© SES of Ukraine The Kremlin uses strikes to strengthen its positions.
The drones launched by Russia along with the missiles appear to be a message. According to Ukrainian and European officials and analysts, Moscow's strikes are often timed to geopolitically important moments and aimed at symbolic targets.
Analysts say the attacks are intended to bolster Moscow’s negotiating position, and the Kremlin has not yet faced additional U.S. sanctions for its escalation. The most recent such attack came on Sunday, September 7, when a Russian ballistic missile struck the Ukrainian government building, the first strike on the government center in Kyiv since the war.
The attack came just three days after European leaders met in Paris to discuss sending troops to Ukraine after a ceasefire or peace deal. Their mission, among other things, would be to protect the Ukrainian government. Russia’s attack appeared to be a signal that such troops would be in danger, said Andrew Kramer, Kyiv bureau chief for The New York Times.
Analysts have linked major attacks to important geopolitical events, such as phone calls between President Trump and President Putin, as well as a series of direct talks between Russia and Ukraine that took place this year in Istanbul.
The Institute for the Study of War, a US think tank, has found that Russia launches more drones and missiles before or after such events, suggesting that Russian strategists see these attacks as a diplomatic signal, even though they regularly kill civilians.
An analysis of Russian strike data obtained from the Ukrainian military by The New York Times shows that after five of six phone calls between Trump and Putin, which took place from February to July of this year, Russia carried out strikes on Ukraine that were above average in intensity, and sometimes simply spectacular.
For example, the day after the July 3 phone call, Russia launched 550 drones and missiles. This series of strikes far exceeded the average of 118 munitions launched by Russia daily during the first six months of this year.
“Before the latest war talks began, military analysts warned that peace talks could open a new, bloodier phase of the conflict. According to them, both armies could fight for advantageous positions until the front stabilizes, and both governments will try to gain an advantage at the negotiating table. In this context, Russia's drone war looks like an open challenge to Trump to respond,” Cramer argues.
Kramer adds that Ukraine also appears to have timed at least one major strike to coincide with the talks. In March, on the eve of a bilateral meeting with the United States in Saudi Arabia, the Ukrainian military carried out its largest drone strike to date on Moscow. At that meeting, Kyiv announced that it would agree to an immediate and unconditional ceasefire, but Russia rejected the offer.
Recall that Putin began a new phase of the war in Ukraine after returning from China. The Russian leader is no longer trying to pretend that he is ready to end the war.
