Jones Knows has been banging in the World Cup winners and he has more betting angles to consider in the final game of a pulsating tournament.
Any winners for Jones Knows in the knockout stages?
- Morocco vs Spain to go to penalties (11/2)
- Seven or more South Korea shots vs Brazil (Evs)
- USA to have two or more first half shots on target (5/6)
- Argentina to win & under 3.5 goals (5/6)
- Manuel Akanji to have one or more shots vs Portugal (11/10)
- Argentina vs Netherlands to go to penalties (9/2)
- Over 2.5 goals in France vs England (Evens)
- Argentina to win to nil vs Croatia (13/8)
- Morocco to have nine or more shots vs France (Evens)
- Best player, goal and match of the World Cup?
- Sky Sports’ World Cup team of the tournament
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Argentina vs France, World Cup final, Sunday 3pm
Image: France take on Argentina in the World Cup final
Allowing the footballing gods to influence decision-making isn’t a sustainable way of making shrewd calls in this game. But in this instance, there is a footballing god at the heart of a football match for whom the stars are aligning for. It’s Lionel Messi’s World Cup, isn’t it?
France have allowed space in front of their back four all tournament but have survived in the big moments thanks to either some wayward finishing or decisive defending. In their three knockout games, France have conceded an average of almost 14 shots per 90 minutes to a backdrop of a per 90 minutes expected goals ratio of 1.72. A repeat of that against Messi will leave France in trouble. It’s Argentina for me but a better bet at the prices can be found in the goals market.
- World Cup final: Argentina vs France
- World Cup results | Download the Sky Sports App
The way the goal line markets have moved it suggests punters are expecting a low-scoring final. You can get just 1/2 with Sky Bet on under 2.5 goals. I’d usually agree with that price in a game of such magnitude where it can go the distance but there are big arguments to back goals in this match-up, especially with the price of 6/4 with Sky Bet on offer for over 2.5 goals.
A basic drawdown of recent total goal numbers in both teams matches point to the game going over the 2.5 line.
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Argentina’s games are averaging 2.8 goals per-90 minute this tournament and France’s coming in at 3.0 goals per-90 minutes. Plus, even though both defences were on top and kept clean sheets in the semi-finals, facing Croatia and Morocco is a different proposition to stopping the two best attacking players in the planet in Messi and Kylian Mbappe.
These two only need low probability chances to score which means even the best defences around will struggle to contain them.
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So, you’ve got the overall goal average being positive and elite attacking talent on the pitch, what is keeping that other price so low? Perhaps it’s recent history as six of the last eight finals have produced less than three goals. However, if you stretch it back throughout history, the average goal count in a World Cup final is 3.2 in 90 minutes. My enthusiasm for goals in this game burns bright. I’ll be certainly backing that 6/4 for three or more goals.
And if you fancy combining an Argentina win into the mix, you can dip your rod into fish out 4/1 with Sky Bet. Not too shabby that.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | BEST BET: Over 2.5 goals (6/4 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
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Sourse: skysports.com
