“Google is a digital truth serum” Seth Stephens-Davidowitz, the Author of all lies, told me in a recent interview. “People say to Google that they don’t say, maybe someone else that they couldn’t tell family members, friends, anonymous surveys, or doctors.”
Stephens-Davidowitz was working on his doctorate in Economics at Harvard, when he became obsessed with Google trends, a tool that keeps track of how often searches in the area for a certain period of time.
He spent five years combing through the data. The idea was that you could make much better real-time information about what people think, looking at Google trends data than you could through elections or some other device polling.
Turns out he was right.
As a Barometer of our national consciousness, Google is accurate (and predictive) as it gets. In 2016, when the Republican primaries were just beginning, many experts and sociologists don’t believe trump could win. After he insulted veterans, women, minorities, and countless other constituencies.
But Stephens-Davidowitz saw hints in their research on Google that suggested trump was much more serious than many expected. Search queries that contain racial epithets and jokes were peaks throughout the country during the initial launch of trump, and not just in the South but in the Northern part of the state of new York, Pennsylvania, Western, Eastern Ohio, rural Illinois, West Virginia, and industrial Michigan.
Stephens-Davidowitz saw in Google trends information, racially polarized electorate, and one primed to respond to ethno-nationalist rhetoric trump.
There were earlier signs. Obama’s 2008 election night, Stephens-Davidowitz found that “in every hundred Google searches that included the word ‘Obama’ is also the ‘KKK’” or N-word. Looking for racist websites, such as lightning storm and spikes.
“There was darkness and hatred that has been hidden from traditional sources,” Stephens-Davidowitz says. “These searches are difficult to reconcile with the society in which racism is a small factor.”
Race relations are only one of many interesting discoveries in the Stephens-Davidowitz study. It also explores the gap between our social life, media and our real lives, between what we talk about publicly and what we think about private.
I spoke with him about the book and why he thinks Google trends is “the most important data set ever assembled on human psyche”. I also ask him about the most striking conclusion is that America is undergoing a crisis of spontaneous abortion in places where access to abortion clinics is sparse.
Our lightly edited conversation.
Sean Illing
You refer to Google as a digital truth serum. What can I say about myself?
Seth Stephens-Davidowitz
People say to Google that they don’t say, maybe someone else that they couldn’t tell family members, friends, anonymous surveys, physicians. People feel very comfortable confessing things to Google. In General, Google tells us that people are different than they present themselves. One way they differ, I must say that they’re nastier and meaner than they often imagine yourself.
I did a lot of research on racism, for example, and I was shocked at how often people make racist, especially to jokes mocking African-Americans. This is a hidden ugliness can predict many behaviors, particularly in the political sphere.
Sean Illing
Speaking of politics, you believed, way back in the beginning of 2016, that trump was a serious candidate. You searched for search activity on Google, saw the resurgence of racist and sexist search, and thought it was a sign of things to come.
Seth Stephens-Davidowitz
Yes, I said that I thought trump would win very early, but I’m not sure if it was based purely on the data or just because I’m a complete pessimist. I’ve always been pretty pessimistic about this sort of thing.
Sean Illing
Welcome to the club.
Seth Stephens-Davidowitz
I always predict terrible things will happen, with or without data. But I think there were probably some clues on the Internet that trump should have been taken more seriously than other people were with him.
Sean Illing
What did you see exactly?
Seth Stephens-Davidowitz
The first thing that the level of racism in this country was much higher than I realized. I think a lot of people thought that trump will be made as soon as he started saying all these racist things. I think when you look at this data, You see the demand for this type of material.
I mean, I even studied white nationalist sites like Stormfront for a long time, long before most people knew about it, and yet I was shocked by how widespread the appeal of these sites.
Sean Illing
That’s what we had to pay attention, not these outdated polling methods.
Seth Stephens-Davidowitz
You can’t really predict with polls, who is going to turn into an election because everyone is saying they are going to vote, no one wants to admit that they do not intend to vote. But you can predict who is going to vote based on their search queries in Google. Search people how to vote or where to vote, or polling weeks before the election and predicts that the turnout will be high.
In this election, you saw very clearly in the data that there was a huge reduction in these searches in cities with huge African-American population, for example. It was very clear data of Google search that black turnout will be in 2016, and this was one of the reasons Clinton did much worse than predicted by the polls.
Sean Illing
The political usefulness of these data is obvious, but there seems to be no limit to what we can learn about ourselves. In the book, you call it “the most important data set ever assembled on human psyche”.
