MOSCOW (Sputnik) – Experts shared their views that Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi’s resignation is unlikely to cardinally change the situation in the protest-hit country because elections and a “change of faces” in power cannot resolve core problems inherent in the very economic and political system of the Middle Eastern nation.
Amid weeks-long anti-government protests, Iraqi President Barham Salih said on Thursday that Mahdi agreed to resign once a replacement was found. The Iraqi leader also vowed to hold a snap election after a new election law was enacted.
The news came after influential Shiite politician Muqtada Sadr, one of the leaders of the Sairoon parliamentary bloc, pushed for a no-confidence vote in the government, joining protests. Meanwhile, it was him and his rival Hadi Amiri, the leader of the Iran-backed Badr Organisation, who agreed on Mahdi as a compromise figure for prime minister a year ago.
Yet, in early October, a year after the current government took office following the May elections, rallies started across the country. People demand the ouster of the cabinet, as well as economic reforms, better living conditions, social welfare and an end to corruption. Protests quickly turned violent, leaving more than 250 people killed and hundreds more injured.
No Quick Fixes Exist
Experts agree that one should not expect that the prime minister’s resignation would bring about any fundamental change since the root cause of the instability is the country’s economy, coupled with the flawed political system.
The economy, the expert says, “continues to be mismanaged” while “the standard of living for the majority of the population has continued to decline”, despite Iraq’s enormous oil reserves.
An election early in 2020, according to him, “may bring a change of faces” but is unlikely to result in policy changes as the economic problems are fundamental and “there are no quick fixes”. The expert also noted that it was unclear what normalisation could mean in an Iraqi context, stressing that the country had moved “from crisis to crisis” since independence.
Iraqi security forces walk amidst rubble near a wreckage of a vehicle that was destroyed during clashes in Hammam al-Alil, south of Mosul, during an operation to attack Daesh terrorists in Mosul, Iraq. File photo
Zenonas Tziarras, a researcher at the PRIO Cyprus Center, similarly believes that Mahdi’s resignation is an attempt to appease the masses but in reality, could calm them only for the time being.
Implications for Iran Influence
Another aspect of the current instability in Iraq is the consequences it will have on Shiite Iran’s influence in the country.
According to Tziarras, the political turmoil and snap elections could weaken pro-Iranian/Shiite powers, such as the Badr Organisation led by Amiri, which makes Tehran interested in the country maintaining the political status quo.
Wilson agreed that “the protests are unwelcome in Iran which has enough problems itself resulting from United States sanctions”, doubting, however, that Iran’s influence would be undermined.
The expert explained that religious affiliation matters were very important in the region, with all players accepting that. After all, he stressed, the protests in Iraq and Lebanon are “against the two Arab governments, and not Iran”.
Sourse: sputniknews.com
