The Democrats intend to win back the house this year. Just ask someone. Even one of the best allies of Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell says so.
“Our donors often say that we must do everything possible to keep the Senate, because there is a chance that we can keep the house,” Steven law, who leads a super PAC, called the Senate leadership Fund, told the Washington post this week.
The conventional wisdom, solidifying the Democrats — thanks to an unpopular President Donald trump, excited Democratic base, opportunities for pickups, and the historic rule that the voters punished the party in the White house will win 20 or so seats they need to flip the house and possibly even the Senate. It was a not so subtle subtext of the statement of the speaker of the house Paul Ryan that he will leave in the next Congress.
Of course, it’s not in the bag: a lot can happen between now and November, no matter what the Senate Democrats are in a very disadvantageous position that fraud can curb the overall vote by a lot, that is a lot of R+. Democrats will also remind you that the Republicans are going to dramatically overspend them.
Democrats are nothing if not pessimists, though, and they can come up with many reasons to be worried about this fall. I called the democratic operatives with experience in the evaluation of the national campaign landscape of Congress. I would like to know: what keeps you up at night?
Many, it turns out.
Fear 1: people decide the economy is good enough
Many economic indicators are strong. The unemployment rate is low (4.1 percent), wages increase (at the fastest pace since 2009), and consumer confidence is high (the highest since 2000). Structural problems in our economy, namely, the income inequality still exists, and not every part of the country enjoys equitable growth. But things are mostly very good.
While trump is widely unpopular: he is 13 percentage points underwater, at the RealClearPolitics average. As Nate Cohn wrote in the new York times, President is a historic mansion: we almost never seen a President so unpopular when the economy is so strong.
So this is sort of economy Chekhov for democratic strategists. They knew about this inconsistency for a while. What if votes Wake up with her, too?
“Are you concerned that the economy continues to do well, and there are enough voices who say, ‘You know, I’m fine. Tweet President trump is annoying, but it really didn’t bother me that the Republican party does not hide that he is accountable,” the only Democratic operative working on house races this year said. “This is my biggest fear: You are unable to convince enough people that you need a democratic Congress to keep him in check.”
That operative thought about the historical regions of the Republic — a Texas suburb, conservative enclaves in the Californian suburb, where the repulsion trump needs to give Democrats the opportunity. Voters who have a pretty stable life, but to find the President, his style, and maybe some of his nationalist tendencies unattractive.
Midterm electorate, as a rule, older, whiter, and more likely to vote Republican. The concern of many democratic strategists is that those voters, look around, decide what they do well, and their taxes have been reduced at least a little bit, and eventually back home to the Republicans. Trump isn’t enough to stop them to check a box on election day.
As the political scientist James Campbell once said: “the campaign to remind the Democrats why they’re not Democrats, not Republicans, and remind Republicans why they are Republicans, not Democrats.”
And Commerce and other outside groups, the U.S. chamber are going to work everything possible to try to rehabilitate the GOP tax bill with voters using TV advertising.
“When his approval ratings climbed a couple of points, it is because the Republicans would be embarrassed to be Republicans,” the employee said.
Fear 2: something goes wrong with the candidates
Let’s get one thing clear: bad candidates can win in the right circumstances.
“In 2006 and 2008, and on the Republican side in 2010, a lot of people have Favorites that didn’t run the best campaigns and who beat good opponents from the opposite party,” one democratic strategist said. “If the wave is big enough, it really doesn’t matter.”
However, in my conversations, I took on some level the fear that democratic candidates in Congress could hurt their own chances. Generally speaking, the most convenient place for the opposing parties candidate, well, in opposition: trump will fail you, and I will hold him accountable. Anything that changes that dynamic is the risk.
There was some internal discussion in my conversations about what this danger is.
Some strategists worried about the appointment of overly progressive candidates in more moderate suburban districts where a fiscal conservative voters could be scared of a candidate that supported, say, medicare-for-all.
“If you’re going to win in these peri-urban areas of swing, show them you’re not another tax-and-spend Democrat,” argued one strategist with the Outlook. “If you are in battle, You don’t have to make a point. You should try to win elections.”
But others were more dismissive of these problems. They returned to the electoral environment is necessarily defined more trumps than granular policy positions of candidates from the Democratic party.
However, some of these fighters was another parallel question: record number of first-time candidates raises the risk of unforced errors — blooper, unvetted skeleton in the closet that you are new and think that it’s about them, not the Republicans. In the era movement #Metoo allegations of past misconduct is harder to conceal.
“We’re just a bunch of first time candidates. That brings unknown risk,” said the operative with this problem. “Running for office is one of the most exhausting experiences you ever go through. None of them probably prepared for what’s about to come”.
But it also caused the rejection of the other strategists. The trump proved being a political novice can be an asset when the electorate disillusioned with politics.
The exact nature and amount of risk a candidate on the debate. If the wave is big enough, it doesn’t matter. But when you spend your nights tossing and turning, and wondering what could go wrong, you’ll have to worry about one of your candidates making an unnecessary mess.
Fear 3: what is the Law of God introduces an unknown variable in a campaign
It is the most uncomfortable variable election for discussion and you can plan at least. You can try to craft a political message that keeps voters, disgruntled trump. You can do your best to check out your candidates and prepare them for the routine of the campaign.
But there are some things you just can’t anticipate a terrorist attack, an international crisis, natural disaster or war.
Difficult start to calculate what the consequences of the elections will be in such large and unpredictable events. Some of the operatives just shrugged their shoulders when this moment came. What can you do? Black Swan events is always a gamble and rarely a valid factor in politics.
But few were willing at least to talk through the electoral consequences. Take military intervention: some Democrats argue that in fact there is reason to think that could hurt the Republicans to help. Trump confrontation with North Korea was cocky. The same will probably prove true for any military adventures the President decided to spend the next few months.
“Trump is so inconsistent that if America had not invaded, it would be polarizing,” one strategist said. “Trump is no doubt. You would have so many detractors as supporters.”
But on the other hand, there is the old truth that trump even the face of the crisis unprocessed during his presidency (well, except for a few hurricanes and widely criticized response to the crisis in Puerto Rico). Although this is, of course, could be that it failed and consequently strengthen the perception that made him so unpopular to begin with, that there was at least a possibility that he will handle it well and give Americans faith in their leadership.
As VOX Andrew Prokop wrote during the campaign of 2016, there is some scientific evidence that the stronger party receives a selective advantage when the unthinkable happens:
“Trump is not dealt with a real crisis. If a legal crisis occurs between now and November, as trump handle it can shape how people see him and his presidency,” said another democratic operative. “If it does well, it’s the kind of thing that can cause people to normalize his presidency.”
Not to lose sight of the basics. The unpopularity trump and medium-term factor should be the wind at the backs of Democrats. Fraud and money disadvantage will probably make the lift a little harder.
But if you are looking for x-factor in the midterm elections in 2018, is what’s on the minds of the people whose job it is to worry.
Sourse: vox.com
