Sky Sports’ tipster Jones Knows previews the midweek Premier League action, picking out some prop bets that involve Marc Roca fouls and Fulham offsides.
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Wolves vs Crystal Palace, Tuesday 7.30pm
Me and Wolves are going to become great comrades soon enough, once Julen Lopetegui shapes his squad over the summer. Yet, while inconsistency remains – they can beat Brentford and Tottenham but lose to Leeds and Leicester – I’m staying clear on their match outcomes. This game does stand a fair chance of being rather uneventful for the opening 45 minutes though.
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Since last season only Chelsea (30) have been involved in more 0-0s at half-time than Wolves (29) and Palace (26). The 11/8 with Sky Bet for a 0-0 at half-time looks a nice bet for the brave souls that can stomach that kind of a play.
Cue a 3-3 thriller, then!
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-0
Aston Villa vs Fulham, Tuesday 7.45pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
If an edge remains, don’t fear backing it again and again. Opposition offsides against Aston Villa remain a sustainable angle of attack.
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In their last 10 home Premier League games since the World Cup restart, opposition teams have been caught offside 45 times by Villa, working to an average of 4.5 per game. It showcases just how aggressive the defensive high line is under Unai Emery and it’s that bravery at the back which is providing the base for such an impressive set of results.
Image: Aston Villa head coach Unai Emery loves his players to press high and catch the opposition offside
Fulham without Aleksandar Mitrovic are having to play more intricately through the lines with pace and guile from their front four of Willian, Andreas Pereira, Harry Wilson and one of Bobby Decordova-Reid and Dan James. That style of play should see the offside flag being given a good workout once again. The Fulham three or more offsides at 11/10 with Sky Bet and four or more line at 5/2 are both worth backing.
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SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Leeds vs Leicester, Tuesday 8pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
This will be tense. This will be tight.
With so much on the line and the Elland Road faithful likely to play their part, I’m heading to the player fouls market for a play.
Marc Roca has been Javi Gracia’s midfield general, playing with great aggression which has seen his foul count rocket. He’s made 17 fouls in his last eight starts, with those backing him to make two or more fouls in each of those games heavily in profit as it’s landed in seven of those eight. Up against James Maddison, who has drawn 2.65 fouls per-90 this season, the 13/8 for Roca to make two or more once again makes plenty of appeal.
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Talking of Maddison, he will fancy his chances of making plenty of things happen against this Leeds defence. As expected he is well found across most of the prop markets, but the 8/11 with Sky Bet on him having a shot on target should land. It’s a bet that would have copped in eight of his last 10 starts. You can combine the Roca two or more fouls bet with a Maddison shot on target using the bet builder feature on Sky Bet, which comes out at a juicy 4/1.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Nottingham Forest vs Brighton, Wednesday 7.30pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
I’m kicking every ball with Roberto De Zerbi as Brighton try to stage a late fight for a Champions League spot – they are still to play Manchester United and Newcastle, so all is certainly not lost on my 9/2 investment. However, I can’t be having them at 1/2 with Sky Bet for this away day.
The fatigue factor from Wembley, both mentally and physically, hasn’t been factored into that price. Brighton’s squad lacks depth so rotation won’t really be an option for De Zerbi despite all his key men playing 120 minutes in the FA Cup semi-final. The hangover factor has been at play before. All four of the last ‘non-big-six’ teams have lost their subsequent match following an FA Cup semi-final defeat, including Brighton themselves in 2019 when losing 5-0 at home to Bournemouth.
