Hello darkness my old friend? Jones Knows thinks Manchester United will come back down to earth with a bump and suffer defeat at Southampton as he casts his eye over all 10 Premier League games.
- Get Sky Sports
- Download the Sky Sports App
Southampton vs Manchester United, Saturday 12.30
“Never trust one run,” is a key and wise phrase usually attached to horse racing – but it’s certainly relevant here when assessing whether Manchester United are a bet at 8/11 with Sky Bet to win away from home, something which is notoriously difficult to do for teams away from the top four.
Erik Ten Haag’s men were aggressive, clinical and fully deserving of their victory on Monday Night Football but this is a completely different match to that test. Can these players be trusted to deliver back-to-back performances when the expectation levels are heaped back onto their shoulders? I’d suggest seeing a doctor if seriously thinking about backing United at odds-on here.
- Which Premier League players could be on the move before Deadline Day?
- Live Premier League table | Premier League fixtures
- Get Sky Sports | Download the Sky Sports App
Let’s not forget about the sample size we have to analyse. It’s pretty big. United have lost the last seven Premier League away games, conceding 21 goals along the way.
In 2022, they have taken just two points from losing positions – no ever-present Premier League team in that time has won fewer. It showcases a worrying mentality when falling behind in a game. And, here they a facing a Southampton side that are famed for their explosive starts in matches under Ralph Hasenhuttl.
Trending
- Transfer Centre latest: Man Utd set £80m Antony budget
- Why Antony is Ten Hag’s man
- Papers: Man City reject £59m PSG bid for ‘unsettled’ Silva
- Liverpool draw Rangers in CL; Haaland set for Dortmund reunion
- PL Predictions: Hello darkness my old friend? Man Utd to lose at Saints
- EL & ECL group-stage draw: Who could Man Utd and Arsenal face?
- Which Premier League players could be on the move before Deadline Day?
- Ricciardo open to Alpine return and F1 sabbatical after McLaren snub
- Man Utd transfer rumours: Dembele to swap Lyon for United?
- Scheffler extends FedExCup lead as McIlroy battles back from nightmare start
- Video
- Latest News
If you mock up a league table involving just first half results from last season, Saints would be sixth having gone in at the break ahead in 13 of their 38 Premier League matches. If you drill down to analyse just home matches against the traditional ‘big six’ under Hasenhuttl, the case for a pro-Southampton angle becomes even more appealing. In 18 such matches, they have scored the first goal on 12 occasions, defying the market expectation in each fixture.
Saints are certainly worth a swing at 7/2 with Sky Bet to be leading at half time and with question marks still hanging over the way this Manchester United side deal with setbacks, Saints to be winning at half time and full time at 13/2 has to be considered.
Also See:
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Winners highlighted last weekend…
- Marc Cucurella to have 2+ shots (11/4)
- Arsenal to win to nil (11/8)
- Southampton to beat Leicester 2-1 (11/1)
- Wolves +2 handicap vs Spurs (8/11)
- Over 50+ booking points in Fulham vs Brentford (5/4)
Brentford vs Everton, Saturday 3pm
I have little interest in this one from a match result perspective. It could go either way. It probably will be low scoring.
Unreal analysis, I know.
There is a bet to be had though.
Image: Alex Iwobi is a 15/2 shot to be carded this weekend
Alex Iwobi is going through a Joelinton-like makeover at Everton. From being a borderline figure of fun, he has quickly become an automatic selection that the crowd are absolutely loving. And what’s even more remarkable is that he’s achieving this status as a central midfielder. Frank Lampard has made him the cornerstone of his midfield, starting him in the last 15 Premier League games.
- LAST WEEK’S SUPER 6: There were over 13,000 Super 6 players who made it through to Leeds vs Chelsea in the first Super Sunday match of the afternoon, though only 149 players correctly predicted the 3-0 victory for Leeds, while 536 correctly predicted Newcastle 3-3 Manchester City. There was no jackpot winner.
In that period, just three Premier League players have created more chances from open play than Iwobi’s 24. They are Martin Odegaard, Harry Kane and Kevin De Bruyne – not a bad trio.
