knows in last seven days…
- Harry Maguire to score a header 20/1
- Harry Maguire shot on target & Paul Pogba two shots 11/2
- Joel Matip to score 10/1
- BTTS in Man City vs Tottenham 11/10
- Newcastle to win or draw vs West Ham 6/5
- Under 40 booking points in Burnley vs Spurs 6/5
Leeds vs Tottenham, Saturday 12.30pm
Taking advantage of the lack of organisation in the Leeds ranks from set-pieces seems to be a sensible strategy considering we’ve pinpointed big-priced winners like Harry Maguire, Joel Matip – even if he netted driving from deep – and Virgil van Dijk to score over the past week.
Only Leicester have conceded more goals from corners than Leeds since they were promoted (20).
Oddly, Spurs have only scored twice from corners this season – only Manchester United have netted fewer times.
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However, they are a forceful team and do target set-piece situations under Antonio Conte so backing them to profit from this avenue is the way to go. The tricky part is nailing the colours to a particular player.
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I’m siding with Ben Davies based on his threat from open play too as he does like to join in on overloads down the left. He hasn’t scored in over five years in the Premier League but has been threatening to do so this season, racking up an expected goals total of 1.24, including an effort that was blocked away by Nick Pope in the defeat to Burnley. He is 66/1 to score first and 22/1 anytime in a game that involves the two most inconsistent teams in the Premier League. A predictors nightmare in that regard.
Back the 12/1 Jones Knows acca!
Ben Mee to have one or more shots, Joe Willock to have one or more shots on target, Wolves to win or draw vs West Ham & Liverpool to have more corners than Chelsea!
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2 | BETTING ANGLE: Ben Davies to score anytime (22/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Brentford vs Newcastle, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
If you offered both teams the draw now? They’d shake hands and say move on.
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Newcastle impressed again with their defensive structure at West Ham and now look a tough team to put away.
Meanwhile, Brentford may have lost eight of their last 10 Premier League games but performance levels remain consistently better than the results they are getting, especially at home. Apart from against Manchester City, on all occasions this season when they have not won the match at home, Thomas Frank’s side have won the expected-goals battle – even in the 3-3 draw with Liverpool and the 1-0 defeat to Chelsea.
It is a process which is actually the sixth-best home record in the Premier League when it comes to expected goals. A draw it is for this one.
- LAST WEEK’S SUPER 6: Crystal Palace were the ‘Super 6 Coupon Buster’ on Wednesday, with an incredibly low amount of Super 6 players correctly predicting this result, a mere 94 on the night (0.01%).
Having given Joe Willock man of the match during my reporting duties on Newcastle’s game with West Ham last weekend, he’s very much got my attention for this game. Eddie Howe has found the perfect role for Willock in this system where he can utilise his clever runs into dangerous areas. It’s taking him into great positions which has rocketed his shots per game average. In his last four, he has had 14 shots at goal with three of those on target. Brentford have faced the fourth most shots on target of any team this season so the 11/10 with Sky Bet for Willock to have one or more shots to hit the target is a cracker.
Image: Joe Willock celebrates his equaliser for Newcastle
Respect also needs to be given to his 5/1 odds in the anytime scorer market too. His expected goals data from the past four matches has him as the second most dangerous Newcastle attacker and remember, this is a player that scored in seven consecutive matches last season. His goal at West Ham could send him on another streak.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | BETTING ANGLE: Joe Willock to have one or more shots on target (11/10 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Joe Willock to score anytime (5/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Brighton vs Aston Villa, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
I’m looking to oppose Brighton and goals in an encounter that involves two teams that are meandering in mid-table that also have problems in attack.
Graham Potter’s men have only landed the odds for their backers in three of their last 19 matches, so the 23/20 with Sky Bet on a home win is easily swerved, especially with Aston Villa arriving on the back of an awful defensive performance in the defeat to Watford. Steven Gerrard had them supremely organised in the first few weeks of the job and he’ll have them set up and motivated to restrict the hosts here. That should make for a cagey, no-thrills game involving two attacks that are struggling for confidence and rhythm in their final third play.
The under 2.5 goals line has a price of 4/5 with Sky Bet which looks appealing on the chances of both teams scoring one goal or fewer each.
In their last 23 games, Brighton have scored one or less in 78 per cent of their matches, while Villa are hitting that ratio in 57 per cent of their games since Steven Gerrard joined. With both teams without a goal in their last two matches, the chances of a goal-heavy match look slim so the 55 per cent chance of the under 2.5 goal line should be a little higher.
If attacking odds-on shots isn’t your thing then perhaps backing the draw and under 2.5 goals – siding with 0-0 or 1-1 – is the way to play this at 100/30 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | BETTING ANGLE: Back the draw and under 2.5 goals (100/30 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Crystal Palace vs Burnley, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
If Burnley can get enough space to push Crystal Palace back towards their own goal then there is a strong possibility of Sean Dyche’s men causing plenty of carnage in their box. I’m happy to back Burnley to get a result.
Palace conceded their 10th goal of the season from a corner in the win over Watford and as they reminded us in midweek, Burnley are so astute at making life dangerous for the opposition from set-pieces. And, like against Spurs, Ben Mee is the man I want to invest in.
- Only 12% of Super 6 players are expecting Burnley to come away from London with three points, despite winning their last two Premier League matches. Just under 7,000 entrants have opted with a 2-1 scoreline in Burnley’s favour.
The Burnley defender showed in the previous meeting this season his love for playing Palace, scoring his third goal against the Eagles. He had two shots in that match, too. In total he has had 0.95 shots per game this season – only Aymeric Laporte, Joel Matip and Antonio Rudiger average a higher ratio in terms of centre-backs getting shots away. If he hits that mark in this game then the 4/5 with Sky Bet for him to have one or more shots really should land quite comfortably.
