Jones Knows thinks Newcastle have the defensive knowhow to frustrate Manchester City and get their top-four charge back on track.
Manchester City vs Newcastle, Saturday 12.30
It takes a brave punter – or perhaps a slightly deranged one – to back the opposition team to keep out Manchester City at home considering they have scored 82 goals in their last 24 games at the Etihad Stadium. Just the cool 3.41 goals per game then.
However, Newcastle possess the defensive structure and ability to seriously frustrate in order for me to believe that this game is going to go down a scrappy, low-scoring avenue with the under 2.5 goals line at 6/5 with Sky Bet standing out. In five games away from home in the Premier League this season against the traditional ‘big six’ and Brighton, Newcastle have conceded just three goals and kept clean sheets at Arsenal, Manchester United and The Amex – all of those ended 0-0. On average those games have seen a total of just 1.2 goals per game.
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Howe has built the best defence in the top four divisions of English football, conceding just 15 goals in total and just six in the last 14 Premier League games. Man City have only had two 0-0 draws in their last 129 home games in all competitions – time for a third then at 14/1 with Sky Bet?
If Newcastle are to play the frustration game on City then goalkeeper Nick Pope could be a shout for a yellow card too at 9/1 with Sky Bet.
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Pope has been booked for timewasting seven times in his Premier League career, including twice this season in wins over Chelsea and Tottenham.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-0
Arsenal vs Bournemouth, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
A tough betting heat this one with Arsenal at 1/5 with Sky Bet. The Gunners rate as very reliable customers for short-price backers when a bottom-half team rocks up at The Emirates. Mikel Arteta’s side are unbeaten in their last 34 home Premier League games against newly-promoted teams, winning 29.
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However, Bournemouth have showed enough attacking improvement in their last five games to make both teams to score a runner here at 6/5 with Sky Bet. Gary O’Neil’s team carry good pace and trickery in wide areas now with Dango Ouattara and Dominic Solanke does offer plenty of quality through the middle. An expected goals return of 6.55 from those five fixtures is a big effort considering they’ve played Newcastle, Brighton and Manchester City in that run.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1
Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace, Saturday 3pm
I flirted with the idea of backing Crystal Palace for relegation at 10/1 two weeks ago but new evidence has hit me square in the face to revise my thinking.
It’s the impact and importance of having Joachim Anderson and Marc Guehi available.
In 14 games under Patrick Vieira, including five games after the World Cup this season, where Palace haven’t be able to play that partnership they have won just twice, conceding 1.6 goals per 90 minutes. Compare that to the 48 times the pair have played together and you have a 32 per cent win rate with just 1.1 goals conceded.
Image: Marc Guehi has formed a great understanding with Joachim Andersen
From a big sample size, Palace’s points per game ratio doubles when Andersen and Guehi start together. And that impact has been seen in the last two fixtures where Palace drew with Brentford despite being the better side and in the 0-0 draw with Liverpool where they restricted Jurgen Klopp’s men to just 0.9 worth of expected goals.
I’m not sure Unai Emery has quite found the right balance in Villa’s play at home, so I’m happy to put faith in the Andersen-Guehi axis to lead Palace to a result with 8/11 with Sky Bet on offer for them to avoid defeat.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Brighton vs West Ham, Saturday 3pm
Such is the high risk-reward style that Roberto De Zerbi adopts, Brighton are always vulnerable to teams that can play shrewdly in transition. West Ham are one of those teams and there have been positive signs regarding their attacking output in their last two games, creating an expected goals figure of 3.37 from open play in their last two matches against Nottingham Forest and Manchester United.
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Said Benrahma (11/1 with Sky Bet) and Jarrod Bowen (12/1) are therefore worth a stab in the first goalscorer markets. Benrahma is a very streaky customer where confidence plays a huge factor in his ability to produce and he’s looked very sharp in his last two starts, grabbing two assists and a goal. Meanwhile, Bowen remains West Ham’s key attacker with their counter-attack game based around him finding pockets. He’s had 20 shots in his last eight games and was unfortunate when striking the post last weekend in the win over Forest.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Image: Jarrod Bowen is a 12/1 shot to score first at the Amex
Chelsea vs Leeds, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
The lack of imagination, tempo and structure to Chelsea’s attacks is slowly decapitating Graham Potter’s reputation week-by-week.
This is now an attack that has scored just six goals in their last 15 games across all competitions. With confidence so low, the failure to score an early goal in front of a baying Stamford Bridge crowd will make this another incredibly daunting afternoon for Potter, especially against a Leeds defence that is showing signs of being tougher to beat under Javi Gracia.
In his two games in charge the defensive process has yielded an expected goals against figure of just 0.60 as they restricted Southampton to scraps in the 1-0 win and were unfortunate to concede two sensational strikes from distance in the midweek 2-0 defeat at Fulham.
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However, they have also failed to score in five of their last eight games in all competitions so Chelsea, relatively secure at the back in Potter’s shape, should be confident of a clean sheet. It all adds up to a low-scoring affair and under 2.5 goals backers in Chelsea matches are probably in for another pay day. They have copped in 13 of the last 15 matches to a very healthy profit margin. The 10/11 with Sky Bet for the game to have less than three goals again looks a great starting point with the 0-0 correct score at 11/1 worth some pennies too.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-0
Wolves vs Tottenham, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Wolves are making a habit of saving their best football for first halves whilst Tottenham regularly finish strongly – as shown by their points haul of 47 in the second half of games which would put them joint-top with Arsenal in a second-half only Premier League.