And, no player in the Premier League has won the ball back for his side more than his tally of 109. The next player in is Emile-Pierre Hojbjerg with 100.
Iwobi has made 17 fouls too in that time – only eight players have made more in the Premier League. He was carded in last weekend’s 1-1 draw with Nottingham Forest for stopping a quick counter-attack, which was surprisingly his first card in that 15-game run. Perhaps that’s why he’s the rank outsider at a whopping 15/2 with Sky Bet to be carded this weekend. A central midfielder with his all-action style and his recent combative record should be plenty shorter than that for a yellow card. We must punish them.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-0 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Alex Iwobi to be carded (15/2 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Back 125/1 Jones Knows double!
Back both Ilkay Gundogan and Harvey Elliott to score first this weekend!
Brighton vs Leeds, Saturday 3pm
Brighton are running hot right now. Just one defeat in 12 Premier League games across the summer is another testament to the exceptional job Graham Potter and the club’s hierarchy are doing. Are they trustworthy from a betting perspective though? Absolutely not, especially at home.
Only Norwich (12), Watford (17) and Burnley (18) scored fewer goals in home games last season than Brighton (19) and they kicked off this campaign with a wayward finishing 0-0 display against Newcastle.
I can’t resist a bit of 9/1 with Sky Bet on Solly March scoring though.
As pinpointed last weekend, March is predominately left-footed and fits the bill for my “wide players cutting in onto the stronger foot” theory that has led to some profitable bets when following Kyle Walker-Peters and Neco Williams when playing for Wales in the shots and goals markets. March went close again last weekend to scoring his first goal for two years generating a 0.16 expected goals figure from his two shots in the box, taking his tally to 0.48 expected goals for the season. A player generating those numbers should not be 9/1 to score anytime against a team his team are odds-on to beat.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Chelsea vs Leicester, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Image: Super 6 is back this weekend, with another £250,000 up for grabs!
Edouard Mendy’s mistake and Leeds’ relentless energy put pay to my Chelsea win to nil fancy last weekend but I’m rolling the dice again on the same bet in anticipation that Thomas Tuchel will have his charges ruthlessly organised. He normally does after a poor defensive showing.
In games where they have conceded more than two goals against Wolves, Arsenal, Brentford and West Brom under Tuchel, they have responded with four clean sheets in the next game, winning each of those games too.
-
Podcast: Chelsea in transition…The Blues’ overhaul examined | Havertz on slip-ups and slang
Leicester remain a team to oppose as my pre-season hopes for them have been truly dashed by obvious problems within their camp. They have kept just one clean sheet in their last 27 Premier League games on their travels and have created a woeful tally of 0.91 from their three league matches against Brentford, Arsenal and Southampton this season. That is enough to send alarm bells ringing.
Back Chelsea to win to nil at 11/8 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Liverpool vs Bournemouth, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
There hasn’t been much to shout about when it comes to Liverpool so far this season as they have made their worst start to a Premier League season for 10 years. However, this does look the perfect fixture for them to get properly up and running. And I’m hoping Harvey Elliott takes centre stage.
Image: Harvey Elliott is a great bet to score this weekend, says Jones Knows
Liverpool have been crying out for attacking dynamism from midfield to support their front three and it looks like Jurgen Klopp is pushing Elliott to the fore in that regard. Yes, he is without a Premier League goal as yet but let’s not forget he has only started six games for Klopp at this level and since returning from injury he looks a player capable of chipping in with plenty of goals over a long period.
In his last two starts against Crystal Palace and Manchester United, dovetailing down the right with Mohamed Salah and Trent Alexander-Arnold, he has posted seven shots on goal and nine touches in the opposition box. That equated to an expected goals tally of 0.56, showcasing that the quality of chances dropping his way will be taken by a player of his quality sooner or later.
