Our tipster Jones Knows is eyeing a 50/1 shot when Nottingham Forest host Arsenal and he is also advising a goalscorer bet at 22/1.
How did we get on last weekend?
Three points of profit were bagged as the 5/1 treble of Newcastle 6+ corners, under 3.5 goals in Man Utd vs Wolves and Brighton to win or draw at Arsenal did the business, taking us to +43.5 for the season.
We lost two points on Morgan Gibbs-White failing to find the net at 8/1, although there was a significant market move on his price close to kick-off which suggests we were on the right lines to be aggressive with those odds.
We were a week too early to the party with Trent Alexander-Arnold scoring from outside the area at 9/1 against Leicester. My failure to profit was a little annoying but it was good to read a few of you getting in touch having kept the faith.
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P+L = +43.5
Tosin Adarabioyo to score anytime for Fulham vs Crystal Palace (22/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Roy Hodgson has added plenty of panache and flamboyancy to Palace since returning as boss, but one area of concern has been their declining numbers at defending set-pieces. They’ve shipped five goals since Hodgson took back the reins – only Bournemouth have conceded more in that period.
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This has alerted me to the price of Tosin Adarabioyo in the anytime market where you can snaffle up 22/1 with Sky Bet on him finding the net. Since coming back into the team, the centre-back has had seven shots in his last five home games and is the usual first point of contact from Fulham’s set-pieces.
His last goal came in September away at Nottingham Forest and he’s usually good for at least two goals a season, so his turn might be coming. Those who like a shorter price should also take note of the 10/11 with Sky Bet on him registering at least one shot in the game, and that forms part of my weekend treble – read below!
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Keylor Navas to be carded and Nottingham Forest to beat Arsenal (50/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
My Anthony Taylor carding goalkeepers angle failed to deliver any fruit last weekend, with Jordan Pickford and Everton falling behind too early to make that bet a runner – but I’m willing to roll the dice again here with Taylor in charge.
With Forest likely to make a game of this, there is a huge slice of value in backing Nottingham Forest to win and Keylor Navas to be carded at 50/1 with Sky Bet. Taylor remains the strictest referee when it comes to time-wasting in the Premier League – he shows no patience for it.
He has shown 14 yellow cards for that offence this season – the most of any referee – with nine of those for goalkeepers. That’s six more than any other Premier League referee has produced for goalkeepers wasting time. He even booked Ederson after just 36 minutes in Manchester City’s win at The Emirates. Navas, who has been carded twice for time-wasting since joining from PSG, hopefully can catch his eye as Forest grind their way to victory, and ultimately safety.
Nottingham Forest
Arsenal
Saturday 20th May 5:00pm Kick off 5:30pm
Adarabioyo to have one or more shots vs Palace, Nottingham Forest to win or draw vs Arsenal and Leeds most booking points vs West Ham (15/2 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Along with the Tosin shout and Forest to get a result at the City Ground, Leeds look absolute bankers to rack up some cards against West Ham and win the bookings race.
West Ham have been shown the fewest yellow cards (10) over the past 11 games in the Premier League and traditionally David Moyes’ tenure at the Hammers has seen their card count be very low due to their desire to defend deep and hit on the counter.
With the stakes so high for Leeds the possibility of cynical fouls, time-wasting if they go ahead and general aggression certainly makes that 4/5 stand out. Even though it’s a small sample size, Leeds have been shown seven cards in the two games under Sam Allardyce.
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