Premier League Predictions: Another Chelsea 0-0 Liverpool? Aston Villa to win again at Leicester

Will managerial changes at Chelsea and Leicester spark them into life? Our tipster Jones Knows doesn’t think so as he previews the midweek fixtures.

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Bournemouth vs Brighton, Tuesday 7.45pm

The 11/2 with Sky Bet for Brighton to finish in the top-four has been fluttering its eyes at me.

Roberto De Zerbi’s side just might be the third-best team in this Premier League when assessing their current numbers and style of play which suffocates teams just like Manchester City and Arsenal do. De Zerbi’s men are still to play Manchester United, Tottenham and Newcastle, all of which are six-pointers and games that this Brighton team are fully capable of winning. If they ruffle feathers there, that 11/2 will be a thing of the past. They are being priced-up like a top-four contender for this trip with 1/2 the odds on offer from Sky Bet. That’s a price you’d usually associate with a Man City or an Arsenal. The markets are so strong on this De Zerbi revolution.

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I can let that short price slide.

A way to boost the price on an away win here is to add Kaoru Mitoma into the mix to score which gets us to 5/2 with Sky Bet. The Japanese hotshot netted the winner when the teams met at the Amex earlier this season, one of seven goals he has scored in his last 13 Premier League appearances. His pace, trickery and intelligence makes his duel with 31-year-old Bournemouth full-back Adam Smith an area where Brighton can find lots of joy.

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SCORE PREDICTION: 1-3

Any winners for Jones Knows at the weekend?

Nayef Aguerd to score first at 28/1
Jack Harrison 1+ shots on target at 5/2
Aston Villa to beat Chelsea at 9/2
Newcastle to beat Man Utd at 13/10
Wins for Man City, Arsenal, West Ham & draw in Forest vs Wolves

Leeds vs Nottingham Forest, Tuesday 7.45pm

Jack Harrison duly delivered a shot on target in the 4-1 defeat at Arsenal – a 5/2 winner for those that followed. He is a key man under the new boss Javi Gracia in the way Leeds shape their attacks and he’ll be seeing plenty of opportunities against poor travellers Forest, who just don’t play with the same personality or confidence as they do at the City Ground. Just four goals on the road this season is a truly woeful return with only one of those goals coming before the 81st minute in a match.

Harrison has scored two in his last three games – as many as he had in his previous 29 appearances – but the markets haven’t quite caught up with his influence.

Once again my maths make him a lot shorter than 10/11 with Sky Bet to have a shot on target and his 10/1 first goalscorer price with Sky Bet also has a chance of copping.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0

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Leicester vs Aston Villa, Tuesday 7.45pm

If it looks like an away win, smells like an away win and tastes like an away win, well, it’s probably an away win.

The 7/4 with Sky Bet on offer does jump off the page, so much so I had to check I hadn’t missed some important team news or the Premier League had instructed Villa to play with 10 men to even up the contest.

Perhaps the markets are expecting the dismissal of Brendan Rodgers to spark some oomph into a listless Leicester. I’d be surprised, though, if Rodgers was the problem at the club. Yes, he’s one-dimensional but from what I understand, players, especially attack-minded ones, enjoy his coaching and respond well to his man-management. Leicester’s issue ultimately rests with poor recruitment, especially in key central areas in midfield and defence.

They have lost five of their last seven home games and only Southampton (10) have won fewer home points in Premier League home matches this season.

Image: Ollie Watkins is mobbed by his team-mates after opening the scoring for Aston Villa at Chelsea

Meanwhile, Villa have now taken 29 points from 15 Premier League games under Unai Emery, winning five of their seven away games with the only defeat coming at Manchester City. He has found the perfect balance and has got players believing in his methods – that’s impressive management in such a short space of time. Another three points is there for the taking on a night that may get rather ugly at the King Power.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2

Chelsea vs Liverpool, Tuesday 8pm, live on Sky Sports

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Chelsea
Liverpool

Tuesday 4th April 7:00pm Kick off 8:00pm

The prestige of this fixture is certainly being factored into the goal expectancy which looks far too high. Backing under 2.5 goals at Evens with Sky Bet makes strong appeal.

These two clubs are Chelsea and Liverpool but not as we know them. Between them, these two have scored 51 goals fewer and won 14 games fewer than at this stage of last season.

Neither team is flowing or looking sharp in forward areas, and with no big prizes to play for this game has all the chances of drifting. That drift is a key criteria for anticipating when a game is likely to be low-scoring.

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Liverpool, usually so relentless with their chance creation statistics, have scored just 14 goals in their 14 away games this season, failing to score in six of those, including all five away games against teams 12th or lower in the table. Madness.

And Chelsea’s problems in front of goal are well documented, only scoring nine goals in their last 12 Premier League games.

Could we see a fourth 0-0 draw in a row between these two? It’s a tempting 11/1 with Sky Bet.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-0

Manchester United vs Brentford, Wednesday 8pm

Bravery will be required if backing Manchester United at odds-on here following their performance at St James’ Park. Cracks are starting to appear, especially without the influence of Casemiro, who remains suspended.

For a team that were being talked about as a potential outside shot for the title a few weeks back, United’s record at defending set-pieces is rather eye opening. They have shipped 120 shots from such situations this season – only Bournemouth (137) have conceded more. And in their last seven Premier League games, an opposition centre-back has managed to register a shot on United’s goal. You can rest assured this area of weakness will have been noticed by set-piece kings Brentford, whose record from such situations in terms of goals scored (12) is only bettered by Tottenham (13) this season.

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Ethan Pinnock is usually the first point of contact from Brentford’s long throws and deliveries into the box and he’s been turning his healthy touches in the box ratio into shots and goals of late. He has scored twice in the last five games and somehow failed to score from a chance that was recorded as 0.72 worth of an expected goal vs Everton. The 11/8 with Sky Bet for him to have at least one shot is dripping with potential, as is the 66/1 first goalscorer price.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1

Image: Ethan Pinnock celebrates with his team-mates after restoring Brentford's lead at Brighton

West Ham vs Newcastle, Wednesday 8pm, live on Sky Sports

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West Ham United
Southampton

Sunday 2nd April 1:00pm

Joe Willock is just how I like my bacon: streaky.

When he’s got the taste of goals, he is a player to follow as identified by his run of scoring in seven consecutive matches during his loan spell with Newcastle in the 21/22 campaign. There have been two other occasions of him scoring back-to-back for the Toon, the latest of which came in November last year when finding the net against Southampton and Chelsea.

Eddie Howe utilises Willock to maximum potential by allowing him the freedom to get into dangerous positions in the box to convert from the ample amount of quality wide play that comes in from the likes of Kieran Trippier. His goal against Manchester United at the weekend was a case in point. That level of impact can be seen through his touches in the opposition box data – 3.7-per-90 over the last three seasons against a backdrop of a 1.7 shots per-90.

In his last three matches, he has posted 11 shots and I’d be expecting him to trouble West Ham – a team he’s flourished against before, scoring twice and having a goal disallowed (in the 1-1 draw earlier this season) from just 177 minutes on the pitch.