© EPA/ALEXANDER KAZAKOV/SPUTNIK/KREMLIN POOL The newspaper gave the reasons why Putin decided to resort to escalation.
As President Donald Trump’s efforts to broker peace in Ukraine falter, Russia is taking a sharp step toward escalation. On Sunday morning, September 7, it launched its largest airstrike of the war, launching more than 800 drones and missiles at Ukrainian cities. The strike on Kyiv included an attack on the Ukrainian government building for the first time.
Russia's attack on the building where Ukraine's Cabinet of Ministers meets has a long history. In June 2023, then-Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu warned that Ukrainian Himars and Storm Shadow missiles strikes on Crimea would lead to Russian attacks on “decision-making centers” in Kyiv. In Ukraine, Shoigu's statement was taken as a direct hint at possible strikes on the presidential administration and intelligence headquarters, notes Samuel Ramani, a columnist for The Telegraph.
In November 2024, Putin vowed to use Russian Oreshnik missiles against decision-making centers in Ukraine. Despite these ominous warnings, Russia refrained from escalating the conflict on such a scale. This restraint convinced many Western analysts that Putin was making empty threats. Ultimately, Russia did not follow through on its threats to intercept Western arms shipments to Ukraine and repeatedly used nuclear bluffs as a tactic of intimidation.
While this assumption was logical, the September 7 attack showed it to be overly optimistic and erroneous. There are three reasons why Russia chose to escalate in this way and at this time.
“First, Putin is responding to pressure from ultranationalists who advocate for the continuation of the war in his entourage. Since Ukraine attacked the Kerch Bridge in Crimea in October 2022, hardliners have consistently called for strikes on decision-making centers in Ukraine. As progress on the battlefield slows and the number of casualties rises, these calls have become increasingly intense,” Ramani writes.
Second, Putin interprets Trump’s reluctance to punish Russia for prolonging the war as a sign of weakness and is testing how far he can go. When the threat of severe sanctions and secondary tariffs became real, he bought time by promising peace steps in Alaska. The fact that Trump took these promises seriously emboldened Putin to act even more decisively against the West.
On August 21, two Russian cruise missiles hit the Flex Ltd electronics factory in Mukachevo. Despite it being a direct attack on an American company and a rare strike on the previously safe region of Transcarpathia, Trump did not respond.
This indecision convinced Russia to strike the British Council and EU buildings in Kyiv on August 28, as well as to use GPS jamming against the plane of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. When these provocations received only rhetorical responses, Russia upped the ante even further by striking the Ukrainian government building.
Third, Putin used the attack to deter Ukraine from further drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure. Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refining terminals have already disrupted at least 17% of the country’s capacity, or 1.1 million barrels of oil per day.
With the G7 ceiling price for Russian oil having fallen to $45 a barrel, these attacks are increasing financial pressure on Russia’s energy giants. And with the war costing between $500 million and $1 billion a day, Putin is eager to force Ukraine to scale back its drone strikes.
“If Trump continues to give Russia two-week reprieves and fails to follow through on his ultimatums, strikes on Ukrainian government facilities and Western diplomatic institutions could become more frequent. British and European targets are particularly vulnerable, as the Kremlin seeks to deter Europe from participating in post-war peacekeeping operations in Ukraine. While nuclear risks from Russia have diminished somewhat, the threat of accidental conflict with NATO remains high,” the columnist believes.
As Putin’s war escalates, Western officials should not make concessions. Instead, they should choose a strategy of peace through strength. Trump’s promise to impose a second round of sanctions on Russia is an important step in this direction.
Bloomberg previously learned when Trump will start taking a tough stance on Putin. The agency believes that this will probably never happen. After all, since his inauguration, Trump has given Putin almost everything he wanted in Ukraine.
