All eyes will be on Arsenal’s wobbling Premier League bid on Friday. Our tipster Jones Knows thinks Southampton can score as he takes aims at the Premier League card.
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Arsenal vs Southampton, Friday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
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The old adage goes: defences win titles.
However, it’s only happened 14 times that the team with the fewest goals conceded (including joint-fewest) has won the Premier League title from 31 seasons, so there remains hope for Arsenal on that front.
The defensive decline since the World Cup by Mikel Arteta’s boys has been laid bare in the last two fixtures.
Since the World Cup break, their expected goals against figure has risen from 0.85 per-90 to 1.28 per-90 while their shots on target faced numbers have also increased from 2.6 per-90 to 4.00 per-90.
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Why Saliba’s absence is hurting Arsenal
Image: William Saliba is making slow progress in his recovery from a back injury
Teams are finding it easier to create quality chances against the Gunners, who have only kept six clean sheets in their last 21 fixtures across all competitions now and have conceded 20 Premier League goals since the restart – there are 10 teams that have conceded fewer since the World Cup.
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That’s a 72 per cent strike rate for opposition teams scoring. And when correlating those percentages into the price for Southampton to score at The Emirates, the basic maths tells us we probably should be backing the Saints to get on the scoresheet as there is 11/10 with Sky Bet available which equates to around a 48 per cent chance. That’s a nice edge.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1
Any winners for Jones Knows at the weekend?
- Dominic Solanke to score vs Spurs – 9/2
- Arsenal to be winning at HT – 11/10
- Nottingham Forest vs Man Utd under 2.5 goals – 11/10
- Man Utd to win & under 3.5 goals – 11/8
- BTTS in Man City vs Leicester – Evens
Fulham vs Leeds, Saturday 12.30pm
Andreas Pereira is going about his business very nicely for Fulham this season. Marco Silva is always quick to mention his importance and that is seen by him being one of just two Fulham players to start all 30 Premier League games this season along with Tim Ream. His return of just three goals is perhaps a little disappointing but he’s of massive interest in the goalscorer markets against such a welcoming defence like Leeds, who are the worst defence in the Premier League and have conceded 11 in their last two.
Image: Andreas Pereira celebrates after giving Fulham the lead at Bournemouth
All three of those Pereira goals have been scored when Aleksandar Mitrovic has been missing and he posted four shots at Everton last weekend to a backdrop of 0.4 worth of expected goals. Without the big striker, Pereira is taking more of a responsibility to get into dangerous central areas. In 762 minutes of action without Mitrovic, Pereira is averaging almost 2.5 shots per-90 with a shots on target return of 1.1 per-90. He is a big player at 7/2 to score and I’ll also dabble with the 33/1 on him scoring two or more.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Andreas Pereira to score (7/2 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Brentford vs Aston Villa, Saturday 3pm
I’ve not seen a team make Newcastle look so ordinary the way that Aston Villa did. With Ollie Watkins playing like three strikers in one, Villa, motivated by Europe and full of swagger, are a team I want on my side.
Yes, Brentford are rough, ready and hard to beat at home, losing just three of their last 20 Premier League games but Unai Emery’s team look lively outsiders at 9/5 with Sky Bet for the away win.
There are lots of Villa-pro bets lurking across a variety of the prop markets but the one that stands out is the 11/2 with Sky Bet for Alex Moreno to get an assist.
Image: Alex Moreno is 11/2 to record an assist vs Brentford
The signing of Moreno bodes well for Aston Villa’s summer recruitment as he’s been exceptional undertaking a very attack-minded full-back role for Emery.
Since the start of March, 42 per cent of Villa’s attacks have come down the left side with Moreno racking up some impressive numbers. No defender has had more touches in the opposition-box per-90 in the Premier League during that period with Moreno averaging 4.2 which is an even higher rate than the likes of Bruno Fernandes and James Maddison.
He tops the charts for defenders in terms of take-ons in the opposition half too at 3.74 which puts him in and around players like Karou Mitoma and Antony in that bracket – in fact, he’s ranked 15th in the Premier League of all players for that metric over that timeframe.
Once in the final third, he’s creating chances, with his per-90 average at 2.02 to a backdrop of 0.28 of expected assists – a metric which gauges the quality of chance he’s providing to his teammates. Only five Premier League players have a higher return since March.
This ratio of assist making puts him up there with Jack Grealish and Trent Alexander-Arnold for assist capabilities, yet, his price in the market remains hugely inflated. He’s recorded three assists in his last eight starts and provided the pass for Watkins’ goal that was ruled out by VAR last weekend too. With confidence flying in the Villa camp, Moreno is a fine wager to maintain his hot assist streak.
How does Sky Bet define an "assist"….
For any bets involving assists, the following rule will be applied: “An Assist is defined as the final pass or pass-come-shot leading to the recipient of the ball scoring a goal. It also includes the following actions: Penalty won; attempt saved, ahot hit woodwork, rebound scored; instigating an own goal through a shot/pass.”
