As a result of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which has been ongoing since February 2022, Russia no longer occupies even 20 percent of the country's territory, and the line of military operations stretches for approximately 1,100 km, from the mouth of the Dnieper River on the Black Sea in the south of the country to Sumy Oblast in the northeast.
The territories occupied by Russians in southern Ukraine include Crimea, occupied since 2014, and the eastern part of the Kherson Oblast, located on the left bank of the Dnieper River, along with a fragment of the Mykolaiv Oblast on the Kinburn Spit.
The front line then heads northeast, still along the Dnieper River, reaching the Zaporizhzhia Oblast and Enerhodar with the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which Russia has controlled since March 2022.
From Enerhodar, military operations are ongoing along a line south along the Konka River, leading eastward. The focal point of this line is Orikhiv. Roughly speaking, below this point, located south of Hulyaipol in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast, the front begins to advance again to the northeast, reaching the central-western part of the Donetsk Oblast.
One of the main battlefields in this region is Pokrovsk, still controlled by Ukrainian forces. To the south, east, and north of Pokrovsk are Russian forces, who are trying—so far unsuccessfully—to surround the city.
The Russians are attempting to break through Ukrainian defenses there and seize important logistical routes, including the Pokrovsk-Kramatorsk-Sloviansk route. A few days ago, Kremlin troops advanced towards the town of Dobropillia, but the General Staff in Kyiv assures that the situation in these areas is under control.
Russia also has a stranglehold on the city of Konstantynówka, which it is pressing against from the south, east, and northeast. However, there are natural obstacles in the Konstantynówka area, such as reservoirs, that restrict the movement of enemy forces.
Almost the entire Luhansk Oblast, bordered to the west by Kharkiv Oblast, is under occupation. According to various estimates, Russian forces control between 2 and 4 percent of this region. A small portion of Sumy Oblast, bordering Russia, is also occupied.
Russia has repeatedly reiterated its demands for an end to the war with Ukraine, demanding the full withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from territories Moscow considers its own, including the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions.
Zelensky: Russians failed to capture Dobropilla, where they wanted to show their strength before the meeting in Alaska
Kremlin forces failed to seize the town of Dobropillia in the Donetsk region, where they planned to invade to demonstrate their strength before the US-Russia meeting in Alaska. The culmination of these attempts is the elimination of the enemy, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced Friday evening.
“Ukrainian soldiers are clearing the occupier's positions in the Dobropilla area, and this is very important. We have results. The Russians intended to show their strength before the talks in Alaska, but it ends with the occupier being eliminated,” he said in a video recording on Friday evening.
The Interfax-Ukraine news agency recalled that on Tuesday, August 12, Zelensky reported that the most difficult situation on the front was in the Kramatorsk-Dobropillya area, where the Russians had advanced about 10 kilometers. The aim of this offensive, he noted, was to create a certain information space by August 15, suggesting that Russia was making progress in the war against Ukraine.
Addressing his compatriots in a recording published on the Telegram messaging app, among other places, Zelenskyy pointed out that, ahead of the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin in Alaska, the Kremlin continues its attacks on his country. On Friday, Russians attacked areas including the Dnipro and Sumy regions. One person was killed and another was wounded.
“The war continues because there is not only no order, but also no signal that Moscow is preparing to end this war. They are killing on the day of negotiations. That says it all,” he said.
The Ukrainian president assumed that Saturday, after Trump's talks with Putin, would be a difficult day.
“I spoke with French President (Emmanuel) Macron today. The teams are also in touch. The time difference with Alaska is 11 hours. Therefore, tomorrow will start very early for everyone in Europe. We are preparing for appropriate talks. Russia should end this war, which it started and dragged on for years,” Zelensky emphasized.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly rejected these demands, emphasizing that Ukraine will not recognize Russia's occupation of its territories. Western countries recognize Ukraine's 1991 borders and also reject Russia's annexations.
According to the DeepState project, which monitors troop movements during the war against Ukraine, Russia occupied over 11.5 percent of Ukrainian territory after February 24, 2022. By February 2022, just over 7 percent of Ukrainian lands remained under Kremlin control. In total, the territory currently under occupation constitutes 18.96 percent of Ukraine's land area.
Sky News: Ukraine should adopt porcupine strategy
If Ukraine wants to regain territory occupied by Russia, it should adopt a porcupine strategy, meaning it should become a well-armed, difficult target, said security and defense analyst Michael Clarke in an interview with the British station Sky News. The expert commented on the Trump-Putin summit scheduled for Friday.
The war strategy suggested by the expert assumes that a smaller country can effectively defend itself, among other things, through the use of mobile, short-range defensive weapons. Clarke compared fighting such an adversary to “swallowing a porcupine.”
“The best thing the Ukrainians can do is turn themselves into a well-armed porcupine so that the Russians think twice before trying to take over the rest of Ukraine,” the analyst said on Thursday in an interview with a British station.
Asked whether there were any realistic security guarantees that could deter Russian leader Vladimir Putin from another land invasion, he replied that “nothing that isn't written down on paper” would guarantee Ukraine's security. In his opinion, Ukraine's membership in NATO could change this. However, Clarke also recalled Russia's declarations that it categorically opposes Kyiv's accession to the North Atlantic Alliance.
According to the Sky News interlocutor, the best way to guarantee Ukraine's security would be to provide it with a large number of appropriate weapons systems.
Clarke explained that Ukraine is currently facing an “armed peace” in which it will spend most of this century. In his opinion, Ukraine “will be the Israel of Europe.” “(Ukraine) will become a heavily armed country, surrounded on at least one side by a hostile neighbor that is larger than it,” he emphasized. According to Clarke, Kyiv's continued military investments are the only credible guarantee of security.
U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin are meeting in Alaska on Friday. The Russian-American summit in the U.S. is expected to focus on peace in Ukraine, which has been defending itself against a full-scale Russian military invasion for more than three years. The meeting will take place at Elmendorf-Richardson Air Force Base in Anchorage.
The Russian delegation will include the foreign, defense, and finance ministers, as well as Putin's advisors. According to the Kremlin, no documents are expected to be signed. President Trump stated on Thursday that there is a “25 percent risk” that the meeting with Putin will end in failure. However, if the talks go well, he will call Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and European leaders for them.
From London Marta Zabłocka
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From Kiev Jarosław Junko (PAP)
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