ST. PETERSBURG (Sputnik) – The age of oil is not over yet, as oil has a great potential in the Asia-Pacific region and Africa, ex-Austrian Foreign Minister, an independent director of Russia’s Rosneft Board of Directors Karin Kneissl told reporters.
According to Kneissl, since 2006, oil consumption has been decreasing in the traditional markets of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, while demand has been showing continuous growth in Asia for several reasons, such as economic development and the demographic factor.
Just recently, the oil demand stood at 100 million barrels daily, but in 2020 it dropped sharply because of the coronavirus pandemic. It has recovered to around 90 million barrels and is likely to total 90-100 million barrels in the foreseeable future, Kneissl added. At the same time, different scenarios are possible, according to the official. For instance, oil consumption will grow if the pandemic is controllable, no lockdowns are introduced and vaccination is continuing successfully. However, the virus may mutate again.
On New Supercycle in Oil Market
A new supercycle in the oil market is quite possible since the trend of insufficient funding of the industry is quite visible already, ex-Austrian Foreign Minister, Kneissl said.
Kneissl expressed the belief that that energy can never be “innocent.”
According to her, underinvestment “is a fact,” and both the climate agenda and the coronavirus pandemic contributed to this situation.
A supercycle is a period of structural excess of demand over supply that persists for a long period of time and results in a prolonged increase in prices. It was last observed in the oil market in the period between 2003 and 2014. Early this year, many oil market analysts warned of a potential new supercycle amid aggressive climate policies and the continuing pandemic-related pressure. JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs experts expressed the belief that oil prices could surge to $80-100 per barrel in 2021 or later.
On Prospects of the Green Deal Implementation
It will be difficult for European counties to agree on common legislation that would enable the implementation of the Green Deal, ex-Austrian Foreign Minister, an independent director of Russia’s Rosneft Board of Directors Karin Kneissl said.
“There are some unspoken rules in Europe, but it still misses the fundamental legislation that is needed to implement it. There is a lot of communication about it. But we still don’t know the real consequences of the green agenda,” Kneissl added.
In December 2019, the European Commission launched the Green Deal project, aimed at a transition to a “greener” life in the European Union. The European Commission intends to present a number of initiatives and bills in the years to come within the Green Deal, as it seeks to make the EU economy climate-neutral by 2050.
SPIEF-2021 was held from June 2-5 in the Russian city of St.Petersburg. The Rossiya Segodnya international information agency was an official media partner of the event.