What’s that coming over the hill? It’s a monster! Brighton have emerged from the shadows and look a great bet at 9/2 to finish in the Premier League’s top four this season. Manchester United be warned.
Brighton are no longer the team that just tickle the elite. They have put down the feather dusters used under Graham Potter and replaced them with battering rams under Roberto De Zerbi.
There is a ruthlessness and drive about what Brighton are doing.
It is exciting. It is courageous.
Teams do not know how to stop them. Declan Rice said chasing Brighton’s midfield when 4-0 down earlier this season was “demoralising” and “embarrassing”. That domination is usually something we associate with Manchester City and, at times this season, Arsenal.
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It might sound fanciful, but Brighton are not far away from that type of level.
Like Newcastle, Brighton’s place among the elite is one to take very seriously. Liverpool, Tottenham and, interestingly, Manchester United should all be very worried about just what De Zerbi’s side can achieve in their final 11 games.
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Sky Bet's top-four odds
- Manchester United: 1/4
- Newcastle: 2/7
- Tottenham: 3/1
- Brighton: 9/2
- Liverpool: 5/1
They are capable of crashing the top-four party and 9/2 with Sky Bet for them to do so is certainly a punt to consider.
The 1/4 with Sky Bet on Manchester United’s top-four hopes calculates to an 80 per cent chance. That overestimates them, where the illustrious history of the club is pushing their price to shorter than it should be, hence my willingness to get involved in this market.
Get on Brighton to finish top four at 9/2!
Our tipster Jones Knows is backing Brighton to crash the top-four party. Fancy following him in?
Brighton are on their heels and, with just a four-point gap to overcome (if winning their game in hand), are rated to be equal to, if not better than, Manchester United from what we have seen from both teams in 2023 when assessing the reliable starting prices from within the betting market.
For instance, they are threatening to go off favourites in their one-off FA Cup semi-final at Wembley against Erik ten Hag’s men.
Brighton’s aggressive style of play, performance data, betting market confidence, run-in, lack of pressure and vulnerability surrounding Manchester United all make that 9/2 a price dripping with value.
Possession with a purpose
“De Zerbi is doing such a good job, there will be clubs all across Europe looking at him,” said Jamie Carragher on a recent Monday Night Football after analysing Brighton’s win over West Ham in March.
De Zerbi has got Brighton playing like a Champions League team – and is doing it in arguably the highest-quality league in the world with the club having allowed three key players in Marc Cucurella, Yves Bissouma and Leandro Trossard to be sold for a net transfer spend of +£90m. It is a remarkable success story and showcases just how efficient and revolutionary Brighton are with their recruitment strategies.
They are playing like a top team – and we are talking about Arsenal and Manchester City levels here from what we have seen in 2023. Usually a team that posts excellent results over a short period struggles to mirror that excellence with the underlying numbers. Not Brighton.
De Zerbi’s team strangle the opposition with possession. It starts from the goalkeeper and two centre-backs, who are encouraged to take the ball and draw the opposition on. The manager is challenging his players to play football like the best teams on the planet do, showing bravery, skill and playing with a purpose. His players are taking on that information, too, as shown by Brighton averaging 62.5 per cent of possession since De Zerbi took charge. It is more than Arsenal, and just 0.26 less than Pep Guardiola’s possession machine at Manchester City.
The stats also show they are sustaining attacks – as seen by their 10+ pass sequence data, which is a measurement of a period of play that contains 10 or more passes. Again, only Man City are above them in that metric.
Trust the process: Brighton’s is the best in PL
Brighton are creating bigger and better chances than when Potter was at the helm. There is now edge to their attacks as they look to create one-on-ones for their dangerous attacking players like Solly March and Kaoru Mitoma, who are so adept at providing penetration from wide areas.
Image: Evan Ferguson celebrates after putting Brighton in front at Bournemouth
A delve into their expected goals data in 2023 paints an incredible picture.
It showcases an underlying process that is the best in the Premier League over a healthy 11-game sample size. Brighton are working at an expected goals per-90 figure of 2.5 – a return that is 0.4 higher than Manchester City’s. And, as the table below shows, their expected goals difference of 1.40 (expected goals for minus expected goals against) is by some way the best in the Premier League in 2023.