The oddsmakers haven’t really cottoned onto his threat in the goalscorer markets as yet and my eye lit up at the prospect of him scoring this weekend at 11/4 with Sky Bet against a team Liverpool are 1/14 with Sky Bet to beat. I’ll be backing that with double stakes and having a small play him scoring twice, too, at 22/1 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-0 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Harvey Elliott to score anytime (11/4 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Manchester City vs Crystal Palace, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Trying to formulate profitable strategies to get ahead of bookmakers’ prices is arguably one of the most important weapons in order to make long-term profit in this game. I’ve got one I’m going to share with you surrounding the goalscoring prices of Erling Haaland.
To put it simply, against teams that are likely to play a low block in order to frustrate City I think the first goalscorer price on Haaland is way too short in the market. There is already plenty of evidence to suggest that in just three matches his presence is actually creating more space for his team-mates to become the first goalscorer in the match rather than himself, who is being marked closely by two or even three centre-backs.
When teams have to come out and chase City, that’s when Haaland is likely to be very dangerous and merit the current goalscorer quotes. But early on in games, his threat might be negated. We’ve already seen that by Ilkay Gundogan netting the first goal in the win at Bournemouth and 3-3 draw at Newcastle, where he was priced around the 9/1 mark on both occasions.
- Over 350,000 Super 6 entrants are expecting the champions to return to winning ways in the form of a 3-1 victory, as they welcome Palace to the Etihad on Saturday.
It could be a case of rinse and repeat that this weekend against Crystal Palace, who will sit deep and defend in numbers early on like they did in their 1-1 draw with Liverpool. Using my theory, that makes Haaland insanely short at 15/8 with Sky Bet to score the first goal and offers opportunities elsewhere in the likes of Gundogan (9/1), Kevin De Bruyne (6/1) and whoever starts in the City front three.
Image: Ilkay Gundogan celebrates after giving Manchester City the lead at the Etihad
At the prices, I’m happy to play Gundogan this weekend. He’s a player that has significantly improved his goal output in the last two years. He has now scored 29 goals in 93 appearances in all competitions since start of the 20/21 season, including three in his last two home games. It does make the 9/1 look rather bulky.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Ilkay Gundogan to score first (9/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Arsenal vs Fulham, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
- Stream this game with NOW TV
- Download the Sky Sports App
Mikel Arteta can raise his bat to the Arsenal pavilion as he reaches 100 Premier League games in charge of the Gunners. And, he’s likely to celebrate doing what his teams do best, beating bottom-half teams at The Emirates.
In 20 home games against teams that finished the season in the bottom eight, Arteta has guided Arsenal to 14 wins. That statistic can be further enhanced when just including opposition teams that had been promoted in the two years before that certain fixture with nine wins from 12 matches with only one defeat. Also, if you stretch it back beyond the Arteta era, the Gunners are unbeaten in their last 33 home Premier League games against newly-promoted teams, winning 28, since a 1-0 defeat vs Newcastle in 2010.
- Arsenal transfer rumours: Neto too pricey for Gunners?
And such is the energy, confidence and feel-good factor in north London at the minute, this is a really tough ask for Fulham. The problem we have is that the markets have an Arsenal win fully covered at 2/9 with Sky Bet so we’re having to get creative to find an angle in.
- SUPER 6: Could Arsenal make it four wins from four against Fulham? Over 250,000 players are backing a 3-1 win for the Gunners.
My play is to take the impressive Gabriel Jesus to score in an Arsenal win at 5/6 with Sky Bet. The case for Jesus is an obvious one which I don’t need to explain but his chances of scoring are enhanced by Fulham being particularly vulnerable through the heart of their defence, which still looks Championship standard to me. Darwin Nunez took just 39 minutes to score, have four shots and three on target in Fulham’s 2-2 opening day draw whilst Ivan Toney ran amok last weekend, scoring and having another disallowed by VAR.
Jesus will be licking his lips.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-0
Aston Villa vs West Ham, Sunday 2pm
Is this the beginning of the end of West Ham’s glory period under David Moyes?
He has done remarkable things but he is certainly at a crossroads. It’s now just one win in their last 10 Premier League games either side of the summer and they were second-best across all departments in the 2-0 home defeat to Brighton.
One thing Moyes has done exceptionally well is recruit players that have hit the ground running. Now could be the time to throw in those players in to refresh the confidence and spark within a first XI that maybe going a little stale, especially in midfield where the Declan Rice and Tomas Soucek axis just isn’t working anymore. Rice needs a new partner in there.
