Sky Sports Racing’s senior analyst Jamie Lynch is on hand to analyse every runner in this Sunday’s Prix de Diane (French Oaks).
A fortnight ago, we were treated to a vintage renewal of the Prix du Jockey Club, and these fillies could serve up a similarly rousing rendition, as it’s rare that you see such quality and quantity combined in the Prix de Diane (3:05pm BST).
The star-studded cast includes the Pouliches winner Blue Rose Cen, a dynamic duo of undefeated fillies in Jannah Rose and Pensee Du Jour, as well as a few big-hitters from Britain and Ireland, and it’s exclusively live on Sky Sports Racing on Sunday afternoon.
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1. NOVAKAI
Jockey: C Lee | Trainer: K R Burke
It’s easy to forget about Britain’s champion 2-year-old filly of last year, Commissioning, and what she might have done in the Classics but for the injury which brought a premature end to her racing career, but to some degree she’s represented by proxy by Novakai, who made her work hard to get past in the Fillies’ Mile, having also finished second in the May Hill.
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The theme of ‘always the bridesmaid…’ was extended to the Musidora, though she ran into the Oaks winner Soul Sister at York, and it mightn’t have been as much as 4 lengths between them if Novakai hadn’t been so fresh and free to begin with. Her odds of 20/1+ seem grossly unflattering, considering she has some of the best form in the field.
2. JANNAH ROSE
C Soumillon | C Laffon-Parias
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Yet another fast-forward filly by Frankel, Jannah Rose has won all three of her starts to date, the latest the Prix Saint-Alary, a Group 1 in name more than standard this year, but she was hardly all out to assert late on under a confident Christophe Soumillon, with a messed-around Elusive Princess in second and Left Sea back in tenth.
Despite her CV, she is in practice going up another level or two here, more so than her odds might imply, and, as good as she looks on the surface, there’s still a lingering question of what she’s really made of, as cruise control won’t be enough in this company.
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3. PENSEE DU JOUR
B Murzabayev | A Fabre
After she steamrollered her rivals for a third time in succession, in the Group 3 Prix Penelope at Saint-Cloud on April 1st, it would have been almost unthinkable at the time that Pensee Du Jour wouldn’t be a short price, let alone not even favourite, for the Prix de Diane, but here we are, testimony to the strength in depth of the race and the other formidable-looking fillies that have emerged in the meantime.
She has bossed every race so far, a luxury she’s unlikely to be afforded here, especially from stall 11, but footage of some of her training workouts – when stalking rather than forcing – suggest a different plan in place for her big day. Pawneese way back in 1976 was the last horse to complete the Penelope-Diane double, but few if any fillies since then have been so impressive as Pensee Du Jour, who brings a blend of power and potential to Chantilly that most others in the line-up can’t match.
4. KHAHIRA
B Marie | Mme M Bollack-Badel
She’s had 15 races and four different trainers, but there’s nothing in her form to even remotely qualify her for the Diane and, from stall 15, she hopefully won’t get in the way of any legitimate contenders.
5. LINDY
C Demuro | C Ferland
The only horse to have ever beaten her is Blue Rose Cen, chasing home that one in both the Prix de la Grotte and the Pouliches, never really laying a glove on her either time, but the pair were chalk and cheese in terms of tactics, Lindy coming from a long way back.
The different dimensions of the Diane – of a bigger field and longer trip – at least give a reason as to why Lindy (who’s by French Derby winner Le Havre) may be able to reverse the placings this time, though it’s a longshot, as told by the betting.
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6. TASMANIA
Tom Marquand | F H Graffard
By Australia and out of a Group 2 1m2f winner who was fourth in the German Oaks, it’s no surprise that Tasmania has found her way to the Prix de Diane, though she has missed a few rungs of the ladder to do so.
She has improved in leaps and bounds this spring, successful at Saint-Cloud (a breeze) and Chantilly (a scramble, albeit with Ottery back in fourth), but this level is a world away from those races, probably too much of an ask at her stage. Part of the reason Tom Marquand is on board is that Mickael Barzalona is passing her over in favour of Elusive Princess.
7. RUNNING LION
Oisin Murphy | J & T Gosden
Is this ‘Plan A’ or ‘Plan B’? The very fact she would have run at Epsom but for playing up in the stalls points to Chantilly being an afterthought, but it’s worth remembering that immediately after her romp in the Pretty Polly (by 4½ lengths) John Gosden said that the Prix de Diane was likelier than the Oaks for her because 1m2f was believed to be her best distance.
At the time of her withdrawal from Epsom, Roaring Lion was 5/1, not that much bigger than her successful stablemate Soul Sister (11/4). Even though her Newmarket form hasn’t worked out, the taking part that day was always the style and not the substance, in tandem with her progressive profile (won her last four races), weapons that can potentially punch through a home defence even as strong as this one.
