After winners galore in midweek, including Nottingham Forest (5/1) to beat Brighton and Brentford at Chelsea, Jones Knows is back with his betting insights.
- How to watch free Premier League highlights
- Get Sky Sports | Download the Sky Sports App
Crystal Palace vs West Ham, Saturday 12.30
Despite their decline in results this season, West Ham have always been respected by the markets. If you didn’t know their league position, you’d assume there were a top-10 side looking at their starting prices.
And over the last two weeks, they’ve started to show that kind of level – driven on by the magnificent engine room of Declan Rice and Lucas Paqueta. Their run of five games unbeaten was ended by Liverpool on Wednesday but fine margins were at play in a performance David Moyes was right to be happy with.
If Jarrod Bowen’s toenail stays onside, the Hammers most likely win the game while a 50-50 penalty call went against them late on. I like them here at 7/4 with Sky Bet for the away win.
- Win £250,000 with Super 6!
- Bet with Sky Bet | Download the Sky Sports App
- Premier League live table
My confidence on a positive West Ham result will only grow further if Joachim Andersen isn’t passed fit for Palace. He was taken off at half-time of Palace’s 2-0 defeat to Wolves and I’m always keen to oppose Palace when one of Marc Guehi or Andersen isn’t available as they are a fantastically solid pairing back there.
Trending
- Ten Hag: We have worst schedule this season | Man Utd boss defends subs
- Papers: Arsenal target Rice, Mount to prepare for Europe
- Transfer Centre LIVE! Rangnick: Nagelsmann should go to Spurs
- Howe not taking anything for granted in CL pursuit | Dyche: I’ve not lost fans
- PL hits and misses: Man Utd’s striker woes show they need Kane
- Young drafted No 1 by Panthers | Texans trade up for double-player swoop
- Chaos, stress & cold showers – F1 drivers prepare for new Sprint format
- PL Predictions: Wins for West Ham, Brentford & Brighton
- F1 is back! When is the Azerbaijan GP live on Sky Sports?
- Leclerc: No Mercedes talks yet | Hamilton: Speculation doesn’t impact me
- Video
- Latest News
Palace have only won two of 15 matches when one of the two first choice centre backs are missing since the start of last season with 1.7 goals conceded per 90 minutes.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Any winners for Jones Knows this midweek?
- Nottingham Forest to beat Brighton: 5/1
- Brentford double chance vs Chelsea: 11/10
- Fulham 3+ offsides vs Villa: 11/8
- Fulham 4+ offsides vs Villa: 5/2
- Marc Roca 2+ fouls vs Leicester: 13/8
- Leeds 1-1 Leicester: 7/1
- Newcastle to win 7+ corners: 6/5
- Wins for Man City, Newcastle & a draw between Tottenham & Man Utd
Brentford vs Nottingham Forest, Saturday 3pm
Although Nottingham Forest did the business for us at a gigantic 5/1 to beat Brighton on Wednesday, that form line is one to be treated with caution. As well as Forest grafted, that was the perfect time to catch a fatigued Brighton after their cup exploits – even Roberto De Zerbi admitted as much in his post-match duties.
Also See:
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
FREE TO WATCH: Highlights from the Premier League match between Nottingham Forest and Brighton
Forest have won just once on the road in 16 attempts this season, failing to score in 10 of those. If Steve Cooper could mastermind a victory here at Brentford it would surpass their victory over the Seagulls as the Bees are in fine fettle and have lost just three of their last 21 home games.
Set-pieces always play a huge part for Brentford and they’ll be looking to expose Forest, who have shipped 14 goals from such situations this season – only Bournemouth have scored more. Ethan Pinnock, Ben Mee and Zanka produced an expected goals return of 0.96 between them in the win at Chelsea with Zanka’s effort deflecting in off Cesar Azplicueta. Back Pinnock (28/1), Mee (22/1) and Zanka (28/1) to score first, all look longshots with squeaks of landing.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Brighton vs Wolves, Saturday 3pm
The 3-1 reverse at Nottingham Forest has not been enough for the market to take a negative view on Brighton – they remain so strongly backed. Roberto De Zerbi’s side played with their usual possession with a purpose but just lacked their usual bite and energy which allowed Forest to play very decisively on the counter. And Brighton missed chances, scoring just once from an expected goals tally of 2.34. If they create the same high probability scoring situations against Wolves, they are without question the most likely winners, hence odds of just 1/2 with Sky Bet for the home win.