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Alex Moreno assist (11/2 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Crystal Palace vs Everton, Saturday 3pm
Abdoulaye Doucoure’s red card against Tottenham could have catastrophic consequences for Everton’s season. Without his physicality and running power, Sean Dyche hasn’t managed to find a solution and performances have lagged. And now, confidence looks shot after the 3-1 defeat to Fulham. This is the last game of his three-match suspension and, with Dominic Calvert-Lewin remaining low on match fitness, I think Dyche would snap your hand off for a point at Selhurst Park.
It’s three wins on the bounce for Palace, but still they remain 12th – it’s now 108 days in that position. Anything less than 6-0 win will keep them there too heading into midweek. This is a winnable one too for them and the 11/10 with Sky Bet for a home is quite tempting considering Everton’s woefully underperforming attack that have scored just 24 goals this season, a league low. One goal may just do for Palace.
Michael Olise looks overpriced to get that first goal at 12/1 with Sky Bet. Everton have really struggled defending one-on-one situations down the flanks in recent weeks and Olise, despite only scoring twice this season, looks a man playing with a huge amount of zip and quality. Always a threat from free-kicks too, the winger carries a greater goalscoring threat than his odds suggest.
Image: Michael Olise is 12/1 with Sky Bet to score first
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0
Leicester vs Wolves, Saturday 3pm
Home win? No thanks. Away win? Nah, you’re alright.
Must be the draw then at 9/4 with Sky Bet.
Many will see Wolves as the outsiders for this encounter at almost 2/1 with Sky Bet for the away win and be lured in. That’s totally understandable when looking at how Julen Lopetegui has made them a collective unit where everyone seems to understand their roles. It’s a basic requirement of a football team but one that is so undervalued. Trusting this team to score will always hold me back on backing Wolves when there isn’t much juice in the price. This is a team that have failed to record an expected goals tally of over 1.00 in six of their last eight matches – it still points to problems with chance creation.
Meanwhile, Leicester may still stay up to make Dean Smith look like an inspired appointment, but they’ve had a huge downgrade in the dugout by replacing Brendan Rodgers. Going back to basics will be the order of the day which should result in some nervy, low scoring encounters – starting with this one. The 0-0 has to be a runner at 17/2 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-0
Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest, Saturday 3pm
If Liverpool turn up in the same mood as their second half performance at Leeds on Monday night, then Nottingham Forest are in danger of a proper spanking.
So much emotion and energy went into Forest’s 23-year road back to the Premier League but if their current malaise continues, it all looks set to end after a single season. A run of 10 games without a win means they are now 2/7 second favourites with Sky Bet for the drop. Steve Cooper’s stock must be falling as he hasn’t been able to find the right formula, especially in the final third. Forest go against what has made Cooper such a progressive coach by being a stale, negative team to watch.
Image: Diogo Jota celebrates scoring for Liverpool at Leeds
They’ve made the fewest passes in the opposition half of any Premier League team and are ranked the lowest for touches in opposition box, corners and possession won in final third. Just five goals scored in 15 away games, failing to score in 10 of those is an appalling return.
A Liverpool win to nil at 5/6 with Sky Bet is potentially a smart way of getting Liverpool at a backable price or chancing your arm at some fancy scorelines: 5-0 (14/1), 6-0 (28/1) and 7-0 (66/1) make sense.
SCORE PREDICTION: 5-0
Bournemouth vs West Ham, Sunday 2pm
Having tipped up Dominic Solanke to score a hat-trick at 300/1 vs Tottenham, imagine my excitement when my mate text me saying “Get in. Solanke three goal…….involvements.” Two assists and a goal for the Bournemouth striker was just fine though with 9/2 for him to score landing as one of the best bets of the weekend.
Enough of the trumpet blowing – what’s the angle here?
I’d fully expect David Moyes to respect Bournemouth on their own patch and play with the usual security and lack of risk – something that led them to a 1-0 win at Fulham. That should provide Gary O’Neill’s team plenty of territory and attacking opportunities to exploit, so I’m heading to the shots market.
Matias Vina was a surprise starter for Bournemouth at Spurs but he looked very comfortable playing with plenty of freedom a left-wing back role with Lloyd Kelly providing defensive support. Vina got on the scoresheet in that 3-2 win and he looks overpriced at 7/2 with Sky Bet to record two shots against the Hammers.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Newcastle vs Tottenham, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
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It takes a fully functioning, collective performance to win at St James’ Park against this Newcastle United side.
Eddie Howe’s side have only tasted defeat twice in 22 home matches – both of those to Liverpool. I’d be surprised if Tottenham possess the unity, confidence and midfield power to keep their top-four hopes alive, especially with Newcastle likely to be a wounded animal after their worst performance of the season at Villa Park.
Tottenham have also lost six of their seven Premier League games against current top six teams this season and arrive low on momentum following their 3-2 defeat to Bournemouth.
So, the Toon rate as the likely winners at 4/5 with Sky Bet – but there is a way to boost the price to squeeze more juice out.
In 11 games against the traditional ‘big six’ and Brighton this season, Newcastle’s games have averaged just 1.9 total goals per-90 with eight of those falling under the 2.5 goals line and three of those matches ending 0-0. When at their best, Newcastle play with a huge amount of control and don’t usually like to engage in helter-skelter high-scoring matches. They could be in ‘job done’ mode for this one with such a massive prize of Champions League football in sight.
Adding under 2.5 goals to a Newcastle win takes the price to 7/2 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0
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