So, investing in Julen Lopetegui’s side to start fast and Spurs to show their best in the second half makes perfect sense but trying to pinpoint which markets to attack is the tricky bit. The simple one would be split stakes on the half-time/full-time markets of Wolves/Draw (14/1 with Sky Bet) or Wolves/Tottenham (22/1) and perhaps consider the 11/4 on Wolves winning at half-time.
Another way to get a strong Wolves start on your side is to back their first-half shots on target numbers with two or more (4/6) and three or more (2/1) both standing out as exciting bets. Spurs have conceded two or more first-half shots on target in 11 of their 12 Premier League away matches this season with the overall average coming out at three per game. Wolves can hit those numbers.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Southampton vs Leicester, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
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James Maddison being touch-and-go for matches makes my life as a person tasked with making predictions and profitable betting calls very tough. His influence on whether Leicester perform or not is huge, to the extent he’s probably the most important individual player to a team in the entire league.
Leicester have taken just one point from a possible 18 without Maddison since the World Cup and with him they have averaged almost two goals per game this season. The vibes are that he’ll be available for this one, so Leicester to edge it from a match prediction perspective it is.
If he does play, I do like the chances of him making two or more fouls in the game at 3/1 with Sky Bet as he’ll be tasked with pressing the very slippery Romeo Lavia. The youngster has been the shining light for Saints this season and his ability to keep the ball in tight situations whilst drawing fouls is going to take him to the very highest echelons of the game.
Image: James Maddison is 3/1 with Sky Bet to make two or more fouls
He has been fouled 24 times in his last six appearances with central players like Alex Hunt (2), Tyler Adams (3), Enzo Fernandez (2), Joao Felix (5), Matheus Cunha (4), Christian Norgaard (2) and Bruno Guimaraes (5) all racking up multiple fouls against the Saints with Lavia at the heart. In what could be a scrappy encounter, Maddison, who averages 1.19 fouls per game and has made two or more fouls in seven of his 16 Premier League starts this season, looks overpriced at 3/1.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Nottingham Forest vs Everton, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
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Everton’s offside numbers haven’t rocketed as expected under Sean Dyche. From the start of the 2018/19 season to his final day in the job in April 2022, Dyche’s Burnley were caught offside more times than any other Premier League team. That total of 350 was 65 more than any other club as their direct style into the forward line does increase the possibilities of players straying.
So, it’s been surprising that they’ve only averaged 1.6 per game under Dyche so far which is in keeping with what the market expects. But I’m a stickler for believing in a potential angle – to my detriment mostly – so I’ve been tempted back in by Everton’s offsides prices for this game, hoping that the six-pointer style game will see Everton play on the front-foot and test the Forest offside line.
The Evens available with Sky Bet for Everton to be caught offside two or more times makes sense but the three or more (11/4) and four or more (13/2) are worth watching in the hope that the offside Dyche-ball frenzy sparks into life. Amadou Onana, who is playing higher under Dyche, has been responsible for the last two Everton offsides and can be backed here at 11/4 to stray once again.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Liverpool vs Manchester United, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
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For a team that have lost just once in their last 35 home games in the Premier League, being able to get 8/11 with Sky Bet on Liverpool in the draw no-bet market makes sense for those that like playing short. Jurgen Klopp’s men have started with 11 different defensive line-ups this season but finally all four of their first choice are fit and playing with good rhythm. Ibrahim Konate and Virgil van Dijk have completed 90 minutes as a pair just three times this season with Liverpool beating Napoli, Tottenham and Wolves.
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This is the ideal base that Jurgen Klopp wants to build from as Konate and Van Dijk are both aggressive defenders that are happy to play a high line which allows Liverpool to squeeze the game.
It’s been an incredibly draining schedule for Manchester United, playing a match almost every three days since the return from the World Cup. I’d be surprised if they’ll be able to match Liverpool’s intensity at key moments in the game.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Brentford vs Fulham, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
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Despite Fulham’s magnificent set of results, I’m still not convinced they defend the heart of the pitch with much conviction or are creating enough high-quality chances to be defined as a top-eight team.
Being good at scoring from range and being ruthlessly clinical from low-quality chances is a part of football but it’s an unsuitable long-term tactic of trying to win matches. To have won two and drawn the other in their last three games despite only creating 0.34 (vs Brighton), 0.44 (vs Wolves) and 0.22 (vs Leeds) is quite extraordinary. Football is a fine-margin sport where the underlying numbers do eventually bore out into results over a long period so a regression to more inconsistent set of results is coming for Fulham if they keep posting these types of numbers. Brentford look a fair bet to me at 19/20 with Sky Bet.
This is a team unbeaten in eight home Premier League games, winning three of their last four, conceding just three goals in their last seven games.
And I’m still convinced Fulham are vulnerable through the centre of their defence when a top-class centre-forward rocks up. Central strikers like Harry Kane, Rodrigo, Dominic Solanke, Gianluca Scamacca, Michail Antonio, Alexander Isak, Callum Wilson and Toney himself all have scored this season against Marco Silva’s men.
So taking Ivan Toney, who has seven in his last nine, to score in a Brentford win rates as one of the best wagers of the weekend at 2/1 with Sky Bet.
Image: Brentford's Ivan Toney can score in a home win at 2/1
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
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