Despite the fact that pork and dairy products in Ukraine are already more expensive than in neighboring Poland, prices for “milk” continue to increase.
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This is what Georgy Kukhaleyshvili, an analyst at the Milk Producers Association, wrote in his report. According to him, as of August 25, the weighted average price of three types of milk was UAH 17.20/kg excluding VAT, which is UAH 1.20 more compared to the results of the previous monitoring a month earlier.
The expert cites the weak demand for whole milk products on the domestic market and the uncertainty of the prospects for the export of commodity products to the EU as the reasons for this phenomenon – these factors restrain the growth of purchase prices in Ukraine.
The Milk Producers Association also adds that the increase in prices for raw milk at the end of August is due to increased demand from cheese producers and confectionery enterprises that use dairy products in the production of sweets.
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At the same time, dairy processing enterprises mainly work on a warehouse basis, and further growth in purchase prices depends on the prospects for the export of exchange-traded goods to the EU after the European Commission abolished autonomous trade measures (ATMs) in June.
Regarding the prospects of the industry, experts are confident that a serious increase in purchase prices in September-October 2025, as was the case in 2024, is unlikely if the signing of a new agreement between Ukraine and the EU on increasing export quotas for domestic dairy products is delayed.
In addition, currently, exports of dairy products to the EU have been suspended, and supplies to the markets of post-Soviet countries have decreased due to logistical barriers resulting from the war and competition from Russian and Belarusian companies.
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A certain decrease in butter prices in the EU against the background of increased milk yields in Oceania, the USA and Latin America due to favorable weather conditions is not in favor of Ukrainian suppliers. The increase in the supply of raw milk in dairy exporting regions is putting pressure on world prices of exchange-traded goods.
Also, the growth of purchase prices is restrained by weak demand for whole milk products in the domestic market and an increase in the share of imported cheeses to 50%, which restrains the increase in the production of finished products by domestic cheesemakers. In early September, a certain increase in raw milk prices is likely in the lower part and in the middle of the price corridor, but changes in the upper price range are unlikely.
Of course, Ukrainians are interested in what will happen next, and here the analysts' forecast is more or less reassuring: a sharp jump in prices is not predicted in September-October, only a slight increase in the cheaper segment is possible, while no significant changes are expected in the upper price range.
At the same time, the increase, even by one hryvnia, is already forcing Ukrainian families to count every purchase, because milk is a daily necessity for many families.
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At the same time, cheese producers themselves are sounding the alarm: against the background of the decline in the price of cheese in the EU (minus 8% in August), their imports to Ukraine are growing, and store shelves are increasingly occupied by cheese products – a cheaper alternative that is rapidly gaining popularity among consumers. Due to the lower cost, it is cheese products that are currently demonstrating the most dynamic growth in sales. For many buyers, this product is becoming the only available option against the background of the constant increase in the price of “real” cheese.
Previously, “FACTS” wrote about the “strange behavior” of bread prices.
