Arsenal have topped the Premier League table since November with a skeleton squad, but should Mikel Arteta make changes to his regular XI when his side face Manchester City on Wednesday?
Pep Guardiola’s outfit have held runner-spot for two months but could leapfrog the Gunners with a win at the Emirates on goal difference – although Arsenal would still have a game in hand.
Arteta confessed his squad was “very, very short” back in November and has proceeded to stick with a regular XI this season with minimal changes to cater for injuries – in the absence of key players Thomas Partey, Gabriel Jesus and Oleksandr Zinchenko.
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Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta gives injury updates on Emile Smith Rowe and Gabriel Jesus and says contract talks with Bukayo Saka and William Saliba are ongoing.
Eddie Nketiah, Kieran Tierney, Takehiro Tomiyasu and Albert Sambi Lokonga stepped up to the plate – with Nketiah netting four goals in seven games since replacing the sidelined Jesus, while Lokonga has joined Crystal Palace on loan after the Gunners snapped up Jorginho from Chelsea in the January transfer window.
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The graphic below highlights Arteta’s dependency on his regular starters: seven of his players have started every league game, while captain Martin Odegaard only missed the Brentford match due to injury in September.
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Partey, Jesus and Zinchenko would almost certainly have joined their ever-present team-mates if they hadn’t been sidelined on the treatment table.
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For context, big-spenders Chelsea have made 79 changes to their starting XIs in the Premier League this term; Arsenal have made a league-low 14 changes in 21 games – which is almost half the figure of any other team in the division.
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The Gunners signed centre-back Jakub Kiwior (23), Jorginho (31) and Brighton winger Leandro Trossard (28) in the winter window to add squad depth for their title tilt with experienced quality.
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Indeed, Arsenal have topped the table for almost the entirety of the campaign with the youngest starting XI in the league, averaging just 24 years and 250 days.
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Of those signings, Trossard has looked the most likely to dislodge the regular XI during a period in which the Gunners have lost some of the momentum which had pulled them eights points clear of Manchester City only a month ago.
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Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta says he appreciates the PGMOL’s apology, but insists the VAR decision that allowed Brentford’s equaliser to stand was ‘not acceptable’.
Looking at the rolling average for expected goals scored and conceded over the league campaign to date, Arsenal are currently close to their season low for creating clear-cut chances in front of goal, while conceding a season-high number of chances at the other end.
Expected goals explained
Expected goals (xG) calculates how many goals a player should have scored, based on the quality of chances presented to them.
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In terms of influential players on the frontline, Trossard currently stands as the Gunners’ most potent goal threat. Those numbers are skewed, given the winger has clocked only 67 league minutes – but his performances from the bench have certainly done enough for him to stake a reasonable claim for a starting berth.
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The 28-year-old replaced Gabriel Martinelli with eight minutes to go against Manchester United and showed considerable ball control in the closing stages, while also replacing the Brazilian with 30 minutes remaining in the 1-0 defeat to Everton and 1-1 draw against Brentford – in which he scored the leveller within four minutes of coming onto the field.
The expected-goals race chart below – which displays each team’s accumulated xG over 90 minutes – shows how Trossard helped the Gunners soar clear of the Bees with his deft movement and finish.
The Belgian’s stake for a start is magnified by Martinelli’s five-game goal drought in the Premier League, having scored seven in 16 appearances before his barren run.
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FREE TO WATCH: Highlights from Arsenal’s draw against Brentford in the Premier League.
However, xG data reveals the Brazilian is actually recording peak returns for expected goals and assists combined – which suggests a combination of bad luck, poor finishing or superior goalkeeping has contributed to his dry run.
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Additionally, Martinelli is the second-fastest player among the title chasers with a top speed of 35.9km/h – which is faster than City right-back Kyle Walker and bettered only by Erling Haaland’s 36.2km/h.
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Key battlegrounds
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Gary Neville claims that Pep Guardiola is still unsure of what his best starting XI is and suggests that Arsenal can ‘damage’ Manchester City on Wednesday night if Mikel Arteta’s side play to their ability.
