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Our tipster Jones Knows, fresh from a weekend of winners, is back to unleash his insight and betting analysis across an exciting Premier League card.
- How to book Friday’s Joshua vs Ngannou fight on Sky Sports Box Office
Any winners last weekend for Jones Knows?
- Best Bet: BTTS & Over 2.5 in Spurs vs Palace (4/5)
- Best Bet: Leon Bailey to score or assist vs Luton (10/11)
- Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals in Burnley vs Bmouth (11/10)
- Best Bet: Weekend treble (8/1)
- Correct score: Brentford 2-2 Chelsea (14/1)
- Fulham to beat Brighton & Muniz to score (100/30)
- Liverpool to win to nil (4/5)
- Man City to win 8+ corners (4/5)
- Man City to win 12+ corners (11/2)
- Wins for Villa, Bournemouth, Arsenal, Man City
Manchester United vs Everton, Saturday 12.30pm
This isn’t a bet for everyone as it’s a tough watch knowing one goal can send you packing but the half-time 0-0 correct score is generously priced here at 5/2 with Sky Bet.
I totally get why people find backing no goals an unpalatable experience but if you can stomach it, like I can, then there is always value to be had in these type of markets as bookmakers don’t price them up properly.
- Liverpool vs Man City live on Sky this Sunday – 3.45pm KO!
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- Man Utd news: Hojlund named Premier League Player of the Month
Everton, who are capable of winning at Old Trafford at 3/1 with Sky Bet, are the half-time 0-0 kings as 14 of their 27 Premier League games this season have been all-square at the break, that’s a 52 per cent strike-rate – the most of any team. So, the goalless draw at the break is always a bet I’ve got on my radar when Everton play. This looks the time to pull the trigger when assessing the opposition.
United have only scored eight first-half goals at home in 16 games this season, failing to score in 12 of those matches. No Premier League team have scored fewer first-half goals than United.
The 12.30pm timeslot is a factor too as 18 of the last 45 games to kick off on Saturday lunchtime have been 0-0 at the break, working at a 40 per cent strike-rate. All these percentages lead to that 5/2 on offer being a value call – as is the shorter price for under 1.5 first-half goals at 1/2.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Under 1.5 first half goals (1/2 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Bournemouth vs Sheffield United, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £500,000!
Bournemouth at 1/3 with Sky Bet to win a Premier League football match just feels wrong – but this is where the market is at with Sheffield United. Saying that, Chris Wilder’s side did beat Luton on the road and put up good resistance at Wolves in the 1-0 defeat. I wouldn’t be touching the Cherries at such prohibitive odds.
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James McAtee’s goalscorer and shots prices are worth a look with him being Wilder’s main man in attack and the designated penalty taker. He’s started the last seven Premier League games, hitting 10 shots across those matches with two goals dropping his way. He’s 10/11 with Sky Bet to register two or more shots and 5/1 anytime to score.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Crystal Palace vs Luton, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £500,000!
There is no sign of the Premier League goal frenzy slowing down.
In the last 60 Premier League games, 76 per cent of games have gone over 2.5 goals – that’s 46 of 60. Even those that are playing the over 1.5 goals lines at short odds will be in front as 92 per cent of the last 60 games have gone over 1.5 goals. The average goals per game in this time is 3.70.
And I think the market gets the goal line all wrong in these battles down at the bottom.
There is a clear trend developing that these type of games between relegation rivals are producing more attacking intent than what the expected models are telling the bookmakers.
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Of the 27 games involving both Sheffield United, Luton, Burnley, Nottingham Forest, Crystal Palace, Everton and Brentford this season, the overall goal average has been 3.07 per game – usually that is above the market expectation of edgy and cagey affairs. And 41 per cent of those 27 games have seen four or more goals scored.
And then you throw Luton’s recent change of style into the mix that has seen 41 goals scored in last nine Premier League games, working out at a 4.5 per game average with seven of them have gone over 3.5 goals.
