A Big Sam bounce for Leeds? More like a thud, predicts Jones Knows, who takes aim at the 10 Premier League games across the long weekend.
Any winners for Jones Knows last week?
- Son to score for Spurs vs Liverpool – 4/1
- Man Utd 4+ offsides vs Aston Villa – 5/4
- Newcastle 8+ corners vs Saints – 6/5
- Over 3.5 goals in Leicester vs Everton – 5/2
- Wins for Man City, Newcastle, Liverpool, Brentford, Brighton & a draw in Leicester vs Everton
Manchester City vs Leeds, Saturday 3pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
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Clubs have been looking at that big red panic button all season. Don’t touch it. It’s only for emergencies.
West Ham could have hit it. Forest must have been tempted. Southampton will have regrets.
No-one knew what was behind it. Until now.
Well, he’s big. And his name is Sam.
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As my colleague Adam Bate writes, the concern will be that it is some time since Sam Allardyce showcased his best work. I’d be deflated if I was a Leeds fan. His only job in five years ended two years ago. West Brom were two points from safety when he was appointed in December. They were relegated in May, finishing 13 points adrift. This Leeds squad remains unhealthily unbalanced, full of high-energy players with potential and running ability favoured for a high-risk manager, like Jesse Marsch. There will be little risk under Allardyce. Defend in numbers. Defend well.
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Gary Neville says Leeds’ decision to replace Javi Gracia with Sam Allardyce demonstrates their ‘desperation’ to preserve their Premier League status.
It’s a relatively simple philosophy to coach into a team, but far better defenders than what Leeds possess have tried and failed spectacularly to smash and grab their way out of an away fixture at Manchester City. With Pep Guardiola’s eyes potentially wandering to midweek and Real Madrid, the cue may go on the rack when the first or second goal hits the net. That makes the under 3.5 goals play at 10/11 with Sky Bet look slightly tempting, but this game is dud of a betting heat.
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SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Bournemouth vs Chelsea, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
It’s the achievers’ derby. The season’s overachievers meet the underachievers. You could have had any price you wanted on Bournemouth – favourites for relegation at the start of the campaign – being level on points with Chelsea come May. The Cherries have won six of their last nine Premier League games – only Man City, Newcastle and Aston Villa have taken more points in that period. Meanwhile, Chelsea have taken two points from a possible 21 – truly pathetic for a team with such riches. There isn’t much evidence to suggest that attitude or team cohesion will improve for this encounter, so the Bournemouth win at 5/2 with Sky Bet looks bordering on too good to be true territory.
Frank Lampard has lost 14 of last 15 games in all competitions as a manager – add another one to the pile.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Tottenham vs Crystal Palace, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
One theory I’ve developed over the years when it comes to spotting a potentially profitable angle is the correlation between a player’s performance and the length of their contract remaining. It’s hard to correlate data to showcase my argument but it’s uncanny how much more enthusiastic and motivated a player can be when a contract is running down. In fairness, Wilfried Zaha is a consistent performer for Palace yet he is only a few weeks away from his deal at the club expiring and the 31-year-old will be a tempting proposition on a free transfer for some of Europe’s top clubs. Arsenal and PSG have reportedly made contact.
A barnstorming end to the season with Palace could make all the difference between clubs deciding on Zaha, so I’ll be investing on him to make a difference in games – like he did last weekend at West Ham where he got on the scoresheet in an all-action performance. He is 15/2 with Sky Bet to score first this weekend and the 11/8 on him either scoring or assisting also is worth a look.
Image: Wilfried Zaha is 15/2 to score first vs Tottenham
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
Wolves vs Aston Villa, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
As rivalries go, this one would not hold a candle to many across the world – but with both Birmingham and West Brom down in the Sky Bet Championship, this game does have added spice. Fans need a derby fix and this clash provides it.
Recent meetings do paint the picture of some bad blood. In the past seven games in the Premier League, there have been 39 yellows and two red cards shown, which works out to an average of 60 booking points per match.
That points towards the 50 or more booking points line at Evens with Sky Bet worth an interest – and Aston Villa being hard to beat once again.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1
Liverpool vs Brentford, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
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Since Jurgen Klopp tweaked Trent Alexander-Arnold’s position ahead of the draw with Arsenal, Liverpool’s performance levels have spiked, with there being much more emphasis on his creative skills being utilised in a more central position. In his last six appearances, he is registering 17 per cent more touches in the centre of the pitch while his touches down the right flank data has dropped by over 40 per cent.
He has registered six assists in that period – that’s four more than he managed in the previous 27 Premier League appearances while his overall attacking metrics are incredibly impressive. No Premier League player in the last six games has created more chances (15), had more touches of the ball (675) or made more penalty box entries (63) than Alexander-Arnold. All this evidence points towards the 15/8 with Sky Bet on him registering another assist being a slice of value. But we can push it further when assessing the opposition.
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This tactical tweak to see Alexander-Arnold play more centrally is going to increase his goal and shots output over the longer-term. We started to see signs of it against Fulham in midweek, where he registered three shots, almost scoring with a daisy-cutter drive that whipped past the post. He’s now had six shots in his last three games – all of which came from outside the box.
