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Tetyana Yermolenko
Correspondent
Car price forecast until the end of 2025: what does the auto market expect?
The Ukrainian automotive market is heading into 2025 with numerous unknowns and novel difficulties. The Delo.ua team of reporters has scrutinized the primary elements influencing costs throughout the year and formulated projections for distinct market sectors.
Legal alterations: their impact on prices
A crucial determinant that notably swayed the car market in 2024 was an advancement within the realm of transport mobilization. The government secured the authority to confiscate “surplus” vehicles from private individuals for defense objectives. This verdict prompted a surge in the re-registration of vehicles to kin, comrades, or acquaintances.
These legislative modifications triggered an unforeseen surge in market operations. Nevertheless, the clandestine market also expanded, as a considerable fraction of dealings commenced transacting beyond authorized registers. This complicates the precise computation of car prices in the aftermarket owing to the absence of lucid data.
Automobiles: what to anticipate regarding prices as the year concludes
The automobile division persists as the most reactive to variations. Throughout 2024, the marketplace exhibited an average monthly volume of approximately 80,000 resales, yet a conspicuous downturn in engagement surfaced nearing the year’s close.
Specialists foresee stability in aftermarket values akin to 2024, potentially augmented by 5-7% due to inflation. Imports of “newly imported” vehicles might diminish further relative to 16,000 monthly, potentially escalating prices. The most pronounced interest is projected in the budget-friendly segment stemming from a decline in the public’s buying capacity.
Specialists advise performing a particularly exhaustive assessment of a car’s worth prior to acquisition, given that official figures might depict deflated statistics owing to the pervasiveness of the “gray” market.
Euro 6 emissions benchmarks: a transformation in the commercial vehicle domain
The Euro-6 emission benchmark took effect on January 1, 2025. This ranks among the most consequential innovations that fundamentally shifts the value of commercial vehicles.
Newly manufactured and pre-owned tractor units, motor coaches, and haul trucks must now adhere to Euro 6 mandates for initial registration. The permissible age for import vehicles is capped at 9-10 years, culminating in a 15-25% surge in the value of secondhand commercial vehicles.
This introduces significant obstacles for small to medium-sized enterprises, which cannot consistently manage to invest in more recent vehicles. The anticipated price of a commercial vehicle is poised to escalate continuously during the year because of constrained supply chains and amplified need for apparatus conforming to the novel benchmarks.
Electric vehicles: final annum of incentives
The electric vehicle sphere proceeds to evince favorable momentum. Spurred by the benefits enforced in 2024-2025, notably “zero customs levy,” the fascination with electric vehicles among Ukrainians has markedly grown.
Values are tipped to sustain steadiness through the culmination of 2025 on account of incentives, though projections indicate an upswing of 20-30% at the dawn of 2026 subsequent to tax reimbursements. Despite escalating electricity fees, electric vehicles continue to represent superior cost-effectiveness than gasoline or diesel-fueled counterparts.
Fuel market: its influence on vehicle selection
The augmentation of fuel excise charges in September 2024 has already reshaped the inclinations of Ukrainian motorists. The value of liquefied petroleum reached 37 hryvnias per liter, substantially diminishing the economic viability of gas-powered apparatus. The proportion of “gas” vehicles in the marketplace is gradually diminishing.
Soaring gasoline and diesel values are affecting the demand composition. An increasing number of Ukrainians are directing their focus to fuel-efficient vehicles with diminished engine volume or pondering electric vehicles as an alternative.
What vehicles will be acquired by the close of 2025
Trend examination authorizes the forecasting of shopper priorities. The most sought-after categories encompass fuel-efficient crossovers featuring a mileage of 5-7 years, budget-friendly sedans hailing from Japanese and Korean producers, electric vehicles, and commercial vehicles adhering to Euro-6 standards.
Simultaneously, vehicles equipped with gas cylinder systems are forfeiting popularity due to augmenting gas values, antiquated trucks and motor coaches due to ecological constraints, as well as the premium stratum owing to elevated values and economic turbulence.
Handy guidance for shoppers
Prior to procuring a vehicle in 2025, it warrants assessing the worth of the vehicle comprehensively, considering prospective operating expenses. In relation to commercial vehicles, ascertain adherence to the Euro-6 benchmark, otherwise registration of the vehicle will be unfeasible.
Treat an electric vehicle as a bona fide substitute while the benefits subsist. Abstain from impulsive verdicts owing to conceivable legislative alterations – consultation with specialists is favored. For a precise evaluation, liaise with accredited assessors or leverage the amenities of established sites where it’s feasible to calculate the price of a vehicle online.