Image: Roberto De Zerbi consoles Solly March after he missed the crucial penalty for Brighton on Sunday
Forest have only lost two of their last 12 games at home – to Newcastle and recently Manchester United, while De Zerbi’s boys have only kept one clean sheet under his watch on the road in the Premier League in 12 matches and in that encounter Bournemouth created an expected goals tally of 1.74. One goal for Forest might just be enough for a precious point – or even victory. At 5/1 with Sky Bet they are worth a swing.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0
Chelsea vs Brentford, Wednesday 7.45pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
This is a classic case of if this was just Team A vs Team B based on recent form, underlying data and league positions then Brentford would not be 4/1 with Sky Bet for three points. You could argue they’d be closer to 2/1 – over an eight per cent difference. The name of Chelsea is holding the price of a home win which looks ludicrously short at 4/6 with Sky Bet. But this isn’t the Chelsea we know. This is a club in transition and doing a very bad job of it.
It’s now just four wins in their last 22 Premier League games and they’ve scored just 22 goals in 25 league games since Thomas Tuchel was sacked – only three teams have scored fewer. Meanwhile, the man in the dugout has lost 15 of his last 18 games as a manager. Frank Lampard’s stock has never been lower.
Image: Frank Lampard has won one of his last 18 matches as a manager
Can he be trusted to have found a solution with his unbalanced squad full of central midfielders and goal-shy wide plays? I’ll need some convincing.
It’s simple, but backing Brentford, who have won at Man City and drawn at Arsenal this season, on the double chance market – to win or draw at 6/5 with Sky Bet – looks the obvious but potentially profitable shout.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
West Ham vs Liverpool, Wednesday 7.45pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
One result shouldn’t mask longer-term problems. That’s a lesson we’ve learnt from Liverpool this season. They made me look a fool against Leeds – not hard many will argue – when I was happy to take them on at odds-on and they rammed a 6-1 win down my throat.
However, I saw little to be swayed that Jurgen Klopp has this Liverpool side back to their best in the 3-2 win over Nottingham Forest. Yes, they got over the line, but to create just 0.37 worth of expected goals from open play and to concede twice to a Forest outfit that had scored just five away goals all season was alarming.
Well, it’s time to be a fool again. I’m against Liverpool here again at 17/20 with Sky Bet.
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They remain vulnerable having lost 12 of 23 away games in all competitions this season – and their record at teams lower than them in the current table is still worth raising. In nine games, they’ve won once and have failed to score in six of those matches, including defeats at Wolves, Nottingham Forest, Bournemouth and Brentford.
West Ham’s current buoyant mood, potency on the counter-attack and physicality at set-pieces makes them a dangerous opponent. I’m all over following the Hammers to make this a difficult evening for Klopp’s men. My main play is a rather safety-first one by taking West Ham double chance – to win or draw – at 11/10, but both teams to score and West Ham to win 7/2 certainly is worth serious consideration.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Manchester City vs Arsenal, Wednesday 8pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
The match result markets do look on point to me, with Arsenal big outsiders at 9/2 with Sky Bet to leave Manchester with three points, while City are 8/15. For those that do still believe an Arsenal title win remains on the cards, I’d advise taking the 9/2 for an away win in this one rather than the 3/1 on them in the Premier League title market. It’s a bigger price and all logic points towards this match being must-win for their title hopes. Whether City will give them any sort of sniff is debatable.
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I’m concentrating on full-backs, fouls and cards for my angles for the monster match. Whoever marks Bukayo Saka is always liable to be exposed in one-on-ones. In Saka’s last 13 starts, the opposition left-back has made 18 fouls and picked up five yellow cards. That healthy strike-rate hasn’t been noticed by the markets if – as the early team news suggests – Aymeric Laporte plays down that side in the absence of Nathan Ake. Laporte is 8/11 for one or more fouls, 7/2 for two or more fouls and 100/30 to be carded. All look live runners to my eye.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1
Everton vs Newcastle, Thursday 7.45pm
Prediction to follow…
SCORE PREDICTION: xx
Southampton vs Bournemouth, Thursday 7.45pm
Prediction to follow…
SCORE PREDICTION: xx
Tottenham vs Manchester United, Thursday 8.15pm
Prediction to follow…
SCORE PREDICTION: xx
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