The 2025 harvest period coincided with forecasts of a rise in bread prices, which predicted a price increase of up to 20%, or 55 hryvnias per loaf. Another forecast predicted a price increase of as much as 25%, but in reality the market situation remains quite unusual.
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As the former head of the Association of Farmers and Private Landowners, Ivan Tomych, reported in a comment to News. LIVE, the current harvest turned out to be lower than last year's. And this, in turn, will affect the cost of wheat and bread, so the latter will increase in price by approximately 25% annually.
According to the expert, the harvest in 2025 was about 52−54 million tons, which is lower than last year's figures, but a deficit should not be expected.
Yes, the harvest level has fallen due to the weather, the war, and the conditions in which farmers from frontline areas have to harvest grain. All this will lead to the fact that wheat will cost from 5,800 to 6,300 UAH per ton. Therefore, in particular, there will be an increase in the price of bread by about 25% in annual terms.
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It should be noted that in 2025, bread in Ukraine will generally become more expensive, but there are two trends. Thus, according to the Ministry of Finance portal:
- a loaf of sliced wheat bread weighing 650 grams rose from UAH 38.8 in December to UAH 43.9 in August;
- The same bread in May cost 49.5 UAH, and in early August — 48 UAH.
That is, over the last summer month, it fell in price by 8%, or 4 hryvnias per loaf.
Most likely, such price changes are associated with the grain harvest and increased supply on the market, just as high bread prices in the spring were associated with the depletion of 2024 stocks and a shortage of raw materials.
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Therefore, the possible price increase will not occur immediately, but as the grain on the domestic market decreases due to its export abroad. If prices really increase by 20−25%, a loaf of the same wheat bread will cost Ukrainians approximately 55 hryvnias.
Meanwhile, as “FACTS” previously wrote, Ukrainians are promised a pleasant surprise in September in the form of a decrease in gasoline prices.
