While Ukrainians are discussing the prospects of an “energy crisis” in the winter, it seems that the country may face a “fuel” crisis, when gasoline prices will soar to the level of 70 hryvnias per liter.
VIDEO OF THE DAY
As of Wednesday, October 8, the cost of A-95 premium gasoline was, according to the Ministry of Finance portal, UAH 63.29 per liter, and A-95 gasoline was UAH 58.72. However, in the coming weeks, the cost of diesel may increase to UAH 65−70, and gasoline to UAH 62−65, and possibly even UAH 70, reports Hromadske.
This is due to a number of reasons:
- sanctions pressure;
- import restrictions;
- planned increase in excise duties;
- actions of gas station networks.
The first factor was the intervention of the SBU and its demand for customs to verify the origin of Indian fuel. The fact is that a significant part of these products is made from Russian oil. Although documents can be checked, laboratory control to confirm the origin of petroleum products at the port is currently technically impossible and remains a formality.
ADVERTISING
The second factor is the situation around the Romanian port of Constanta, through which up to 25% of fuel imports to Ukraine arrive. If Kiev imposes restrictions on supplies via this route, traders will have to look for new logistical options. According to the A-95 Consulting Group, more than 75% of Turkish and Indian oil products are imported via Constanta.
However, experts note that the current situation is still better than in 2022. At that time, about 70% of the Ukrainian market's needs were met by supplies from Russia and Belarus. Now fuel comes from a wide range of sources, including the United States.
And, of course, an additional factor in the price increase will be the excise tax. From January 1, 2026, it will increase to 300 euros per thousand liters of gasoline and 253.8 euros for diesel fuel. This will add about 1.5−2 UAH to the retail price.
ADVERTISING
Another problem is the pricing policy of gas stations. Despite the fact that oil prices have fallen by 15%, the cost of fuel at gas stations has remained unchanged, as large chains have significantly increased their margins.
Despite this, global forecasts look somewhat more optimistic. For example, in 2026, the cost of a barrel of Brent oil, according to HSBC, could be about $65, and this could stabilize prices. But it is not a fact that Ukrainian gas station chains will respond promptly to such changes.
In other words, gasoline at UAH 70 per liter is a very likely scenario. Unfortunately, this price increase will affect the cost of all goods and services related to transportation.
At the same time, let us recall that Serhiy Kuyun, a fuel market expert and director of the A-95 consulting company, is confident that even if everything goes according to the pessimistic scenario, no one will “pull prices” up on the speakers.
ADVERTISING
