The April edition of currency forecasts assumes that the euro will not be significantly cheaper than it is now in the foreseeable future. Market analysts have changed their views on the dollar, which is expected to permanently cost less than 4 zlotys.
The past two years have witnessed the great triumph of the Polish złoty. Few people still remember that in February 2023 we paid almost PLN 4.80 for the euro. Since then, the euro-zloty pair has been on a downward trend that will last until February 2025. During this time, the euro exchange rate fell from the aforementioned PLN 4.80 to less than PLN 4.12 recorded two months ago.
Thanks to this, the nominal euro rate was the lowest since January 2018. In real terms, i.e. after taking into account the cumulative differences in inflation between Poland and the eurozone, the złoty became the strongest since 2008. Then came the tariff wars of US President Donald Trump and the Polish currency was hit by the ricochet of great geopolitics. The euro rate jumped from PLN 4.15 to over PLN 4.30 in a few days. Since then, it has been moving mainly sideways on the chart, fluctuating in the range of PLN 4.20-4.30, and in the second half of April it was an even narrower range (PLN 4.25-4.30).
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Is this the end of the appreciation of the Polish zloty?
When I reviewed the forecasts of currency experts three months ago, no one believed in the continuation of the bull market for the złoty . The median (i.e. the middle value) of the forecasts for the end of 2025 assumed an increase in the euro exchange rate from PLN 4.20 at that time to PLN 4.35. Not a single analytical team assumed at that time that we would end the year with the euro cheaper than in January . The biggest fans of the złoty were analysts from Danske Bank at that time, predicting that the euro exchange rate would remain at PLN 4.20. The most pessimistic forecast assumed an increase in the euro exchange rate to PLN 4.65 and was the work of people from JP Morgan Chase.
And what is it like now? Although a lot has changed, it can be said that… it has remained the same. Although the median forecast for the end of 2025 has decreased significantly (from PLN 4.32 to PLN 4.25), it is still a level close to the current quotes for the euro-zloty pair. Therefore, there is no significant potential for further appreciation of the zloty. Probably most forecasters have concluded that too much is unhealthy.
| Median end-of-period forecasts | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 25 | III quarter 25 | 4Q 25 | Q1 26 | 2026 | |
| EUR | 4.25 PLN | 4.24 PLN | 4.25 PLN | 4.25 PLN | 4.26 PLN |
| USD | 3.89 PLN | 3.91 PLN | 3.89 PLN | 3.86 PLN | 3.85 PLN |
| GBP* | 5.02 PLN | 5.08 PLN | 5.13 PLN | 5.13 PLN | 5.16 PLN |
| CHF* | 4.52 PLN | 4.46 PLN | 4.47 PLN | 4.43 PLN | 4.35 PLN |
| Source: Bloomberg. As of 24/04/2025 *own calculations | |||||
Currency experts have herded closer to the current euro rate and most of them have not dared to stay in their autumn positions. What is more, several forecasts have finally appeared which can be described with a clear conscience as “optimistic”. And so Danske Bank decided to go with the flow of the appreciation of the zloty and lowered the end-of-year forecast of the euro rate from PLN 4.20 to PLN 4.10, remaining the biggest optimist on the zloty market. The euro for less than PLN 4.20 in December 2025 is still seen by experts from TD Securities (PLN 4.12) and Jyske Bank and Prestige Economics (PLN 4.18 each).
The metamorphosis of JP Morgan Chase analysts is significant, as they are now betting on PLN 4.15, which is one of the lowest forecasts on the market. And in the previous edition of currency forecasts, the JP Morgan team was characterized by the least friendly attitude towards our currency, predicting the euro at PLN 4.60 at the end of 2025. The forecast revision by 45 groszy (i.e. by almost 10%) must be considered a capitulation.
At the end of April 2025, the most pessimistic forecast for the złoty in the Bloomberg database belonged to Ballinger & Co. – a widely unknown consulting firm from London. Their forecast for the EUR/PLN exchange rate at the end of December is PLN 4.50. Experts from UniCredit and Capital Economics, on the other hand, see the euro at PLN 4.40 at the end of the year. These are extreme forecasts. On the other hand, 60% of forecasts in the Bloomberg database are currently in the range of PLN 4.20-4.30. That is, very close to today's euro złoty quotes.
Dollar? We haven't made the forecasts realistic yet
Just like in January, the market consensus now assumes a gradual weakening of the dollar in relation to the euro. However, the forecasts published so far by currency experts seem to be very outdated. To put it bluntly, it looks as if the analytical teams of the largest global banks have not yet returned from their Easter vacations. In the Bloomberg database, we still see forecasts of around 1.05 dollars per euro at the end of 2025. And these are reports published only… at the end of March.
Since then, the market has “gone wildly” for analysts. The dollar has weakened significantly on the wave of President Trump’s tariff wars. The EUR/USD exchange rate has risen from less than 1.04 to nearly 1.16 over the past two months, only to fall to around 1.13 later. Market experts are only just catching up and raising their forecasts for the “Eurodollar.” Hence, the “official” median of 1.11 at the end of December still seems to be significantly underestimated. Reports published after April 14 already contain forecasts in the range of 1.08-1.22, with a dominant of 1.14-1.16.
If we were to assume the middle of the latter range ($1.15 per euro), then with the current consensus for the euro-zloty pair, the forecast for the end of 2025 would be around PLN 3.70 per dollar. That is significantly less than the “official” consensus of PLN 3.89. Therefore, if the movement in the EUR/USD exchange rate proves to be permanent, we should not see the dollar for PLN 4 (or more) for a long time. Nevertheless, the Bloomberg database contains several older (and two newer) forecasts at PLN 4.00 per dollar at the end of December 2025. The greatest optimists (Danske Bank and Jyske Bank) are even counting on a drop to around PLN 3.40-3.50 per dollar. Time will tell who will be right here.
A strong franc welcomes you
There was no need to change the forecasts for the Swiss franc. Three months ago, the market consensus assumed that the euro-franc pair would end the year at 0.94. Now, it is 0.95. That is, practically the same. But in the meantime, the EUR/CHF exchange rate has even dropped below 0.92, almost equaling the historical lows from 2024. At the same time, the range of forecasts for the euro-franc pair extends from 0.90 to 1.00. Therefore, no one on the market still expects the euro to become more expensive than the Helvetic currency again.
With this assumption, the franc on the Polish market should not cost more than PLN 4.50. That is, slightly less than it currently does. However, based on most forecasts, there is no greater chance that the CHF/PLN exchange rate will break last year's minimum (PLN 4.25), let alone attempt to go below the psychological level of PLN 4. The last time we saw the franc cost less than PLN 4 was in February 2020 – before the first sanitary lockdowns were announced in Europe.
Analysts also lack confidence in the continued appreciation of the British pound. Sterling has had a strong start to the year. Since January, the GBP/USD rate has risen from 1.21 to 1.34 dollars, recovering from last year's sharp decline in autumn. However, the market consensus assumes that the multi-year highs on the pound-dollar pair will not be broken. With this arrangement, the British currency's quotations in relation to the zloty are to rise to PLN 5.13 by the end of the year. Of course, this is subject to the effect of the lack of corrections to the forecasts for the dollar. Looking in a slightly broader context, we can expect the pound-gold pair to continue this year's sideways trend in the range of PLN 4.90-5.10.
Finally, as usual, I will remind you that in this article we wrote about the median of analysts' forecasts. The forecasts of even the best experts may differ from reality, which has happened quite often in the past. It should also be remembered that exchange rates can be very volatile and during the quarter they can significantly deviate from the levels forecasted at its end.