Adding a Solly March goal to the Brighton win price rates as a decent angle. Long gone are the days of getting 11/1 on the Brighton to score at any time, but the 7/2 for him to bag in a Brighton does still have some juice.
He has scored seven goals in his last 15 Premier League appearances and his movement off the right flank does open lots of shooting opportunities as seen by his 15 shots on target in the last 10 fixtures across all competitions. After his miss at Wembley, he’d be a fitting scorer.
Image: Solly March can be backed at 7/2 to score in a Brighton win
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1
Bournemouth vs Leeds, Sunday 2pm
If Leeds are going to retain their status as a Premier League team, then it will be done in a manner equivalent to taking a sledgehammer to a wall. Javi Gracia has seemingly decided not to trust his defenders and goalkeeper to get him points, so playing four attack-minded players every week points to an aggressive philosophy that has seen Leeds score in all their last eight fixtures. I’d be surprised if they don’t continue that run away at a side that did ship four in their last home game to West Ham, yet keeping a clean sheet will be hard graft. A high scoring draw it is.
Those looking for an angle in should keep the faith with Jack Harrison to have a shot on target. The winger hasn’t fired in his last three starts but is still playing with great intensity and carries an abundance of quality cutting in off the right – as seen when registering at least one shot on target in five straight games earlier in the month. The 11/10 for him to hit the target remains overpriced.
Image: Jack Harrison is 11/10 to fire a shot on target
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
Fulham vs Manchester City, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
- Stream this game with a NOW pass | Get Sky Sports
Fulham have had a strange season. Most of their key performance metrics have them rated as a relegation threatened team, first it was their expected goals against data in the first half of the season which was the worst in the Premier League up until February.
That has improved slightly in recent months but now their expected goals for has taken a hit, to the extent they are now they are posting the worst attacking numbers since February. They had just one shot in their timid 1-0 defeat at Aston Villa and over the last 10 games have posted the lowest expected goals tally (8.29) and fewest shots in the box (49) of any Premier League side.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
FREE TO WATCH: Highlights from the Premier League match between Manchester City and Arsenal
You can’t create such miserly figures when playing teams towards the top of the Premier League and perhaps it explains why Fulham have taken just one point from nine games against Arsenal, Liverpool, Newcastle, Manchester United, Manchester City and Tottenham this season.
A City win to nil makes sense at 11/10 but I’d go a little stronger than that as I trust Fulham to stay in the game despite what the market is predicting. Marco Silva’s side have lost 10 of their 13 Premier League games this season by one-goal so combining that theory with them not being able to break past the City defence, leaves us with a 0-1 away correct score. At 7/1 that looks fair enough.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1
Manchester United vs Aston Villa, Sunday 2pm
Unai Emery is the trap king. His Aston Villa side are putting on a masterclass of how to catch opposition teams offside and the bookmakers haven’t properly copped on yet. The edge remains for their trip to Old Trafford so we’ll be backing it once again.
In their last nine Premier League games, opposition teams have been caught offside 39 times by Villa, working to an average of 4.3 per game. It showcases just how aggressive the defensive high line is under Emery and it’s that bravery at the back which is providing the base for such an impressive set of results. With time ticking away against Fulham and only holding a 1-0 lead, Villa were pressing so high, almost on the halfway line.
United have faced Villa twice under Emery and have been caught offside 11 times in the two fixtures with the likes of Marcus Rashford, Bruno Fernandes and Anthony Martial all happy to make runs in behind defences. The 5/4 with Sky Bet for the hosts to rack up four or more offsides will do just nicely in what should be a tight encounter where United may have to chase the game at some point.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Newcastle vs Southampton, Sunday 2pm
Southampton don’t yet require snookers to get out of trouble but some long-pots are needed to haul them back into contention. It’s 9/1 with Sky Bet for them to pick up an unlikely win at St James’ Park and I’d even have to think twice about taking 90/1 based on their performance against Bournemouth on Thursday.