I’ll also have a bit of the 22/1 on him to score first.
Image: Ben Mee heads Burnley in front against Spurs
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | BETTING ANGLE: Ben Mee to have one or more shots (4/5 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Manchester United vs Watford, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Roy Hodgson’s style of play will win no awards in terms of entertainment factor, but he’s already shown that it will yield some results along the way. His recent results against Manchester United certainly make the argument for Watford getting something this weekend quite appealing, especially with United still struggling to find cohesion and rhythm in their play.
Hodgson is unbeaten in his last three visits to Old Trafford, winning twice with Crystal Palace as his defensive block has managed to stifle the United front line. A 4-1 defeat in midweek certainly doesn’t read well on paper but Palace were quite clinical with the limited chances they were offered up in the first half which changed the complexion of the game.
- Most popular Super 6 selection of the round is…. Manchester United 2-0 Watford (37%). Over 350,000 players are backing this scoreline in Saturday’s round, as Watford remain four points adrift from safety, while Man Utd look to stretch their unbeaten run to eight.
Having a swing at the 17/2 for an away win did tempt me but United have only lost one of their last 19 games (not including penalty shootouts) in all competitions since sacking Ole Gunnar Solskjaer. It’s not the United of old, but they get results. Let’s play the draw at 17/4 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | BETTING ANGLE: Back the draw (17/4 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Everton vs Manchester City, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports
I’m taking a view that Everton are an appealing betting proposition to me in their home games under Frank Lampard – not this one though.
They are meeting Manchester City at the worst possible time. Tottenham may have just poked the bear.
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Under Pep Guardiola, City are a very dangerous proposition the game immediately after a defeat. In their last 18 games after a defeat in any competition, they are unbeaten, winning 17 of those matches to an aggregate score of 63-8.
Frank Lampard will be trying to use the Goodison Park crowd to press high and force City back, which in other words, they’ll play straight into City’s hands. It should mean an entertaining game is on the cards but the Everton goal is going to get a relentless workout.
I can’t see much scope for a betting angle in the match result markets so I’ve headed to the player shots market.
Image: Aymeric Laporte celebrates his equaliser
Aymeric Laporte looks a fine bet to have a headed shot on target at 11/2 with Sky Bet. Manchester City are averaging over five shots at goal per 90 minutes from set-piece situations – only Liverpool average more. Laporte is a huge threat from those. Only Shane Duffy averages more shots on goal when it comes to centre-backs to have played 500 minutes or more than Laporte (1.34) this season. Considering 10 of those efforts have been headers, against such a disorganised team defensively like Everton, his odds are too big to register a header on target.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-3 | BETTING ANGLE: Aymeric Laporte to have a headed shot on target (11/2 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
West Ham vs Wolves, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
My view that West Ham are a team to oppose in the coming weeks was only strengthened by their lacklustre attacking showing in the 1-1 draw with Newcastle.
Yet again, I thought the Hammers lacked imagination and were second best for large periods in that draw. A similar story could be said in their previous four fixtures against Watford, Leicester, Kidderminster and Manchester United. In the last five games, the Hammers have scored seven goals but their attacking process is on the wane, registering just a total of 13 shots on target. That’s an average of just 2.6 per 90 minutes. Just for context, Liverpool had 15 shots on target against Leeds on Wednesday.
The last team West Ham need right now is Wolves, who have conceded just 20 goals in 25 Premier League games this season – only Chelsea (18) and Man City (17) have shipped fewer. Bruno Lage’s team also were comfortable 2-0 winners when the teams met in the corresponding fixture earlier this season. Despite all this, West Ham are favourites. That makes little sense to me and Wolves should be backed with confidence with the 5/1 on them to win to nil with Sky Bet standing out.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2 | BETTING ANGLE: Wolves to win to nil (5/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Carabao Cup final: Chelsea vs Liverpool, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Chelsea
Liverpool
Sunday 27th February 3:30pm Kick off 4:30pm
I told myself that going cold turkey on backing corner markets was the best step for me. But I’ve been drawn back here by Liverpool’s price to win more corners than Chelsea at 5/6 with Sky Bet.
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Since Chelsea have had to change playing without the natural width of their wing-backs, their average corner count has dropped from 6.8 per 90 minutes with Reece James to 5.4 without him. That may not sound an alarming drop but Chelsea are a much narrower team in this back-four system that doesn’t use their full-backs as attacking weapons. And with Hakim Ziyech liking to cut in from the right, the chances of Chelsea winning corners down the channels have dried up.
They lost the corner count 6-4 at home to Lille and drew it 4-4 vs Crystal Palace. Now they face a genuine world-class team that just might run amok down the channels.
Liverpool have won the corner race in 29 of their 33 games across the Premier League and Champions League this season (87 per cent strike-rate), including in both fixtures against Chelsea. Imagine my surprise then when odds of 5/6 with Sky Bet popped up, implying that Liverpool stand a 54.55 per cent chance of winning the corner race. With the likely game-state of Chelsea happy to soak up pressure added to the corner data, I’d have that nearer 75 per cent. Take advantage of that edge in a game that looks hard to call in terms of the match result.
Five of the last 14 League Cup finals have gone to extra-time and this one may go that way too. Just back the corners.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | BETTING ANGLE: Back Liverpool to win more corners (4/5 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Jones Knows best bets…
1pt on Ben Mee to have one or more shots, Joe Willock to have one or more shots on target, Wolves to win or draw vs West Ham & Liverpool to have more corners than Chelsea (12/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
1pt on Joe Willock to score anytime for Newcastle vs Brentford (9/2 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
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