Jones Knows is combining his three best angles of the weekend to conjure up a 11/1 treble that starts with the Manchester derby at lunchtime.
How did we get on last time?
Two points invested on Brentford to be caught offside three or more times vs Liverpool and Bryan Mbeumo to be caught offside at least once at 5/2 was a bet put up purely on Liverpool’s rocketing offside against numbers. That was my angle. So, why oh why, did I decided to include Mbeumo in the bet? It was unnecessary and ultimately cost me money. Brentford had SEVEN offsides in the game but I didn’t make a penny as Mbeumo wasn’t responsible for any of them. His strike partner Yoane Wissa had four of them.
Just simply backing four or more offsides was trading at 7/2 – significantly bigger than than my advised bet. A lesson of learning to keep things simple when you feel there is a value play to be had has been ringing in my ears ever since.
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1pt treble on under 3.5 goals & Manchester United most cards in Manchester derby, James Ward-Prowse to have one or more shots on target & both teams to score ‘no’ in Nottingham Forest vs Leicester (11/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
All three of these plays did stand out as value calls but all were too short to put up as individual bets as we like to keep the prices bulky for the purposes of this column. So, combining all three to create a 11/1 treble seems a sensible idea.
Only one of Man City’s last 14 away games against ‘big six’ opposition, barring Liverpool, have produced four or more goals. City’s attack isn’t exactly purring right now either. After scoring 33 goals in their opening nine Premier League games (3.7 per game), City have scored just 12 in their last eight (1.5 per game) and fired a blank at Saints without even registering a shot on target.
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All this equates to the under 3.5 goals line being a safe play. And, I always like backing the opposition for most cards in a game where Manchester City could be expected to struggle.
In 10 of the last 11 domestic games where City haven’t won, the opposition have seen more cards shown – and the only game where that didn’t land was the Premier League defeat to Brentford where the card score was 2-2. United can win the cards race.
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James Ward-Prowse played in a much-advanced role in Southampton’s 2-0 win over the champions, almost as a second striker. Such is Ward-Prowse’s threat from attacking free-kicks and being the designated penalty taker too, his prices across his shot and goal output are well worth snapping up against an Everton defence that have shipped more shots than anyone this season. Ward-Prowse has had three shots on target and two goals in his three appearances for Jones in the Premier League, so backing him to have a shot on target looks a shrewd call.
Since the restart, Leicester have scored just two goals in their five fixtures across all competitions as confidence and rhythm is lacking in forward areas. Backing the 11/10 with Sky Bet on the ‘no’ for both teams to score in their clash with Forest, who are known for low scoring games at home, covers a lot of likely correct scores at an odds-against price.
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