It lacked belief. It lacked quality.
The same can’t be said for Newcastle, who are charging towards a Champions League place. With no value in the outright market for the match, I’m going to head to the Newcastle corner market to hopefully find another winner – like we did backing seven or more Newcastle corners on Thursday at 11/10 vs Everton.
They won 14 during that 4-1 victory – the fifth highest a side has won in a single match this season which took their season corner count to 223 – no side has won more corners. I’m happy to play the eight or more line at 6/5 with Sky Bet in this one in expectation of a one-sided encounter.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-0
Liverpool vs Tottenham, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports
- Stream this game with a NOW pass | Get Sky Sports
Heung-Min Son jumps off the page to score at 4/1 with Sky Bet.
Image: Back Heung-min Son to score, says Jones Knows
Liverpool, who are on a three-match winning streak, are still not entirely getting the balance right between defence and their midfield and are offering up space on the counter-attack. West Ham’s Jarrod Bowen almost exploited this on Wednesday but his goal was chalked off for a very tight offside call.
Spurs are very happy to play against such defences with quick, direct attacks suiting their forward players, like Son.
You can rest assured Son will be testing the Liverpool offside trap on regular occasions. In his last eight appearances against the Reds and Manchester City – two teams that play a high line – he has managed to break it and score six times, including scoring the first goal in the 1-1 draw at Anfield last season. That is a very healthy strike-rate against two of the best defences in Europe. He can add to his record at a juicy price.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-2
Leicester vs Everton, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
- Stream this game with a NOW pass | Get Sky Sports
The markets don’t tend to factor state of play when pricing up goal expectancy in a game which is a huge advantage to punters who spot an angle. So-called ‘six-pointers’ where relegation is concerned are assumed to be cagey, low-scoring affairs, especially ones involving Everton, whose matches are averaging around 2.2 goals per 90 minutes this season.
However, since the start of March, the 14 matches to involve two teams with genuine relegation worries have seen an average of 3.2 goals scored per game with scorelines like 0-4, 1-5 and 2-4 popping up. Even Leicester’s clash with Leeds in midweek should have flown across the over 2.5 goal line with the expected goals data showing a return of 3.8, and that wasn’t including two disallowed goals.
Everton can’t just sit and block deliveries anymore. They will have to play at a high tempo to try and cause a rickety Leicester defence trouble. Against what the market is expecting, it could lead to a goal-heavy game with the Evens with Sky Bet on over 2.5 goals a great starting point and the over 3.5 goal line worth a look at 5/2.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
Arsenal vs Chelsea, Tuesday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
- Stream this game with a NOW pass | Get Sky Sports
Trusting the process has taken Arsenal to lofty heights this season. Yet, it’s that trust that may also prove to be their downfall.
Mikel Arteta’s unwillingness to make Arsenal more secure through the centre of their defence in the absence of William Saliba has showcased his naivety and inexperience at the elite level. Liverpool, West Ham, Southampton and Manchester City all have bullied their way to goal in recent weeks with Arsenal conceding 11 goals to a backdrop of 9.8 of expected goals with the central area being particularly vulnerable as shown by Erling Haaland and Kevin De Bruyne on Wednesday.
Frank Lampard is no Pep Guardiola, that’s for sure, but imitation is the best form of flattery and he simply should copy and paste what Guardiola did on Wednesday. Play hard and fast through the middle with a focal point. Worryingly for Arsenal, the only true central striker he has is Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, who put in a dangerous cameo performance off the bench against Brentford where he looked sharp.
Image: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is 9/1 to score in a Chelsea win
The 33-year-old surely has a point to prove at The Emirates after the way his exit unfolded. Aubameyang to score in a Chelsea win at 9/1 with Sky Bet it is then.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1
Win £250,000 with Super 6!
Could you win £250,000 for free on Tuesday with Super 6? Entries by 7:45pm, good luck!
Sourse: skysports.com
