Recently, the dollar and euro exchange rates against the hryvnia have not brought any surprises and remain quite stable and predictable. Most likely, this trend will continue until mid-September, which will be facilitated by two factors.
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This forecast was given to “FACTS” by Taras Lesovy, Director of the Department of Financial Markets and Investment Activities of Globus Bank . According to him, these factors will be the favorable economic situation in the country and the policy of the National Bank of Ukraine.
Thus, the favorable economic situation supports the hryvnia and reduces demand for foreign currency, while inflation has slowed down and macro forecasts are being fulfilled. A symbolic confirmation may be the decision of the National Bank to lower the discount rate, which should stimulate economic activity, in particular the development of lending (a meeting of the Monetary Committee, at which a decision on changing the discount rate may be made, is scheduled for September 11).
The second factor was the “managed flexibility” regime, which maintains a balance between supply and demand and forms predictable exchange rate dynamics. Fluctuations remain small and multi-vector, and the difference between the buying and selling rates is minimal. But even if unforeseen factors arise, the National Bank has tools for rapid response. Currency interventions can quickly saturate the market with supply and prevent the exchange rate from growing due to an imbalance in supply and demand.
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As for the euro exchange rate, here too, according to the expert, the forecast is not frightening: the global dollar-euro ratio is likely to remain in the range of 1.15 to 1.2. Since the Ukrainian euro exchange rate depends on both the world quotations of this pair and the hryvnia-dollar exchange rate, significant fluctuations are not expected. Although the euro usually moves more actively than the dollar, there are no reasons for sharp jumps in its value yet.
“Therefore, in the period from September 8 to 14, the market will remain stable, and exchange rate indicators will change within the framework of the trends of recent weeks. The risks of sharp changes in trends are minimal,” Taras Lesovyi summarized.
The exchange rate corridors from September 8 to 14 will be UAH 41.2−41.6 for the dollar and UAH 48−49.5 for the euro on the cash market.
In general, as “FACTY” reported, no significant jumps in currency rates are expected in September.
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