Image: Running Lion and Oisin Murphy
8. ELUSIVE PRINCESS
M Barzalona | Jph Dubois
The decision to supplement her into the Prix de Diane wouldn’t have taken up much time nor deliberation given her performance in the Prix Saint-Alary, in which she would have given Jannah Rose even more to think about with a clearer run-through.
You’d have thought she’d earned a shot of good luck after what happened to her not just at ParisLongchamp but also the race before at Saint-Cloud (looked by far the best filly in the Group 3 Prix Cleopatre), but she has struck unlucky with the draw in the Diane, widest but one in stall 14, not too damaging for one who’ll be held up at the back anyway, though she’ll have a lot of traffic to negotiate.
9. NEVER ENDING STORY
R L Moore | A P O’Brien
Has long since been campaigned by Aidan O’Brien as one of his top-tier fillies (fourth in Moyglare and third in Marcel Boussac last year), and there’s perhaps more chance of her showing it now she’s stepping up in trip, out of Athena, who didn’t reveal her true colours until upped to 1m2f and ended up winning a Grade 1 in America.
Her never-nearer fifth in the Pouliches emphasised that she’s ready for further and, despite the volume of racing she’s had, Never Ending Story could be a springer for her first chance to flex her stamina muscles.
10. CAROLINE STREET
D Browne McMonagle | Joseph P O’Brien
Of the five horses Joseph O’Brien has sent to France this year, both Above The Curve and American Sonja won their Group races, while Buckaroo was beaten a matter of heads and necks in the Prix d’Ispahan.
Caroline Street needs to raise her game to win at Chantilly, but that’s not out of the question for a filly who ran Auguste Rodin to 1½ lengths last year and made a winning return over the Diane distance in a Group 3 at Naas, albeit still 10 lb or so shy of what the primary players here have already achieved.
11. LEFT SEA
O Peslier | C Laffon-Parias
‘When she was good she was very, very good, but when she was bad she was horrid.’ Left Sea has looked a budding Group 1 filly in winning three races, but the problem is she’s had five starts and been unrecognisable the other twice, including behind Jannah Rose and co in the Prix Saint-Alary.
A silky-smooth success only seven days ago in a Listed race at ParisLongchamp has encouraged connections to turn her out quickly, presumably deviating from her original programme, and her zig-zag pattern so far hardly inspires confidence that she’ll prove the same force just a week on, in a field that will test her mettle all the more.
12. LADY EWELINA
Eduardo Pedroza | Andreas Wohler
Win or lose, her presence in the Prix de Diane is a story in itself. The fifteenth foal of Quadri, Lady Ewelina cost just 3,500 guineas as a yearling but started her career with a bang in Poland, winning at Warsaw by 10 lengths, before transfer to Andreas Wohler in Germany where she has maintained her unbeaten record, the latest success a Group 3 at Cologne in which Archie Watson’s Heavenly Breath (who was once runner-up to Blue Rose Cen last year) was the odds-on favourite.
She is up in grade and trip for this, probably a bridge too far, but she’s defied the odds from day one.
13. ROMINA POWER
A Madamet | M Figge
Flattered when sixth in the Criterium International last October and has only just got around to breaking her maiden, though it did come in a Listed race at Baden-Baden, the recognised trial for the German Oaks.
Only beat Keziah that day, and Henri-Alex Pantall’s filly wouldn’t really be anywhere near Listed level in France, and so Romina Power has a mountain to climb in this company.
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Trainer Christopher Head has described Blue Rose Cen as the ultimate professional ahead of her French Oaks bid
14. BLUE ROSE CEN
A Lemaitre | Chr Head
She has been the best of her generation in France, at least up to now, but this is something different for her, for the trip, the ground, and the opposition. The trip has the least fear factor, as the dam Queen Blossom won a Grade 3 in America at as far as 1m4f and Blue Rose Cen was (as per usual) strong at the end of the Pouliches.
The other two new ingredients are of some concern, however, as there are a few fillies in here the like of which she’s never faced before, and all of her racing has been done on good or softer ground. Up to now, she has stood out in her division, but this will tell us whether she’s just outstanding full stop.
15. WISE GIRL
Eddy Hardouin | Chr Head
Took four goes to break her maiden, and then needing 1m4f to do so, making her ill-fitting for a Classic, but she’s presumably here less for herself and more to service her team-mate Blue Rose Cen.
JAMIE LYNCH’S VERDICT
It says something that one of the ‘big three’ from the home team – Blue Rose Cen, Pensee Du Jour and Jannah Rose – may not even go off favourite, given the Gosdens’ challenger Running Lion looks their equivalent, at the very least. Still, she’s not the only British raider, and on a point of value, NOVAKAI is too big a price to miss at odds of 20/1+.
She was in the premier league of 2-year-old fillies in Britain last year and her price seems to underestimate that it was only the subsequent Oaks winner who beat her at York, on top of which Novakai is likely to be all the more of a force on this second go at the trip with the freshness out of her.
Sourse: skysports.com