I’ll be backing over 2.5 goals and both teams to score which is somehow coming out at odds against at 6/5 with Sky Bet. Huge.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals (6/5 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Wolves vs Fulham, Saturday 3pm
How does getting 10/11 with Sky Bet about a bet that has a 100 per cent strike-rate over the last nine games sound? Pretty good, eh?
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That’s the price on offer for Tosin to register at least one shot in the game, something he has achieved in his last nine starts, where he has mustered a weighty 13 shots. Marco Silva’s team are always a threat from corners and have a strong recent habit of winning them in big numbers. They won 13 at Burnley and nine at Manchester United. Tosin should give you a great run at the advertised price in a game that screams stalemate.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Arsenal vs Brentford, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £500,000!
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It’s obvious where Brentford’s problems start and end – in defence, they’ve been decimated by injuries. In 29 of their last 30 Premier League games last season, Thomas Frank was able to select Ben Mee, Ethan Pinnock and Rico Henry in front of goalkeeper David Raya. None are available now due to injury and Raya playing for Arsenal – although he can’t play this weekend.
Brentford can’t be trusted to stay switched on and defend their box against such a brutal and relentless side.
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Brentford’s Frank Onyeka compares Victor Osimhen to his team-mate Ivan Toney and adds he would love to play alongside at the west London club
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It’s now just one clean sheet in their last 17 Premier League games and if you created a table over the last 13 games, Brentford would be second bottom. And they are being priced up like a Burnley or a Sheffield United here when you assess Arsenal’s price of 2/9 with Sky Bet to win the game.
- Raya vs Ramsdale: Arteta’s goalkeeper gamble assessed
I’m looking at Brentford here with their current injury issues as a relegation-threatened team. So, in Arsenal’s last 12 games against promoted teams or teams that were relegated that season there have been 53 total goals scored, that’s an average of 4.4 per game. That average can be threatened here with Arsenal to win and over 3.5 goals at 11/8 with Sky Bet standing out.
SCORE PREDICTION: 4-1
Aston Villa vs Tottenham, Sunday 1pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £500,000!
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Ange-ball has become bland-ball over the last five games.
Performances against Brentford, Everton, Brighton, Wolves and Crystal Palace have been very scruffy. Taking 10 points from 16 is a fair return but they’ve had to work very hard for those points, falling behind in four of those matches.
That obviously points to slow starts in their matches and the numbers from their recent first halves back that up. The failed to score in four of those five first halves stat is backed up by the expected numbers which shows they’ve only averaged 0.5 worth of expected goals in the first half of those games – the second worst first-half record in that period. That’s very poor when you consider all those five games were against teams in the bottom nine.
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All of Ollie Watkins’ Premier League goals and assists so far this season
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They’re now facing an Aston Villa team that would be top of the Premier League if first halves only counted this season, winning 47 points before the break and going in ahead in 13 of their 27 matches. It’s a clear tactic from Unai Emery to play aggressively from the first whistle as since he took over in October 2022 – a 54-game sample size – only Liverpool and Man City have created more of what Opta define as ‘big chances’ in the first half (55).
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I think they’ll take this game by the scruff of the neck in the first half with the 7/4 with Sky Bet for Villa to be winning at the break looking good. Spurs may struggle to peg a team of this quality back.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Villa to win or draw (4/9 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Brighton vs Nottingham Forest, Sunday 2pm
Taking on Brighton after a midweek cup match is becoming a trend with serious substance.
Roberto De Zerbi’s ploy of going all out in cup competitions has backfired with Brighton’s season looking over already in March following their first-leg collapse to Roma.
They’ve failed to win the last nine Premier League games after a midweek cup match, including last weekend’s 3-0 reverse at Fulham. Brighton haven’t scored in six of their last 12 matches across all competitions, either. It’s just so unlike a De Zerbi team.
That means Forest, with their counter-attacking style likely to suit, look a nice price to avoid defeat at Evens with Sky Bet.
The man at the heart of Forest’s counters is Anthony Elanga – his lightning pace and dynamite dribbling are perfectly suited for Nuno’s counter-attacking style.
