While the dollar exchange rate in Ukraine has remained stable in recent weeks, the market has unexpectedly received a signal that changes the tone of the entire conversation about the currency and forecasts for the coming weeks. The tension observed earlier can put the currency market in a situation where any imbalance turns into a wave.
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This opinion was expressed to “FACTS” by Taras Lesovy, Director of the Department of Financial Markets and Investment Activities of Globus Bank . According to him, the key intrigue of this period lies not in the pressure itself, but in the fact that it is imposed on Ukraine's peak need for external financing.
And it is this combination that creates the greatest risks for the exchange rate, and the allocation of funds from partners becomes the number one factor for market stability. Insufficient financing of budget needs can quickly turn into a catalyst for the weakening of the hryvnia, even with an adequate policy of the NBU. At the same time, the National Bank is not a passive observer. Its managed flexibility regime has already become a tool that works better than skeptics expected, thanks to competent adjustment of the volume of interventions.
However, despite this protection, threats do not disappear anywhere. The external situation now resembles a complex multi-layered structure: war, the consequences of enemy attacks on infrastructure facilities, political decisions in the US and the EU, the geopolitical background, energy prices and seasonal growth in imports can reinforce each other. Therefore, the forecast for the near future remains tense. The market may react sharply, even if the formal prerequisites look stable.
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— November-December is a period of high attention. The market literally “absorbs” all factors that have one or another level of threat to the exchange rates. Currency stability now is, first of all, manual work and a deep understanding of existing trends. At the same time, “Black Friday” and preparations for New Year's shopping will force people to spend more actively on appliances, gifts and clothes, which automatically, but temporarily reduces interest in buying currency, — says the interlocutor of “FACTS” about the tension in the currency market.
At the same time, next week the dollar will continue to be within the range of UAH 41.8−42.2, the euro – UAH 48−49.5. No sharp jumps in the market are expected, and this adds peace to market participants.
Previously, “FACTS” reported on the expected dollar exchange rate for 2026−2027.
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