With Tottenham and Chelsea to come after this one, Moyes could really do with a reaction from his team, who remain the only team yet to score in the top four English leagues this season. Will he get one? It’s hard to be confident based on what Brighton did to them last weekend.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0
Wolves vs Newcastle, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
- Stream this game with NOW TV
- Download the Sky Sports App
Callum Wilson’s hamstring injury that is going to rule him out for four weeks ended the drought problem in my neck of the woods. Having had a good bet on him to make the England squad this winter at 11/1 and 6/1, my tears solved the water shortage.
My first instinct was to draw that the Wilson absence was really bad news for Newcastle with Chris Wood likely to replace him as the central striker – but the numbers told me differently. Since signing for Newcastle, Wood has started 15 Premier League games and the club have won nine of those matches, registering a healthy 60 per cent strike rate. He may have scored just two goals in 1353 minutes of action – one of those was a penalty in the 1-0 win over Wolves – but his presence and all-round play does seem to benefit the team.
So, with Wood’s goalscoring threat low that does open the goalscoring market up to have a pop at a Newcastle player to score the first goal. Joe Willock certainly is a runner at 18/1 with Sky Bet as he is a dangerous player and a natural finisher – but I can’t let Dan Burn go unbacked at 66/1.
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Newcastle United
Sunday 28th August 1:00pm Kick off 2:00pm
Wolves have conceded the second highest expected goals figure from set pieces so far this season (1.69) – a small sample size of course – but they did look a very technical, diminutive team against Spurs barring the two centre-backs so it wouldn’t surprise me if this area of defence becomes a problem for them in the long-run.
Burn has been threatening to open his account for Newcastle, missing a free header from 12 yards out in the recent 0-0 draw with Brighton – one of five shots he’s had on goal already this season. If you stretch the data back to when he joined Newcastle in January, he ranks fifth in the Premier League for average touches in the opposition box per-90 minutes (1.58) and sixth for total shots per-90 (0.84). He is the main target point for all Newcastle’s set pieces and sooner or later a huge chance is going to drop his way. It could be this weekend.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Dan Burn to score first (66/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham, Sunday 4.30, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
- Stream this game with NOW TV
- Download the Sky Sports App
Most of my pre-season bets are looking rather ominous.
Leicester top-six finish (yes, really), Callum Wilson top Premier League goalscorer and to make England squad and Tottenham to win a trophy.
You may raise your eyebrows at that last one as Spurs have taken seven points from three games but boy have their performance levels been worrying. A team with far greater cutting edge than Wolves would have taken advantage of such great attacking opportunities in the first half last weekend whilst Antonio Conte’s men were completely outplayed by Chelsea in the 2-2 draw.
I wouldn’t be going anywhere near them at Nottingham Forest at 4/9 with Sky Bet to record maximum points, especially with this being a live Super Sunday game at a buoyant and rocking City Ground. One thing Spurs are deadly at under Conte is scoring at the right times in matches and there is a certain unknown about this new-look Forest side, so the match markets are a no bet for me.
Nottingham Forest
Tottenham Hotspur
Sunday 28th August 4:00pm Kick off 4:30pm
I do like the look of a price in the shots market though. Nottingham Forest to have 11 or more shots will undoubtedly give you a great run for your money at 6/5 with Sky Bet. Since Conte took charge of Spurs, they are prone to defending deep and that usually allows opposition to rack up the shots on their goal. Away from home under Conte, Spurs have conceded on average 16.5 shots per-game on their goal, including 19 at Leeds and 15 at both Burnley and Brentford.
Forest managed 13 shots in their home clash with West Ham and that was despite defending a lead for 45 minutes. I’d expect their home games to be full of action and attacking intent this season, so that 11 shots line does look a generous price when you factor in the opposition and the likely intense atmosphere.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
Win £250,000 with Super 6!
Man Utd vs Liverpool… and more in this weekend's Super 6! Win £250,000 for free. Entries by 3pm Saturday.
Sourse: skysports.com
