The dynamic of US politics has shifted once more.
Mere months following President Donald Trump and Republican triumphs on a national level, the Democratic rebound has surfaced in Tuesday’s voting events.
Democrats secured victory in both gubernatorial contests on the ballot, located in Virginia and New Jersey — which was projected. However, their margin of victory was considerable. While votes are still being tallied, at the point of this article, Mikie Sherrill was leading in New Jersey by a margin of 13 percentage points, while Abigail Spanberger was ahead in Virginia by 14.
Such an outcome would signify a notable partisan change — in both states — compared to the prior year, when Kamala Harris carried both by approximately 6 percentage points. This would also indicate that the political climate has undergone a significant transformation since 2021, when Republican Glenn Youngkin prevailed in Virginia’s gubernatorial race by 2 percentage points, and Democrat Phil Murphy secured reelection in New Jersey by a mere 3.
In Virginia, Democrats also achieved success in lower-ballot races, augmenting their majority in the House of Delegates from 51 seats to a minimum of 60. This will likely enable them to manipulate the state’s congressional map through gerrymandering, an action that proponents assert is essential to counterbalance Republican gerrymandering in other states this year.
Even the Democratic nominee for Virginia attorney general, Jay Jones — shadowed by controversy due to the disclosure of text messages in which he depicted the hypothetical deaths of a political opponent’s offspring — emerged victorious, albeit by a significantly smaller margin than Spanberger.
The favorable developments for Democrats persisted in less publicized elections elsewhere. In Pennsylvania, three Democratic supreme court justices handily won their “retention elections,” ensuring their continued service on the court for an additional 10 years. In Georgia, two Democrats prevailed in statewide special elections for the Public Service Commission — contests which, according to warnings from Georgia Republicans, might serve as a gauge for the 2026 midterm elections.
Thus, what implications does this Democratic surge hold for the midterms?
Generally, it is advisable to exercise caution when interpreting the significance of these off-year elections in relation to the anticipated course of next year’s midterms. After all, there remains a full year between the present and that time, during which circumstances are subject to change. Furthermore, the states featuring prominent elections today are not indicative of the nation at large.
However, the outcomes of Tuesday’s voting exhibited a remarkable uniformity across states, aligning with a singular plausible explanation: widespread discontent with Trump, leading to votes for the opposing party.
One aspect of the narrative involves the strong turnout from the Democratic base. However, another facet is the movement of swing voters.
For instance: in 2021, the Democratic gubernatorial candidate won upscale Loudoun County, Virginia, by merely 11 points. In 2025, Spanberger’s victory in the same county reached approximately 29 points.
In their targeting of swing voters, Sherrill and Spanberger, akin to the victorious New York City mayoral contender Zohran Mamdani, have consistently emphasized a unified message: their governance will maintain a sharp concentration on affordability.
Some Republicans, such as New Jersey gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli, sought to leverage affordability for their own benefit, placing the blame for inflated prices on the incumbent Democratic governor.
Nevertheless, this tactic proved ineffective — elevated prices and a steep cost of living, it would seem, persist as politically damaging factors for the president’s party. As I detailed in the prior week, Trump seemingly failed to recall the reasons behind his 2024 victory: he campaigned against President Joe Biden’s rising inflation rates, yet subsequently took minimal action to address the issue during his time in office, opting instead to pursue his favored tariff policies, which have, in fact, contributed to price increases in certain sectors.
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A year is an ample duration, and it is plausible that Republicans will exhibit enhanced effectiveness in motivating their base to participate in the national midterm elections, in contrast to their performance in this unconventional off-year election. (In recent times, Democrats have frequently achieved superior results in elections characterized by lower turnout and unusual timing. They appear to possess a greater proportion of voters who will consistently participate, irrespective of circumstances, whereas MAGA GOP turnout exhibits greater volatility.)
However, as it stands, Democrats possess substantial cause for contentment — and Republicans have compelling reasons to harbor significant apprehension as they approach the forthcoming year.
Source: vox.com