Since the former Spurs boss took over in December, Elanga leads the way in all key attacking metrics for Forest: shots (18), shots on target (9), big chances (9) and expected goals (4.1). Yet his goal output of just two goals is lagging behind those impressive underlying numbers.
This underperformance is keeping his goalscorer prices rather chunky and he’s a bet this weekend to score at 4/1 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Anthony Elanga to score (4/1 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
West Ham vs Burnley, Sunday 2pm
Burnley are bad but they’re not Sheffield United bad. It’s unfair to label them with the same tag.
Burnley beat the Blades 5-0 for starters in their meeting earlier this season and even on the eye-test it’s clear to see the Clarets are the superior outfit.
Even against Bournemouth on Sunday, Vincent Kompany’s men won the shot count, had more possession and racked up more opposition-box touches. They were the better team yet their inability to be ruthless in both boxes held them back – again. The betting markets, where the shrewdest opinions are found, mirrors this theory of Burnley being rated higher than just mere relegation fodder.
Either the market is getting it woefully wrong or Burnley are going to deliver on this faith and win a game soon. I trust the market.
It might come this weekend against flaky West Ham, who surely will have more than an eye on Thursday’s showdown with Freiburg. The 4/1 with Sky Bet on a Burnley victory may look short but it’s about time they delivered on such support from the betting markets.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Liverpool vs Manchester City, Sunday 3.45pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £500,000!
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If it looks like draw, quacks like a draw, then it’s probably a draw. These two clubs under these managers are like a good marriage – impossible to separate.
Just look at the last 17 games between the two. Six wins for Liverpool. Six wins for Man City. Five draws.
The Jurgen Klopp vs Pep Guardiola numbers also showcase the competitive nature of one of the great managerial rivalries.
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In 29 games between the two legendary coaches, Klopp has won 12, Guardiola 11 and there have been six draws.
We’re still very early in this ‘run-in’ period and if you offered both managers a draw now, I think they’d be taking it. There is so much football to be played.
There’s a strong possibility the game may head down the same avenue as the previous fixture this season that ended 1-1 where the last 30 minutes were a non-event. And the last time these two met in a first vs second battle during a run-in it ended 2-2 in 2022 when City went on to win the Premier League title by one point.
You can get 100/30 with Sky Bet for both teams to score and the game to end in a draw, meaning every correct drawn score is covered apart from the 0-0.
Offsides also look ripe for a bet in this blockbuster encounter.
Playing with a high-line and squeezing the game is so important to both these managers, so I’m always interested in the total offside count when teams of this nature and quality meet.
There have been 64 offsides in the last 11 meetings between Liverpool and Man City in all competitions – that averages out at 5.8 per game. Yet the market has their total offside line lower than that average with five or more offsides available at 11/8 with Sky Bet and even four or more offsides is a tempter at 4/6.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: BTTS, the match to end as a draw & five or more offsides (17/2 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Chelsea vs Newcastle, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
To be a top-class full-back in the modern day you need to be a creative force. Malo Gusto has been showing signs since the turn of the year that Chelsea just may have one on their hands. Of all their summer acquisitions, the 20-year-old could turn out to be their shrewdest purchase at just £26m.
He’s become the first name on the Chelsea teamsheet in recent weeks with his pace, guile and deadly crossing accuracy becoming a huge weapon for Mauricio Pochettino.
Image: Malo Gusto is Chelsea's assist king
Since December 23, Gusto has created 17 chances from open play for his team-mates, averaging at just over two per 90.
That output has led to him registering three assists, including sending in a beauty of a cross for Nicolas Jackson to head home against Brentford. With Newcastle vulnerable down the left flank, Gusto is going to be to the fore. In a game that should see goals flow at both ends, Gusto’s assist prices are very tempting, especially in the assist-goalscorer market.
He is 9/1 to assist a goal for Cole Palmer and 14/1 to assist a goal for Jackson.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
Anthony Joshua’s heavyweight showdown with Francis Ngannou takes place on Friday March 8, live on Sky Sports Box Office with the main event expected around 11pm. Book Joshua v Ngannou now!
Sourse: skysports.com
