President Donald Trump faces imminent impeachment by the House of Representatives, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be removed from office. For the president to be ousted from the White House via impeachment, the Senate has to convict him with a two-thirds majority — a tall order, given that it’s currently in Republican hands.
On Wednesday, the House will debate and likely vote on two articles of impeachment that the House Judiciary Committee approved last week. The articles charge the president with abuse of power and obstruction of Congress, both of which are tied to the Ukraine scandal and Trump’s urging of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to investigate his political rival, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his son, Hunter Biden.
Related
What to expect from the House of Representatives impeachment vote
The House is widely expected to pass those two articles — a handful of Democrats are expected to deflect and vote against impeachment, while Republicans will likely hold the line. But impeaching a president doesn’t immediately result in their exit from the White House. (Remember Bill Clinton, anyone?)
Once the House votes, the matter moves to the Senate, which will weigh whether to convict the president. There will be a trial, over which Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts will preside.
Related
How to watch the House’s historic impeachment vote
Beyond that, there’s still some wrangling over what, exactly, the trial will look like. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell appears to have one thing in mind, while Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer wants it to go another way. And, of course, GOP senators are dealing with the president’s wants (and tweets), too.
Vox’s Matt Yglesias and Andrew Prokop laid out what is and isn’t delineated by law in the Senate’s role in impeachment and the trial:
However the trial is structured, it ends with senators voting on the two “charges” — and Trump’s removal from office would require 67 “yes” votes on one or both articles.
There are currently 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and two independents (who generally vote with Democrats) in the Senate, meaning 20 GOP members would have to defect to convict Trump. That’s … very unlikely to happen, to put it mildly. Multiple Republican senators have signaled that their minds are already made up on impeachment, and it’s unclear whether any, let alone 20, are going to vote to convict.
Your guide to the Donald Trump impeachment saga
Understand the impeachment process, from its history to what comes next. Explore the full guide here.
If the president were somehow removed from office, the line of succession would be as follows: Vice President Mike Pence, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Senate President Pro Tempore Chuck Grassley, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin. (That last scenario would mean a first lady Louise Linton.) In October, Yglesias went over nine possible impeachment scenarios, including the line of succession.
The other way to remove the president: the 25th Amendment
Conviction in the Senate is one way to remove the president, but it’s not the only one. Another option lies with the 25th Amendment of the US Constitution, which would require action from the president’s own Cabinet. Earlier this year, Prokop explained how the 25th Amendment works:
If removing the president by impeachment is unlikely, this is an even more improbable scenario. Only two presidents have ever been impeached by Congress: Johnson and Clinton, neither of whom were convicted and removed from office. Richard Nixon resigned prior to his impeachment in the House, though he likely would have been impeached and later removed from office.
But the 25th Amendment has never been invoked to remove a sitting president. In other words, if Trump goes, it will probably be the result of the ballot box in 2020.
Sourse: vox.com
