Ukrainians should prepare for a significant increase in food prices by the end of the year.
This was stated by the Deputy Chairman of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council, Denys Marchuk, in a comment to Glavred.
VIDEO OF THE DAY
According to Marchuk, the price increase will affect almost all the main items in the consumer basket.
The main reasons for the price increase, the expert believes, are long power outages due to Russian attacks on energy infrastructure, which significantly increase producers' costs. Secondly, the traditional increase in demand before the New Year and Christmas holidays always drives up prices. Thirdly, the seasonal factor and the need to store products in the winter add to the cost of products.
ADVERTISING
Egg prices will rise by at least 10%
If a dozen eggs now cost an average of 80 hryvnias, then by the end of the year the price will increase by at least 10%. Marchuk explains that with the onset of cold weather, the supply from households disappears, leaving only industrial production, which requires significant electricity costs for the operation of incubators. An additional factor will be the increase in the price of feed, in particular corn.
Bread and pasta: plus 5%
ADVERTISING
The production of bakery products is critically dependent on electricity supply. If the blackouts continue, the price of bread could increase by 5%, and if the outages last longer or become more frequent, by as much as 10%. A similar situation is expected with pasta products, in particular vermicelli.
Dairy products: risk of growth of 10%
Dairy farms consume from 80 to 100 kilowatts per hour. Even an hour or two without electricity can lead to significant losses in milk yields, and restoring previous volumes requires from six months to a year. For now, prices have been stabilized thanks to a reduction in milk exports, but if the blackouts continue, the price increase will reach at least 10%.
Meat: moderate growth of 5−7%
ADVERTISING
The pre-holiday excitement will push meat prices up by 5-7%. An additional factor will be the reduction in livestock: pigs by 7%, cows by 7-8%. As for chicken, the increase in feed prices will also affect this. However, the expert notes: meat in Ukraine is already expensive, so there will be no sharp jump.
Oil: plus 10−15%
There will be no shortage of sunflower oil in Ukraine — the country produces about 5.5 million tons with domestic consumption of only 500,000 tons per year. However, production costs, electricity, logistics, and labor costs will cause the price to increase by 10-15%, most likely by 10%.
Vegetables: 10% to 25% in winter
Currently, vegetable prices are 26-30% lower than last year, as the season of mass sales from households continues. However, in December, the storage period begins, which requires significant costs, especially in conditions of blackouts. Due to the insufficient number of vegetable storage facilities and electricity costs, vegetables become more expensive by 10-25% in winter, and closer to spring – even more.
Greenhouse production has already taken off
Cucumbers and tomatoes from greenhouses showed a rapid increase in price already in early November. The cold autumn forced producers to additionally heat greenhouses since September, which significantly increased costs. Prices for greenhouse vegetables are already high and will continue to grow.
Prices will not return
Marchuk warns that history shows that prices will not fall back after the holidays. A decrease is possible only due to a good harvest in the off-season. In winter, new products do not enter the market, prices are supported by imports, so the indicators do not decrease.
The only hope is for inflation to decrease, as announced by the National Bank. In October, it was no more than 10%, and there is a forecast for its further decrease. If this happens, it could at least slow down the growth of food prices.
Let us remind you that mobile communications will also become more expensive in Ukraine, although the price increase will not occur simultaneously for all operators.