Seth Stephens-Davidowitz
I think the only real competition is Facebook, and I don’t think it’s an interesting data set because people are much less honest on Facebook. People are really honest on Google, so they tell Google what they don’t tell anybody else. They are looking for answers to questions they did not ask anyone. I found this over the past few years: to take any subject area and look at a Google search and you can find something new and interesting and surprising that we didn’t know. Whether it’s hatred or an abortion or ill-treatment of children or political beliefs or pregnancy or anxiety or depression. Almost every time I turn to Google, there is something interesting.
Sean Illing
I think the election is still useful, but will cost much the best way to get a sense of what people think about a controversial or personal subjects.
Seth Stephens-Davidowitz
Yes, and it’s the most interesting things.
Sean Illing
Without a doubt.
Seth Stephens-Davidowitz
They are also often the most important. One of the studies I describe in the book is the study of Islamophobia. It’s not Islamophobia, it’s like Islamo-rage, or something like that. It is, essentially, people with horribly cruel thoughts towards Muslim Americans. People are looking for things like “kill Muslims” or “I hate Muslims” or “Islam is evil”. These people are mainly maniacs, and you can see the moment when the search and climb, when these fall.
What is interesting is that we’re talking about a relatively small group of maniacs. The average American does not search for “to kill Muslims” or “I hate Muslims”, it’s a small group, but it is also an important group, because such people can create a lot of problems. They tend to commit crimes of hate and even kill Muslims.
That’s what I mean when I say you can draw conclusions on topics that are really important.
Sean Illing
Zoom in a little more back and make a broader sense of the American psyche, as shown by Google. What Americans are most afraid of or worried about?
Seth Stephens-Davidowitz
I would say that your own body is pretty big. If you look at the data from Google Adwords bodily security, the people who go and are looking for ways to lose weight or heal your body, it’s almost as popular among men than among women, which is not usually talked about. Twenty percent of search queries want to change their Breasts from men how to get rid of man Boobs. I think the male bodily security, as a rule, did not say, but it’s very common.
Sean Illing
This is interesting.
Seth Stephens-Davidowitz
Yes, and not what you would expect, given our cultural biases.
Sean Illing
You find that people are mostly dishonest about them actually care? In the age of social media, every warrior for justice — You post an article or two, to proclaim their outrage or support, and boom you are “turned on” person. But it’s not real active and doesn’t require any real commitment.
Seth Stephens-Davidowitz
That’s a good question. I explored this in my leverage research activities. I think many people exaggerate how much they are concerned about trump. This is the kind of game that people play. If you look at what really keeps people awake at night that actually wakes them up at 3:00 in the morning in a cold sweat, it is, as a rule, economic interests or health paranoia or legitimate concerns, mostly selfish interests. But I think there’s something a little frustrating about this fact.
People love to say that they are more concerned about global problems, about trump and what it can do for the world than selfish concern about their own economy and the health or legal problems. I think people are exaggerating. There’s a lot of lying about what we really care about what really motivates us and what really we are very sad that really worries us.
Sean Illing
What is the most shocking conclusion of your research?
Seth Stephens-Davidowitz
I am sure that the United States has a crisis of self-induced abortion right now, depending on the volume of search queries. I was amazed at how often people are looking for ways to abort yourself now. These searches are concentrated in those parts of the country where it is difficult to get an abortion and they increased significantly when it became harder to get an abortion. They in addition, I calculated, there is no pregnancy in those States that do not appear in any of the abortion and birth rates.
It’s very disturbing, and I think not speak. But I think, based on the data, it is obvious what is happening.
Sean Illing
It’s terrible if it’s true. Give me the good news. You found something nice?
Seth Stephens-Davidowitz
I think it’s refreshing to know that we are not alone in our fears or insecurities or desires. Alcoholics anonymous this phrase, don’t compare your insides to other people outsides. But it’s hard because we can’t see inside other people, but I think with this retrieval, we actually first see the insides of other people, and it shows that we have to justify ourselves.
Sean Illing
You think we should spend less time on the Internet?
Seth Stephens-Davidowitz
Well, I want people to spend a lot of time on the Internet, so the data is getting better and I can do more research.
Sean Illing
I guess I’m going in the right answer. You would even say that people have to take it less seriously, not to take their emotional cues from your feed Facebook?
Seth Stephens-Davidowitz
Of course. Social networks can be dangerous, if you think this is real life. It is not, and we must not forget that. But people can buy my book, and then at any time they feel jealous they can read and remember that this is all wrong.
Sean Illing
I think we should leave it right there.
Seth Stephens-Davidowitz
Do.
Sourse: vox.com
