The World Cup round of 16 is in full swing and our tipster Jones Knows takes to the prediction chair to dig out some juicy betting angles.
- World Cup results | Fixtures | Full schedule for Qatar 2022
- Download the Sky Sports App
Japan vs Croatia, Monday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Japan might not be done at this World Cup just yet.
Hajime Moriyasu’s side sensationally topped Group E by beating Germany and Spain while also losing Costa Rica. This is a team built to counter-attack and play with energy and pace – as seen in those victories over the European heavyweights where they averaged just 23 per cent of possession but were thoroughly efficient and dangerous with their limited ball-time.
Image: Japan players celebrate their equaliser
Croatia will adopt the same possession-based style as Spain and Germany which may just play straight into the hands of Japan, who are the outsiders at 6/4 with Sky Bet to qualify. That price looks one to take very seriously considering the lack of legs and mobility in this ageing Croatia side. They were fortunate Romelu Lukaku squandered chances in the final group game otherwise Croatia were going home after a timid performance all across the pitch. Tournament experience counts for plenty at this stage so they have that in their favour but Japan really have nothing to fear. They can make the quarters.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Brazil vs South Korea, Monday 7pm
The time is now for Brazil to show they are worthy favourites for this World Cup.
Trending
- Papers: Man Utd set for £50m January swoop for Gakpo
- World Cup 2022 schedule, last-16 fixtures and QF permutations
- Sterling returning to UK after armed break-in at his home
- Sterling misses out with ‘family matter’ | Southgate unsure of return date
- Southgate: France are the biggest test England could face
- England player ratings – have your say!
- World Cup last-16 predictions: Japan to surprise Croatia
- England vs France on Saturday | Spain or Portugal in SFs?
- Transfer Centre LIVE! Nottingham Forest complete Scarpa transfer
- Neville: Bellingham can do everything | Keane: He looks a world-class midfielder
- Video
- Latest News
To my eye, there doesn’t seem an awful lot between four or five teams at the head of the betting and in tournament football the margins are so fine, so I’m struggling to see why Brazil are so strong at 9/4 with Sky Bet in the outright market.
South Korea have shown a clear defensive vulnerability at dealing with crosses into their box so Brazil should be able to fill their boots at various points in this match – as the match prices suggest so.
Also See:
Image: South Korea celebrate at full-time after defeating Portugal to progress to the last 16 in Qatar
Something which does look a shade overpriced is the South Korea shots line. Although they lack quality and defensive know-how, Paulo Bento’s side do move the ball nicely in midfield and won’t be overawed by playing Brazil. That confidence in getting up the pitch does usually lead to good territory and opportunities for shots.
They’ve had 35 shots in total in their last two games against Ghana and Portugal when tasked with chasing the game and the same scenario should play out here with not much to lose against the tournament favourites. I make the Evens with Sky Bet about them having nine or more shots very fair indeed.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1
Morocco vs Spain, Tuesday 3pm
Gary Neville copped a fair bit of noise for questioning Spain’s ability to score goals just before they smashed seven past Costa Rica. It’s a perfect example of how one freak game shouldn’t overshadow longer-term evidence. In their other two games against Germany and Japan, they created an average expected goals tally of 0.83 per 90 which is more in line with Neville’s analysis of them when assessing their attack in the last few years.
That isn’t a figure that screams a team completely at one with their attacking process. Morocco, with a hefty number of fans in attendance, have the structure in defence to stifle Spain in a low-scoring encounter.
- Why African nations have thrived in Qatar
When foreseeing a low-goal total in tournament football, the draw and the game to go the distance is a massive runner as the correct scores of 0-0 or 1-1 take up a big chunk of what the possible outcome will be if the goals are to be sparse.
Looking at all last-16 World Cup clashes since the 1998 tournament, nine of the 48 matches have gone all the way to penalties – working out around an 18 per cent strike rate. You can get 11/2 with Sky Bet for your money for this encounter to go to spot-kicks which implies a 15 per cent chance of that scenario occurring. I’d have it closer to 25 per cent, so that makes the 11/2 a bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 (Spain to win on penalties)
Portugal vs Switzerland, Tuesday 7pm
I think the markets have priced this one all wrong. Portugal are 2/5 with Sky Bet to qualify and Switzerland are 7/4.
Those figures hugely undervalue the Swiss and their nous at playing in these type of knockout situations – they are a devilishly hard team to knock out as seen when taking both France and Italy to penalties in the last European Championships. Keep it simple and back them to qualify against a Portugal side that look overrated on what we’ve seen so far.
Along with staying in matches when under the cosh, what good tournament sides do is carry a big threat from set-pieces.
As mentioned, last-16 World Cup matches since 1998 average a goal from a set-piece every 0.6 games which is a huge number and shows just how important those margins can be in knockout football.
Manchester City defender Manuel Akanji has had three shots at this World Cup, generating an expected goals tally of 0.4 as he somehow failed to open the scoring from eight yards out in the win over Cameroon. He is a threat from set-piece situations and the 11/10 with Sky Bet for him to have one or more shots looks a fantastic starting point for a punt on this match. Those with a greater desire to dream should also be pointed in the direction of the 66/1 for him to score first and the 40/1 to score a header.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 (Switzerland to win on penalties)
Super 6 Activates International Mode!
Super 6 is going International! Could you win £100,000 for free? Entries by 7pm Friday.
Sourse: skysports.com