It is also worth noting where their top-four rivals rank: Liverpool (+0.1), Tottenham (0) and Manchester United (0) are all being left in Brighton’s wake when it comes to the underlying numbers.
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Market forces rate Brighton so highly
A really interesting backdrop to the development of this Brighton side under De Zerbi is just how strongly the betting markets rate them. Over the past 10 years, the way teams are priced up by the markets has seen a shift towards a more data-led model which pays particular attention to the performance metrics put up by teams – rather than just simply results led. Ironically, that type of modelling was used by Brighton owner Tony Bloom to help him beat the bookmakers before it was openly available and help him accumulate his fortune.
The strength of a team’s odds in the match results market provides a reliable guide to what kind of levels a team are operating it.
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“Brighton are making all the right noises in the reflected match prices right now,” said Rob Carr of Sky Bet’s pre-match football trading team.
“The full-time result ‘starting price’ at kick-off of fixtures is a great guide to demonstrate the team’s percentage chance of winning and can be used as a tool to compare against other top-four hopefuls to see how the Seagulls are rated.
“A couple of on-site Sky Bet prices are a great guide to reflect this right now, with Tottenham holding only very slight 6/4 favouritism at home to Brighton on Saturday. When you remove the advantage that comes from playing at home to the price, this demonstrates that Brighton are rated considerably better than Spurs.
“For some historical examples, Brighton’s starting price at home to Fulham on February 18 (1/2 with Sky Bet) is actually shorter than the 4/7 that Graham Potter’s Chelsea kicked off at against the same side only two weeks before. This shows us that De Zerbi has his side rated better than the team Potter left for – and has now been sacked from.
“The final tell is how their full-time result price is shortening from release, until kick-off. Two weeks before the game you could’ve backed Brighton at 3/4 with Sky Bet away to Bournemouth, but on kick-off you’re only getting 1/2 – around a nine per cent shift, which is huge for a pre-match price.
“The same a month ago at Elland Road, where in two weeks Brighton’s price shortened from 23/20 into solid odds on at 4/5 – almost a 10 per cent shift. This shows us that there is consistent strong backing for De Zerbi’s side as the market forms from creation to kick-off.”
Remaining fixtures – nothing to fear
A reason why the bookmakers are happy to dangle a juicy price on Brighton’s top-four chances may have something to do with their incredibly-difficult remaining fixture list. De Zerbi’s men still have to play all of their top-seven rivals – including Tottenham this Saturday before a trip to Chelsea on Saturday April 15.
Brighton's remaining fixtures
- Sat 8 April: Tottenham (a)
- Sat 15 April: Chelsea (a)
- Weds 26 April: Nottingham Forest (a)
- Sat 29 April: Wolves (h)
- Thurs 4 May: Man Utd (h)
- Mon 8 May: Everton (h)
- Sat 13 May: Arsenal (a)
- Sat 20 May: Southampton (h)
- Sun 28 May: Aston Villa (a)
- TBC: Man City (h)
- TBC: Newcastle (a)
Having watched his team many times this season and attended his press conferences, De Zerbi has an aura – one you associate with the top managers. He plays off emotions on the touchline. And he treats his players like family. He is not afraid to talk of targets, openly admitting he has challenged his team to finish in the European spots. Many managers would play down their hopes – I’m looking at you, Graham Potter – but De Zerbi is more than happy to ramp up the expectation. When he talks you can see that determination. He makes you want to follow.
This belief, hunger and aggressive style of football in the backdrop of a no-pressure environment to achieve, actually makes their run-in something to look at in a positive view. It is a chance to take points off your rivals in a six-point environment.
And Brighton will take points based on their recent record against Arsenal, Man City, Spurs, Man Utd, Newcastle, Chelsea and Liverpool.
In their last 14 matches across all competitions against the aforementioned opponents, Brighton have won eight of those fixtures, winning the aggregate score 27-19 while also winning expected goals battle 18.24-17.94. That is a phenomenal set of results for a team outside the so-called elite.
It is time to take them seriously.
They are monsters.
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Sourse: skysports.com
