Arsenal look very vulnerable favourites up against Nottingham Forest, who can win and surge to safety as tipster Jones Knows previews the weekend Premier League card.
Tottenham vs Brentford, Saturday 12.30pm
It’s hard to quantify how much Brentford will miss Ivan Toney’s presence and goalscoring exploits as the sample size is small. He’s missed just four away games since Brentford’s promotion and although the Bees are winless in that time, they played with great authority in narrow defeats at Arsenal and Manchester City whilst grabbing two 2-2 draws with Leeds and Nottingham Forest.
Brentford, like Brighton, tend not to rely on one player to make their machine function so I’d expect them to be as competitive and aggressive as ever at Spurs, especially with the carrot of finishing seventh and therefore qualifying for the Europa Conference League a possibility still.
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That should act as a healthy motivation factor against a Tottenham team that just want this season to finish now although the extra quality in the Spurs attack balances that out. The corresponding fixture ended in a draw and Spurs are due some stalemates at home having drawn just two of their last 47 Premier League home games. The 11/4 with Sky Bet for the game to finish level pegging is quite juicy.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Any winners for Jones Knows last week?
- Trent Alexander-Arnold to score – 9/1
- 6+ Newcastle corners vs Leeds – 4/5
- Under 2.5 goals in Man Utd vs Wolves – 5/4
- Brighton to beat Arsenal – 4/1
- Nottingham Forest to draw with Chelsea – 7/2
- Wins for Fulham, Liverpool, Man City
Bournemouth vs Manchester United, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Manchester United are more stumbling than charging over the line in the race for the top four but that is what shrewd managers can conjure up: results when perhaps confidence is low.
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It’s hard to argue against their win possibilities here when you consider their near-perfect record away from home against the bottom half. They’ve taken 23 points from 27 available and conceded just five goals in those nine matches. The market has them priced accordingly though at 4/9 with Sky Bet so there isn’t much scope there.
It’s hard to see United being too generous in allowing Bournemouth big chances but there’s one angle that keep on nagging me to get involved and it involves the Cherries finally being awarded a penalty. They are the only Premier League side this season not to be awarded one – only eight teams have gone through a whole season without being given a spot kick so it’s a very rare occurrence. You can get 13/2 with Sky Bet on Bournemouth netting a penalty.
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SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Back Jones Knows' 5/1 treble!
Tosin Adarabioyo to have 1+ shots, Forest double chance, Leeds most booking points vs West Ham!
Fulham vs Crystal Palace, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
In what should be a free-flowing, pressure-free game played in the Craven Cottage sunshine, the goals should flow, so I’m heading to the goalscorer markets.
Roy Hodgson has added plenty of panache and flamboyancy to Palace since returning as boss but one area of concern has been their declining numbers at defending set pieces. They’ve shipped five goals since Hodgson took back the reins – only Bournemouth have conceded more in that period. This has alerted me to the price of Tosin Adarabioyo in the anytime market where you can snaffle up 22/1 with Sky Bet on him finding the net. Since coming back into the team, the centre-back has had seven shots in his last five home games and is the usual first point of contact from Fulham’s set pieces. His last goal came in September away at Nottingham Forest and he’s usually good for at least two goals a season so his turn might be coming. Those who like a shorter price should also take note of the 10/11 with Sky Bet on him registering at least one shot in the game.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-2 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Tosin Adarabioyo to score (22/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Liverpool vs Aston Villa, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
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The goal expectancy looks too high for this clash where there is plenty on the line still.
Aston Villa are a cagey team away from Villa Park, where they sit a little deeper than their fantastically aggressive high line plays at home and soak up a bit more pressure. All bar one of Unai Emery’s 11 games in charge away from home have fallen under the 3.5 goal line (3-1 defeat to Manchester City) with the average total match goals scored coming in at 2.09 per-game. Meanwhile, Liverpool are in result mode opposed to relentless mode with five of their last six wins coming via a one-goal margin as although their overall performance level is hitting a consistent level it’s not the usual tubthumping attacking style we’ve been accustom to witnessing over the years.
I’d be happy to invest in the under 2.5 goals line at a generous 6/4 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0
Wolves vs Everton, Saturday 3pm
Humongous game alert.
I always make my own tissue prices without looking at the actual prices to see whether my view is aligned with the market. It’s not an exact science but does tend to help when trying to fathom when a price could be slightly wrong and tipping in my favour. My tissue had Everton priced up at 2/1 for this encounter and I was certain I’d be getting a bigger actual price than that, hence I’d be very interested in an away win. However, disappointedly, the market agrees with me to the extent that Everton, despite just two away wins all season, are favourites to beat a Wolves team who have won four on the bounce at home without conceding.
