The currency market is already witnessing a subtle but consistent weakening of the złoty. The euro is cautiously trending towards the key level of PLN 4.30. However, the euro-dollar pair has been frozen for several days.
On Wednesday at 9:50 AM, the euro exchange rate was at PLN 4.2796, unchanged from the end of Tuesday's trading. However, for the past few days, the euro-zloty exchange rate has been reaching increasingly higher daily highs. On Monday, it was almost PLN 4.28, and on Tuesday, it was PLN 4.2867.
The EUR/PLN exchange rate is thus slowly approaching the PLN 4.30 line, marking the upper limit of the sideways trend that has been ongoing since April. A possible sustained break of this level, based on technical analysis, would open the door to PLN 4.40. And we haven't seen the euro this expensive since November 2023.
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The złoty was not helped by very weak data from German industry. In June, industrial orders were 1% lower than in May, despite economists' expectations of a 1% month-on-month increase. Seasonally adjusted, this was the second consecutive decline in orders from German industry, although the first signs of recovery were visible in the spring. Germany is the largest recipient of Polish exports.
The euro-dollar pair remains unchanged, with the euro trading at $1.1580. The evening statements by Federal Reserve officials could change this situation. This will serve as a litmus test, measuring the impact of weak labor market data on policymakers' attitudes. A potential decline in these data could weaken the dollar, which would be beneficial for the Polish złoty.
Meanwhile, the American currency was trading at PLN 3.9550 in our market, only slightly lower than the day before. But still significantly lower than a week ago, when the USD/PLN exchange rate was approaching PLN 3.75.
The Swiss franc was valued at PLN 4.5743 after the Helvetic currency briefly exceeded PLN 4.60 last week. This level represents the upper limit of the sideways trend that has been in effect since April.
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