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Our tipster Jones Knows sprinkles his analysis over the Premier League weekend and believes Ivan Toney’s return can reignite struggling Brentford against Nottingham Forest.
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Brentford vs Nottingham Forest, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
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Ivan Toney is returning at a vital time.
Brentford have taken just three points from their last eight Premier League games but Toney will have been watching on knowing this is still a team creating chances for their strikers. In those eight games the Bees have scored just seven goals from a total expected goals figure of 12.7 – it’s a theme that has held them back all season. Brentford have the worst xG underperformance in the Premier League – scoring 7.85 goals less than their xG of 33.85.
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Brentford striker Ivan Toney says he can’t wait to return to Premier League action and is even looking forward to his pre-match warm-ups!
When you add someone like Toney, who scored 20 Premier League goals last season to the backdrop of a 22 per cent conversion rate, it doesn’t take a genius to work out that the trajectory of that underperformance in front of goal is going to change. Toney has scored in all three appearances vs Forest with his last goal before his ban coming against them in April 2023. The 11/10 with Sky Bet for him to score is an obvious starting point.
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Not only is he one of the most feared goalscorers in the league, he’s also one of the most fouled.
Toney is working at 2.36 fouls won per 90 average in his two seasons in the Premier League, making him the 11th most fouled player in the Premier League over that period. Forest centre-back Murillo is likely to be tasked with duelling with Toney and his price of 3/1 with Sky Bet to make two or more fouls in the match does seem rather generous.
He’s made 13 fouls in his last 14 appearances, making two or more in four of those encounters. Backing Toney to score and Murillo to make two or more fouls using the Bet Builder with Sky Bet generates a 15/2 shot to attack.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Sheffield United vs West Ham, Sunday 2pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
I’ve got serious doubts about West Ham’s short-term prospects without Lucas Paqueta, Jarrod Bowen and Mohammed Kudus.
With Kudus away at the Africa Cup of Nations, Paqueta out injured and Bowen a doubt, the Hammers look in a spot of bother for this fixture. Where are their goals coming from? They looked out of ideas even before being reduced to 10-players in their FA Cup defeat to Bristol City.
Of their last 14 goals scored across all competitions, 10 of those have come courtesy of Bowen or Kudus while Paqueta recorded six assists in his last 254 minutes of action for the Hammers. With Michail Antonio still injured, options are thin on the ground for David Moyes, whose team are working at a non-penalty conversion rate of 19 per cent this season – the best in the Premier League. However, their chance creation numbers rank them as the second worst team in the league having created just 157 openings this season – only Sheffield United (91) have racked up fewer.
All this is leading to an overperformance in front of goal, mostly due to the brilliance of Bowen and Kudus. Take them out of the equation and West Ham simply aren’t the same team. This is a fine opportunity for the Blades, who can be backed at 5/2 with Sky Bet for victory.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0
Bournemouth vs Liverpool, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
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Bournemouth have won seven of their last 10 Premier League games while Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 13 Premier League games since the start of October. This should be a cracker, although the prices look right to me with Liverpool fancied to win the game at 4/6 with Sky Bet.
With no angles to attack in the mainstream markets, heading to the player shots market looks the way forward with Joe Gomez remaining a very interesting betting proposition at 10/11 with Sky Bet to register at least one shot in the match.
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Backing full-backs in the shots market when playing on the wrong side is a profitable angle to exploit and right-footed Gomez has been filling in down the left flank for Liverpool with Andy Robertson and now Kostas Tsimikas in the treatment room. He has registered a shot in three of his four starts as he looks to score his first goal during a career that has spanned 235 senior appearances for club and country. He is also 50/1 with Sky Bet to score first. One is coming.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Brighton vs Wolves, Monday 7.45pm
Will someone please fetch the wheelbarrow. We’re in bet of the season territory here with the 10/11 with Sky Bet on offer regarding over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
When Brighton are well-rested, they can be trusted to bring the usual level of entertaining football to the table. In nine Premier League games this season where De Zerbi’s team have had six or more days of rest to prepare, those fixtures have averaged 4.2 goals per game and both teams to score has copped in each of those encounters.
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Wolves won’t shy away from the challenge either, especially if Pedro Neto is fit enough to make his return. He is the perfect out-ball to set Wolves’ counter attacks.
Gary O’Neil allows his boys to play with freedom as seen by the evidence of them scoring in 22 of their last 23 matches under his watch in all competitions. Remember, we’re enjoying a Premier League season where goals are going in at record rate of 3.09 per game and 60 per cent of matches have seen both teams score and over 2.5 goals land.
I’d have the selection much closer to 1/2 than 10/11.
It’s rare to find such value to be had in a mainstream market – so much so a market move is bound to be imminent the closer we get to kick-off. Get your bet on in good time.
SCORE PREDICTION: 4-2
Sourse: skysports.com
