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For a number of years, voters were under the impression that, irrespective of all the turmoil and dispute surrounding President Donald Trump, he would still perform commendably concerning the economy.
That is no longer the case.
This month, Trump’s ratings regarding economic approval plunged to unprecedented nadirs across both his presidential terms, as indicated by polls conducted by both CNBC and Quinnipiac University. CNBC, having surveyed adults, determined his net approval rating concerning the economy stood at minus 13 points. Quinnipiac, surveying registered voters, recorded it at minus 19 points.
Particularly, a specific issue is causing the most discontent among voters: the rise in inflation and elevated prices.
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A recent poll conducted by the Economist and YouGov examined Trump’s approval concerning numerous issues and revealed that, despite his standing negatively on several matters, his net approval regarding “inflation/prices” was the absolute worst: a significant minus 34 points. (Thirty percent of adults endorsed his management of inflation/prices, whereas 64 percent disapproved.)
As a matter of fact, in spite of securing triumph in the 2024 election predominantly owing to voters’ displeasure with the elevated inflation rates experienced during President Joe Biden’s tenure, a central tangible consequence of Trump’s economic strategy involves augmenting consumer prices through imposing tariffs on imports originating from foreign nations.
Although Trump has occasionally recognized that inflation played a crucial role in his victory, there have been instances — notably in off-the-cuff remarks following his inaugural address — where he has voiced some uncertainty concerning its true significance. “They all indicated that inflation was the foremost concern. I do not concur,” Trump stated at that juncture, adding that he believed immigration held greater importance. Since then, he has governed in accordance with this perspective.
On occasion, Trump demonstrates an interest in endeavoring to diminish prices within a specific sector. In a recent TruthSocial post defending his intention to import a greater quantity of beef from Argentina, he asserted that US ranchers “must reduce their prices, as the consumer holds a very substantial position in my considerations, as well!”
Nevertheless, the overarching perspective suggests that, considering his implementation of tariffs, alongside his endeavors to impel the Federal Reserve into diminishing interest rates, and his extensive campaign to deport unauthorized immigrant laborers, Trump’s agenda seemingly centers not on curtailing prices, but on escalating them.
Thus, it comes as no shock that voters, becoming weary of such elevated prices, are progressively placing the onus on Trump. In point of fact, the economic landscape in many respects bears a striking resemblance to its state during Joe Biden’s presidency — the very economy that Trump denounced as disastrous while engaged in campaigning.
An intriguing turnaround
This year, Trump’s polling data regarding the economy signifies a reversal of a longstanding asset for him.
Throughout his initial term, voters — including numerous voters who generally disapproved of Trump — persisted in the conviction that he was executing a commendable job concerning the economy.
Pew Research’s polling exhibited that, during Trump’s first term (prior to the pandemic), substantially more than half of the populace considered the economy to be in favorable or outstanding condition. This encompassed the overwhelming majority of Republicans, alongside numerous Democrats. Indeed, numerous individuals posited that the robustness of the economy constituted the principal determinant in preventing Trump’s support from entirely collapsing.
Currently, however, the inverse holds true: Trump’s aggregate approval rating typically surpasses his abysmal rating concerning the economy. For instance, the RealClearPolitics poll averages demonstrate Trump’s net approval overall at negative 7 points, while his approval regarding the economy registers at negative 13.4
Pew’s polling currently reveals that a mere 26 percent of the populace deems the economy to be in satisfactory or superb condition. In contrast to Trump’s initial term, even numerous Republicans harbor doubts regarding the economy’s performance.
The crux of the matter resides in the reality that the erosion of Trump’s standing concerning the economy did not transpire as the pivotal element in undermining him politically. Opinion pollsters diverge concerning the precise severity of his approval ratings; however, most continue to indicate that he currently garners greater favor among the public in contrast to his standing at a comparable juncture during his initial term. (The Economist/YouGov poll recently indicated him reaching an all-time nadir, although, presently, it stands as an anomaly.)
This year’s Trump economy strongly resembles the Biden economy
Pew’s conclusion that merely 26 percent of the public assesses the economy as either outstanding or good appears dire for Trump. Nevertheless, this discovery has remained relatively constant over the preceding several years; evaluations of the economy have remained relatively stagnant since 2023.
Currently, upon closer inspection, a transformation has occurred among committed partisans — an increase in Democrats and a decrease in Republicans characterizing the economy as favorable during Biden’s tenure, subsequently exchanging positions — yet the aggregate outcome negates itself.
Consequently, the central narrative might genuinely pertain to the limited degree of divergence between Trump’s economy and that of his predecessor.
Notwithstanding Trump’s pledges to institute alterations, alongside all the turbulence and vehemence exhibited throughout his trade conflict, the Trump economy maintains substantial congruity across numerous pivotal dimensions with the economy of 2024.
The positive aspects encompass GDP expansion, escalating stock market indices, and a reasonably diminished unemployment rate. During the past year, Biden’s advocates emphasized these factors to contend that the economy was, in reality, performing effectively; currently, it is Trump’s supporters undertaking that very action. (Critics posit that the stock surge might represent an AI bubble, and that apprehensions pertaining to the job market are intensifying.)
The unfavorable aspects — and the principal manners through which the economy of the 2020s diverges from the economy prevalent during Trump’s initial term — entail persistent elevated prices and heightened interest rates.
Thus, it genuinely occasions no astonishment that voters harbor analogous sentiments concerning this economy as they do concerning Biden’s economy; the fundamental aspects, for the moment, continue to exhibit substantial parallelism.
Yet, Trump secured election partially on account of voters’ aversion towards Biden’s economy, accompanied by aspirations that Trump might reinstate conditions to their prior state. However, translating that into reality proves considerably more arduous than articulation — and he is not genuinely committing himself to that pursuit.
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Source: vox.com
