Sky Sports tipster Jones Knows is off to the races and reveals his staking plan for day three of Cheltenham with six bets on his radar.
The Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle (3.30) is being billed as a bit of a puzzle to solve but there is a chance people are overcomplicating things. The key trial for the race – the Cleeve Hurdle – was won by GOLD TWEET (1pt EW at 11/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!) in impressive fashion where he left two strong stayers at the trip in Paisely Park and Drashel Drasher in his wake. That form hasn’t been given the respect it deserves, probably on the basis that the horse is a French raider.
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It bodes well that 14 of the last 17 winners of the Cleeve Hurdle have gone onto finish in the first four when tackling the Stayers Hurdle with five of those winning – it’s a key pointer. At the advertised odds, Gold Tweet has the form in the book to be in the mix.
I’ll be quite surprised if Mighty Potter doesn’t turn out to be the good thing in the Turners Novices’ Chase (1.30) but he’s no betting proposition at the advertised odds after he didn’t exactly have an enjoyable Cheltenham experience in the Supreme last year. That potential mental scarring is enough to put me off getting involved. Similar comments apply to Shiskin in the Ryanair Chase (2.50). Yes, he’s the most likely winner but his complete blowout at the track last season does make him hard to trust. Try as I might, I couldn’t find an each-way angle against him in a very poor looking race.
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It’s easy to get sucked in by a sexy, unexposed, horse in the Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle (2.10) but I prefer to back one with experience on the back of a run which suggests that horse is ready to run for his life.
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With eight places on offer from Sky Bet, I’m going to back three each-way that fit that mould. ITCHY FEET (1pt EW at 25/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!) was once third in a Supreme Novices Hurdle behind Klassical Dream and has been revitalised switching back to hurdles, winning at Huntingdon before running huge into the teeth of a headwind at Haydock in a Grade Two before getting collared on the line.
COLTOR (1pt EW at 22/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!), trained by Roger Fell, who is associated with training top-class sprinters on the flat, looks to have found the key with this strong stayer that finished fifth in the Boodles Fred Winter in 2021.
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This race looks perfect for him where he’ll be finishing with a rattle whilst other are wilting. The same theory applies to the ever-so-game GLIMPSE OF GALA (1pt EW at 25/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!). In the last four years, mares have won four of the handicap hurdles at the Cheltenham Festival from just 27 runners with seven others hitting the frame, so a horse with this gutsy profile who outgunned the talented Ashtown Lad at Warwick last time out needs huge respect at big odds.
The Plate Handicap Chase (4.10) is a fantastic and high-class renewal with a field full of chasers that could be borderline Grade One performers next season. So Scottish, absolutely primed for this one, and Haut En Couleurs, trained by Willie Mullins and was looking a winner of a Grade Two before crashing out at the last earlier this season, are loaded with talent but have yet to show their hand at Cheltenham.
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That makes them hard to trust at short prices, plus, Mullins is 0-35 at the Festival in handicap chases. I’ll be investing in the tried and tested Cheltenham form from earlier this season that has stood up well in recent years in this race with Siruh Du Lac and Simply The Betts landing the spoils after winning at Cheltenham earlier that season.
That’s why I’m happy to split stakes – with Sky Bet paying seven places – between IL RIDOTO (1pt EW at 17/2 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!), MIDNIGHT RIVER (1pt EW at 9/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!) and FUGITIF (1pt EW at 12/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!) – all of whom have fantastic form from the track this season and still look capable of winning of their current mark.
P+L after day two: -10.5
Staking plan:
2.10 – 1pt EW on ITCHY FEET (25/1 with Sky Bet) & COLTOR (22/1 with Sky Bet)
3.30 – 1pt EW on GOLD TWEET (11/1 with Sky Bet)
4.10 – 1pt EW on IL RIDOTO (17/2 with Sky Bet), MIDNIGHT RIVER (9/1 with Sky Bet) & FUGITIF (12/1 with Sky Bet)
Sourse: skysports.com