Brentford are in town, who notoriously defend deep and allow opposition teams plenty of space outside their box. They have faced the most shots (214) and shots on target (69) from outside the box this season in the Premier League. This should see Alexander-Arnold drift into dangerous positions for strikes on goal, so the 11/4 with Sky Bet for him to have a shot on target from outside the box looks to have potential – as does the 9/1 for him to score from outside the box. Remember, he is also on free-kicks which adds an extra avenue of attack for both bets.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Newcastle vs Arsenal, Sunday 4.30, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
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With draws no good for Arsenal, this has the feel of an incident-packed encounter involving two teams with history and a developing needle. The 0-0 draw earlier in the campaign saw the two managers have words on the touchline in a game that produced nine yellow cards, following on from the 2-0 win for Newcastle last season where Arsenal’s top four charge floundered in spectacular fashion.
Mikel Arteta’s boys need to play with bravery and risk to try and become just the third team to beat Newcastle at St James’ Park in the last 24 Premier League fixtures in order to keep tabs on Manchester City.
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Eddie’s Howe men, who are averaging 2.9 goals per game over the last nine fixtures, will therefore get plenty of moments to expose an Arsenal defence that remains on the decline having conceded 14 goals in their seven matches. Teams are finding it easier to create quality chances against the Gunners, who have only kept six clean sheets in their last 24 fixtures across all competitions.
Goals may flow regularly at either end, so the 4/5 on both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals does make appeal in a game where Arsenal’s title challenge looks likely to officially end.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-2
West Ham vs Manchester United, Sunday 7pm
Backing opposition teams to make fast starts against West Ham at the London Stadium has been a profitable strategy this season – and it looks a runner again here.
Opposition teams have managed to post two or more shots on target in 13 of the last 15 first halves of Premier League games at the London Stadium. The only two that failed to manage that were Everton in Frank Lampard’s last game and Southampton.
I’d fully expect United to cover their shots on target in the first half line of three or more at 11/10, but I’d go further than that with confident expectations around them starting fast. Erik ten Hag’s side have been leading at the break in six of their last nine fixtures and squandered 1.35 worth of first half expected goals against Brighton on Thursday night. United have also stopped the opposition from scoring a first half goal in 25 of their 33 Premier League games, more than any other side this season.
So, a way of getting a United positive result on your side at a respectable price would be to back United to win the first half at 6/4 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Fulham vs Leicester, Monday 3pm
If Leicester are to go down, they are going down swinging. In the four games under Dean Smith there have been 13 goals scored, working to a 3.25 average – above average but nothing spectacular. However, if you dig into the expected goals data, then those matches have yielded 18.1 goals according to the quality of chances created – that’s 4.5 expected goals per game and the matches have certainly felt end-to-end and a bit chaotic on the eye.
Image: Willian is 2/1 with Sky Bet to record three or more shots
This game could follow suit and the market hasn’t factored in the Smith chaos factor as 4/5 for over 2.5 goals is available with Sky Bet. Leicester have also faced an average of 16.5 shots per game under Smith, with Everton managing to post 24 in that extraordinary game on Monday Night Football. This had led me to the player shots market where Fulham’s most potent attacking weapon, Willian, rates as a juicy bet to fire shots. He’s had 10 in his last three starts with him showcasing all the zip and directness of when he was at his best for Chelsea. The 2/1 with Sky Bet for him to post three or more shots and 11/2 for four or more shots should provide a great run for your money.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
Brighton vs Everton, Monday 5.30pm
For a team that go off so short in the market, Brighton do come with a warning for those that like to back teams at odds-on in the match result markets. There is an air of inconsistency regarding their ability to find their way past a well-organised low block at home. Fulham beat them 1-0, Nottingham Forest ground out a 0-0 while Crystal Palace and Bournemouth were both only seen off by a solitary goal. The likes of Karou Mitoma and Julio Enciso are frightening talents, but they do lack a bit of ruthlessness in front of goal.
Everton’s aim will be to stay in the game for as long as possible and try to build some momentum from set pieces. That tactic is much easier with Dominic Calvert-Lewin leading the line. Everton to win or draw at 9/4 with Sky Bet stands out at the prices.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Nottingham Forest vs Southampton, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Image: Nottingham Forest vs Southampton
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If Southampton had the authority, strength and fight required to win a football match away at the City Ground – a proper hotbed under the floodlights – then they wouldn’t be cut adrift at the bottom. Games have come and gone. No points have been taken. The end is nigh for them.
Forest, who are aggressive and possess plenty of nastiness to their game, are likely to swallow timid Saints up in the firepit atmosphere.
Steve Cooper’s team have found a formula at home, taking 24 points there this season and have lost just two of their last 13 games at their famous old ground. The home win at 11/10 with Sky Bet certainly is a tempter.
Morgan Gibbs-White remains overpriced in the goalscorer markets too. A player of his talent shouldn’t be 4/1 to score against the basement boys. He averages two shots in home matches this season, scoring three times to a backdrop of 4.12 worth of expected goals, showcasing an underperformance according to quality of chance created.
Image: Morgan Gibbs-White celebrates with team-mates after scoring their sides third goal
Also, penalty duties now may fall at his door having scored from the spot against Brighton while Brennan Johnson, who missed earlier in the game, was off the pitch. The 6/1 for Gibbs-White to score in a home win rates as a backable wager.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
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