Cheltenham Festival tips: Jones Knows thinks Tahmuras can reign Supreme on day one

After a weekend of 33/1 and 8/1 winners, Sky Sports tipster Jones Knows is off to the races and reveals his staking plan for day one of Cheltenham.

When the tapes go up, we roar.

Forget the trainer, forget the Champion Bumper win, let’s talk about facts. You are being asked to take 2/1 with Sky Bet on favourite Facile Vega in the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (1:30) – a horse that was almost pulled up last time in a key trial. Yes, there were excuses from the stable and switching to a more patient ride around this track may help but there are too many imponderables to be putting faith in such a short price.

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TAHMURAS (1pt EW at 10/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!) is being priced up as if he doesn’t carry the class or running style to win a Supreme as he’s seen as a long-term chasing prospect but in a renewal with muddled form-lines and many unanswered questions, he could spring a shock.

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As trainer Paul Nicholls has referenced, he’s very much in the model of Al Ferof and Noland – both of whom won the race for the yard. Nicholls doesn’t usually send horses to the Festival for a jolly, especially when it comes to Grade One novice hurdles where his runners pull in a healthy 21 per cent win and place strike rate. He can go close.

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Sit back and enjoy the Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (3.30) – there is no need to get financially invested. Constitution Hill is an animal – and could be the best we’ve ever seen. Let’s hope State Man can get him off the bridle so we can measure just how ferocious this beast is.

The Sporting Life Arkle Chase (2.10) is another no-bet contest but should be another cracker with Jonbon and El Fabiolo splitting opinion and the market right down the middle.

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It’s hard to knock the likes of Corach Rambler, Into Overdrive and Nassalam at the head of the Ultima Handicap Chase (2.50) so my motivation to play in this race isn’t as pumped as usual levels.

However, with Sky Bet paying eight places there is enough in our favour to have a go with each-way stakes in mind.

REMASTERED (1pt EW with 16/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!) has been ignored by the market after his latest effort where pulling up when fancied to go well in a Pertemps qualifier at Sandown over hurdles. I’m always happy to forgive a horse one bad run, especially when it comes to David Pipe runners.

On the last 92 occasions where a horse of his that went off 5/1 or shorter to win a handicap pulled up, if you had backed that horse on their next start you would have backed 14 winners to a profit of £26 to level stakes. And, of those 92 runners, 43 finished in the first four meaning the place strike rate, give or take for the amount of runners for place terms, is a very healthy 47 per cent.

That gives me enough confidence in the stable, who have had three winners of this race and another (Great Endeavour) that fell when going close, to get this horse back to the level that saw him run a close second in the Coral Gold Cup before thrashing a competitive field at Kempton at Christmas.

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The public money for old favourites can skew a market at the Cheltenham Festival which does open up betting opportunities at fancy prices. This is the case in the Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle (4.10) where Honeysuckle – a three-time Festival winner – takes up a fair chunk of the market but her two runs this season have shown she is a fading force. And there is a legitimate argument to concur that this race is deeper and stronger than the Champion Hurdle she won last season.

Marie’s Rock is the most likely winner but this market is shaping up to have a swing at one from an each-way perspective with Sky Bet paying four places and SHEWEARSITWELL (1pt EW at 25/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!) has been overlooked in the market. Willie Mullins’ mare has taken time to reach this level but comes here on the back of two game performances in a handicap at Punchestown and when thrashing Queens Brook at Leopardstown. She’s entering the unknown of whether she’ll handle Cheltenham but her strong staying style is a positive in that regard.

From what we’ve seen in the Juvenile hurdling scene this season, the Irish hold the key so I’m fully expecting the British runners to be left toiling in the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (4.50). The key trial for this division over recent years has been the race won by Sir Allen at Naas with three of the last four winners of Boodles taking that event in before landing this handicap.

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Patrick Mullins thinks Facile Vega could have the edge over Marine Nationale in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

However, this year’s renewal at Naas, although attracting a star cast, was a slowly run affair where it was those beaten in behind rather than Sir Allen that were the ones to take out. I’ll be splitting my each-way stakes on BYKER (1pt EW at 7/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!) and METAMORPHEUS (1pt EW at 20/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!).

Byker finished third at Naas under less than firm riding when his chance was lost so there will be huge improvement to come whilst Metamorpheus – trained by Paul Nolan, who won this in 2005 and saddled the fourth last season with HMS Seahorse – is a strong travelling sort who will relish this fast-run test. Expect him to be played fast and late.

Staking plan:

1.30 – 1pt EW on TAHMURAS (10/1 with Sky Bet)

2.50 – 1pt EW on REMASTERED (16/1 with Sky Bet)

4.10 – 1pt EW on SHEWEARSITWELL (25/1 with Sky Bet)

4.50 – 1pt EW on BYKER (7/1 with Sky Bet) & METAMORPHUES (20/1 with Sky Bet)

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