In terms of players going toe to toe, such as Martinelli vs Walker, Guardiola threw a customary curveball in City’s 3-1 win over Aston Villa last week by lining his side up without recognised full-backs in a 3-2-4-1 – as he did against Spurs – and Arteta is unlikely to anticipate how Guardiola will set up his side on Wednesday.
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FREE TO WATCH: Highlights from the Premier League match between Manchester City and Aston Villa.
Indeed, the graphic below reveals how opponents have attacked City this term and shows no sign of clear weakness, with attacks coming down both flanks equally – while passes leading to goals have been fired from wide and central, deeper areas in equal measure, too.
The radar graphic below compares styles and efficiency across a raft of attacking metrics and reveals close parity almost across the board – with the exception that City attempt far more crosses and Arsenal run with the ball far more frequently.
A clear battle ground will be in the middle of the park, where the visitors edge their hosts for regaining possession. Rodri and Partey are set to play key roles in the outcome of winning the midfield battle, while Jorginho also offers considerable midfield mettle for the Gunners.
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Guardiola exclusive: Inverted full-backs explained | Why he trusts Lewis
At Tottenham, it was Rico Lewis. Against Aston Villa, Bernardo Silva took on the role. The pre-match graphics had them at left-back but on the pitch they spent much of the game alongside Rodri in midfield. Why is it that Pep Guardiola does this?
The Manchester City coach knows that his tactics will be praised, pored over and mimicked when successful. He also knows that if Lewis has the ball nicked off him for the only goal in a 1-0 defeat then he will be accused of ‘overthinking’ it once more.
But whether the decision to deploy players in that hybrid role, shuffling between left-back and the centre of midfield, is deemed the right one or not, Guardiola is clearly doing it for a reason. In conversation with him at the club’s training ground, he offers three.
Image: Bernardo Silva's touch map in Manchester City's 3-1 win against Aston Villa
“Firstly, because of the quality of the players. Secondly, because I like to play with wingers high and wide. Thirdly, because I am a big fan of the short passes so if you have more players from behind that you can bring into the middle I think you play better.
“These are the reasons why,” he tells Sky Sports.
The brilliant Bernardo was City’s player of the year in 2019, stepping into the position vacated by the injured Kevin De Bruyne. His rare adaptability means that he may now find himself asked to assume Joao Cancelo’s responsibilities instead.
It is made possible because he is smart enough to know when to ‘cheat’, allowing Guardiola to borrow a player from that back line to provide the extra man in midfield. He can leave the wingers wide, keep Erling Haaland high, knowing Bernardo is there to knit the play.
At Spurs, it was Lewis who moved inside, that so-called inverted full-back in their 3-2-5 formation when in possession. Guardiola’s assessment was that his simple passing would bring control with the ball and his recovery pace would maintain that control without it.
On that occasion, in a vitally important game in the Premier League title race, events did not play out that way. But do not expect the coach to stop believing that this is a young player with all the traits – mental, physical, tactical and technical – to perform the role.
Lewis has been dubbed ‘the Lancashire Lahm’ because it was the Bayern captain Philipp Lahm who was asked to play this way by Guardiola almost a decade ago. The technically sound full-back moved inside to build the play for his team.
Though Guardiola points to the quality of the players being a key element in persuading him to attempt this tactical ploy, it seems reasonable to assume that Dani Alves would have been capable at Barcelona. It took time for Guardiola to arrive at his answer.
“I learned. Because the opponents caused us problems and you have to find the solutions.” Teams began to recognise that the holding midfielder in Guardiola’s team needed to receive close attention. Adding a second body in there could open up the game.
But Guardiola was reluctant to lose a player further forwards. Instead it made more sense for a defender to step in. Often, teams look to do this with a centre-back. Manchester City still try it. Rodri started there alongside John Stones at Chelsea last month.
The problem is that a gap in the middle of the defence can be even riskier than one out wide. At half-time in that game at Stamford Bridge, Guardiola introduced Lewis and tasked him with taking on this role from right-back instead. That day, it worked.
“Every team plays in a different way,” says Guardiola.
“So I have to adapt. For example, Arsenal make it man-to-man so the way you attack and defend is completely different than against a team that defends their 18-yard box with 11 players. Adapting to that is one of the keys to understanding how we need to play.”
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