That has frazzled my brain.
As now, at the prices, it’s a home win that is looking attractive despite me liking the work Sean Dyche is doing at Everton.
I give up.
Draw it is, which isn’t a bad result for Dyche’s side with Bournemouth at home to come.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
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Arsenal have thrilled and entertained in equal measure this season yet the disappointment of falling short to Manchester City was slapped all over their performance last weekend.
They have been top for 248 days this season – it would be the most days at the top without winning the title in top division history. It’s going to be a big challenge for Mikel Arteta to lift those chins up.
And with a defence that has been creaking for two months now, there looks a serious chance of them being gobbled by Forest at the City Ground – like many have before them. Steve Cooper’s men have lost just two of their last 14 Premier League home games.
At 8/15 with Sky Bet, Arsenal are ludicrously short with so much on the line for Forest.
My Anthony Taylor carding goalkeepers angle failed to deliver any fruit last weekend with Jordan Pickford and Everton falling behind too early to make that bet a runner – but I’m willing to roll the dice again here with Taylor in charge. With Forest to make a game of this, there is a huge slice of value in backing Nottingham Forest to win and Keylor Navas to be carded at 50/1 with Sky Bet. Taylor remains the strictest referee when it comes to time wasting in the Premier League – he shows no patience for it.
He has shown 14 yellow cards for that offence this season – the most of any referee – with nine of those for goalkeepers. That’s six more than any other Premier League referee has produced for goalkeepers wasting time. He even booked Ederson after just 36 minutes in Manchester City’s win at The Emirates. Navas, who has been carded twice for timewasting since joining from PSG, hopefully can catch his eye as Forest grind their way to victory, and ultimately safety.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Keylor Navas to be carded & Nottingham Forest to win (50/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
West Ham vs Leeds, Sunday 1.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
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Instead of trusting Leeds in the match market, I’m willing to invest in their chances of picking up the most booking points of the two teams at 4/5 with Sky Bet. West Ham have been shown the fewest yellow cards (10) over the past 11 games in the Premier League and traditionally David Moyes’ tenure at the Hammers has seen their card count be very low due to their desire to defend deep and hit on the counter. With the stakes so high for Leeds the possibility of cynical fouls, timewasting if they go ahead and general aggression certainly makes that 4/5 stand out. Even though it’s a small sample size, Leeds have been shown seven cards in the two games under Sam Allardyce.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Brighton vs Southampton, Sunday 2pm
If you are backing Brighton at 1/5 with Sky Bet – then I’d suggest sports betting probably isn’t for you. Not that you won’t cop a return but over a long period if you continuously back prices like that then you’ll be going through some painful open wallet surgery. Roberto De Zerbi is doing extraordinary things but this Brighton side have failed to beat Nottingham Forest, Fulham, Brentford, Aston Villa and Everton at home under his watch. And, this will be their third game in seven days and there were signs at Newcastle that perhaps this style of football is hard to maintain when playing games every three days.
Southampton are on the floor, of course, and deserve to be heading to the Championship – but they do carry bits and bobs of Premier League quality to hurt Brighton in a pressure-free environment. Brighton will dominate the ball, the expected goal numbers, the big chances – but they always give you a chance. Southampton to win or draw at 7/2 is just too big to ignore.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
Manchester City vs Chelsea, Sunday 4pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
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Champions elect Manchester City’s numbers at home are getting ridiculous. City have won 32 of their last 34 home games in all competitions since April 2022 and have won the last 15 home games by an aggregate of 53-7. With the sniff of a trophy in their nostrils, there surely will be no stopping them here so where does the value lie?
City captain Ilkay Gundogan could be making his final appearance at Etihad Stadium with City’s final two Premier League games being away from home. He is out of the contract in the summer and has yet to sign a new deal. And he may sign off by lifting the trophy – and such is his electric form of late, the 11/4 with Sky Bet on offer for him to score at anytime does seem a little chunky considering he has bagged four goals in his last two Premier League games.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-0
Newcastle vs Leicester, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
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Leicester’s hope of causing an upset will be based on their ability to counter-attack with pace. Dean Smith has certainly added more emphasis on direct attacking with Jamie Vardy and Harvey Barnes told to play very aggressively up against the defensive line. This is causing Leicester’s offside numbers to spike and the markets haven’t quite caught up with that increase as yet. Since Smith took charge Leicester are averaging 3.8 offsides per game with them passing the three or more line in five of those six matches.
That bodes well for the chances of the three or more Leicester offside line landing in this one with a generous 6/4 available with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1
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